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| Title | Date | Author | Time | Event | Body | Research Area | Topics | File attachments | Image |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday Morning Meeting on “The Revision of Criminal Laws: An Assessment” | July 29, 2024 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Mr. Shantanu Sinha, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis (MP-IDSA), made a presentation on, “The Revision of Criminal Laws: An Assessment” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 29 July 2024. The session was moderated by Mr. Arvind Khare, Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and other IDSA scholars participated in the discussion. Executive SummaryIndia has undergone a substantial legal transformation with the enactment of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS), Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita (BNSS), and Bharatiya Sakshya Adhiniyam (BSA), replacing the IPC, CrPC, and Indian Evidence Act, respectively. These changes aim to modernise and streamline India's criminal justice system. The discussion centred around the potential impact of these laws on various aspects of criminal procedure, investigation, and evidence. Detailed ReportMr. Arvind Khare, Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA, commenced the meeting by providing an overview of the criminal justice administration system and the replacement of the colonial era laws formulated in the 19th and the 20th centuries by the introduction of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita, 2023, which replaced the Indian Penal Code, 1860, Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita, 2023,which replaced The Criminal Procedure Code, 1882, 1898 and 1973, and Bharatiya Sakshya Adhiniyam, 2023, which replaced the the Indian Evidence Act, 1872, further discussing whether the current system from the infrastructure point of view and the mindset point of view is adequately equipped according to the new laws for criminal justice administration or not. Mr. Khare also mentioned briefly the changes made to the registration of FIRs with the introduction of e-FIRs and Zero-FIRs. Mr. Shantanu Sinha, in his opening remarks, provided an overview of the new laws that were introduced in India making a major shift from the colonial era. These codes aim to address the shortcomings of the previous laws and adapt to the evolving challenges of the 21st century. The meeting commenced with a discussion on the date of implementation of the new laws i.e. 01.07.2024 to oversee their application and address potential challenges. The Committee for Reforms in Criminal Laws (CRCL), established in 2020 and chaired by Prof (Dr.) Ranbir Singh, reviewed criminal laws in India and their recommendations formed the basis for three new bills introduced in the Indian Parliament in August 2023. The Parliamentary Standing Committee chaired by Mr. Brij Lal reviewed the new bills and suggested revisions and recommendations. However, some committee members criticised the committee for only holding 12 sittings to deliberate on the laws and demanded more time for scrutiny. Before moving to specifics, Mr. Sinha emphasised the focus on ensuring justice to the victim, which is the key feature of the changes made. This is apparent, firstly, in the names themselves—the words “nyaya” (justice) and “nagarik suraksha” (safety and security of the citizen) make this clear and send an unambiguous message. At the same time, the rights of the accused to a fair trial are upheld firmly. The need to punish the actual perpetrators of the crime, by ensuring an honest, fair, scientific investigation; and speedy and efficient justice—so that justice is delivered in a timely manner with adequate deterrent effect for both the offender and others who may take to crime— are both met in these laws. There are also several women-centric changes in these laws; and others that protect the rights of children. For example, the definition of ‘victim’ has been widened by eliminating the need for the accused person to be formally charged of having committed the offence. Though this is not a gender-specific change, it will help all victims (including where they are entitled to compensation) including those who are women. In the IPC, sections relating to offences against woman and child were scattered throughout the text. In the BNS, they have been consolidated in Chapter 5 (Of offences against woman and child). This chapter has also been given precedence as far as the sequence in which chapters are arranged in the Act is concerned (this gives a message, but has no other legal implication, of course). These are only illustrative. The point is that several changes have been made to ensure justice to women, and also to children regardless of their gender, recognising the fact that both boys and girls are vulnerable. According to Mr. Sinha, the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita, 2023 (BNS) retains most offences from the IPC. It adds community service as a form of punishment. Sedition is no longer an offence. Instead, there is a new offence for acts endangering the sovereignty, unity and integrity of India. The BNS includes the offence of terrorism in one its sections, whose definition is the same as that provided in the UAPA. Naturally, therefore, a question would arise which law to apply when investigating such an offence. This discretion has been left to the concerned Superintendent of Police. Over time, this aspect will have to be elaborated upon and perhaps guidelines framed to ensure that there is no scope of it being challenged on the grounds of arbitrary exercise of discretion. Mr. Sinha explained that organised crime has been added as an offence in the BNS. The definition is in line with that provided in the Maharashtra Control of Organized Crime Act (MCOCA), which was the model used by other states as well while drafting their own laws to deal with this menace. It includes crimes such as kidnapping, extortion and cyber-crime committed on behalf of a crime syndicate. Petty organised crime is also an offence now. By adding this section to the BNS, there is now a law applicable across the country to deal with organised and petty organised crime—which don’t honour state boundaries and are inter-state as well as transnational— which will go a long way in tackling such criminal activity in an effective manner. Mr. Sinha mentioned murder by a group of five or more persons on grounds of certain identity markers such as caste, language or personal belief will be an offence with penalty of seven years to life imprisonment or death. By providing a separate section for this offence, a strong message has been sent that such offences will be met with strict punitive measures. Mr. Sinha further elucidated that the new legal framework also introduces more precise definitions for certain crimes. For instance, the distinction between snatching and robbery has been clarified, addressing a long-standing issue where cases of snatching were often lodged under the more serious charge of robbery. This refinement in categorising crimes is expected to lead to more accurate data collection and potentially, more effective targeted interventions. Additionally, the laws incorporate provisions for emerging crimes like cyberbullying and online fraud, reflecting the evolving nature of criminal activities in the digital age. Mr. Sinha stated that the Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita, 2023 (BNSS) which was introduced in the Lok Sabha and referred to the standing committee on August 11, 2023 replaces the Criminal Procedure Code, 1973 (CrPC). The CrPC provides for the procedure for arrest, prosecution, and bail. BNSS mandates forensic investigation for offences punishable with seven years of imprisonment or more. Forensic experts will visit crime scenes to collect forensic evidence and record the process. By making this process mandatory, and providing for expert collection of evidence, the process of investigation may well be revolutionised. The quality of evidence, and its relevance and value in court, will be significantly enhanced; by ensuring that evidence is of high quality, on the one hand, it will ensure that actual perpetrators of crime will not be able to get away because of deficiencies in collection of vital evidence. On the other hand, by assuring the element of fairness in investigation, it also helps the accused to establish their innocence, if, indeed, they are innocent, which is, of course, as a general rule, the presumption unless contradicted by due process of law. He further emphasised that all trials, inquiries, and proceedings may be held in electronic mode. Production of electronic communication devices, likely to contain digital evidence, will be allowed for investigation, inquiry, or trial. If a proclaimed offender has absconded to evade trial and there is no immediate prospect of arresting him, the trial can be conducted and judgment pronounced in his absence. Along with specimen signatures or handwriting, finger impressions and voice samples may be collected for investigation or proceedings. Samples may be taken from a person who has not been arrested. All these measures and more make the process of investigation and trial that much more efficient. There are some concerns, as well. There are questions of data security, and other such concerns relating to electronic devices and communication. Further, the demeanour of a witness in judicial proceedings is an important aspect of his/her testimony. At times, especially during cross-examination, it is important to assure the Court that the witness is deposing without any fear, and not under any compulsion. Physical presence of witnesses in Court aids this process. When deposing using electronic means, this may not always be the case. Also, for example when recording searches and seizures through audio-visual means, the mere fact that electronic recording has been done should not lend the evidence any more of an imprint of credibility that that desired by law. Investigating officers have to be trained, retrained, and then again trained, to follow the best guidelines, and ensure justice to the victim as well as the accused. Mr. Sinha said that the BNSS allows up to 15 days of police custody, which can be authorised in parts during the initial 40 or 60 days of the 60 or 90 days, respectively, in which investigations are carried out (depending on the punishment attracted by the offence; basically, the gravity of the offence). Concerns have been raised that this may lead to denial of bail for the entire period of 40 or 60 days (as the case may be) as magistrates may be reluctant to grant bail on the ground that the accused may be required to be remanded to police custody to help in the investigation, provided the police has not exhausted the 15 days custody. However, it has been clarified that merely on this ground bail will not be denied. Mr. Sinha critically assessed the new system's preparedness to effectively serve India's needs, exploring the ramifications of e-registration of FIRs, the concept of zero FIRs. The introduction of e-FIRs and zero FIRs is a step towards improving accessibility to justice. The law encourages the use of electronic means for filing and processing FIRs, which within three days of the filing needs to be signed by the informant, which can expedite the process and reduce paperwork. However, the effectiveness of these measures hinges on robust implementation and adequate infrastructure. With reference to the Bharatiya Sakshya Adhiniyam, 2023 (BSB2) Mr. Sinha explained that this replaces the Indian Evidence Act, 1872 (IEA). It retains most provisions of the IEA including those on confessions, relevancy of facts, and burden of proof. The IEA provides for two kinds of evidence - documentary and oral. Documentary evidence includes primary (original documents) and secondary (that proves the contents of the original). The BSA retains the distinction. It classifies electronic records as documents. Under the IEA, electronic records are categorised as secondary evidence. The BSA classifies electronic records as primary evidence. It expands such records to include information stored in semiconductor memory or any communication devices (smartphones, laptops). The BSA expands secondary evidence to include: (i) oral and written admissions, and (ii) the testimony of a person who has examined the document and is skilled in the examination of documents. While interacting with MP-IDSA-Scholars regarding instances where citizens have faced difficulties in registering FIRs, particularly in snatching cases, Mr.Sinha emphasised the importance of persistence in such situations. He stated that if a police officer refuses to register an FIR where it relates to a cognisable offence, citizens should utilise remedies that the law provides. The first step would be to write to the Superintendent of Police, and, if there is still no action, then they should make a complaint before the jurisdictional judicial magistrate. With changes in BNSS, such problems have found an effective redressal as citizens can file e-FIRs (to be signed within 3 days), and can file zero FIRs too (i.e. information regarding a cognisable offence can be given in any police station irrespective of whether the offence took place in its jurisdiction.) Mr.Sinha emphasised that under no circumstances should citizens give up on their right to lodge a complaint. Mr. Sinha mentioned that significant amendments to provisions governing complaints against public servants and the role of forensic experts have been made. The controversial expansion of police custody from the previous 15-day limit to 60 and even 90 days, while aimed at complex investigations, it is essential to establish stringent safeguards to prevent misuse. Regular judicial oversight and strict adherence to legal provisions are imperative. The newly mandated 90-day update on investigation status for victims or informants was analysed in depth for its potential to enhance transparency and accountability. Specific provisions such as those related to complaint registration, preliminary inquiries, and the alignment of terrorism-related definitions with the UAPA were scrutinised. Provisions safeguarding the rights of children and women were meticulously examined to assess their congruence with principles of justice and gender equality. Questions and CommentsAmbassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA complimented Mr. Shantanu Sinha and appreciated the detailed presentation and further highlighted the absence of provisions related to road rage and the criminalisation of mere bystanding during a crime as significant lacunae in the newly enacted criminal laws. He emphasised the need for specific laws addressing the growing menace of road rage, which has claimed numerous lives. Additionally, he advocated for a remedy for the individuals who witness a crime but choose to remain passive, underscoring the importance of active citizenship and community responsibility in preventing criminal activities. Participants expressed profound concerns regarding the challenges inherent in implementing these sweeping legal reforms and anticipated legal challenges that may arise. Dr. Prashant Kumar Singh, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA inquired about the burden of proof, whether it lies upon the prosecution or the defence, a fundamental aspect of the criminal jurisprudence. He further asked the scope of malicious investigations and their impact on society quoting the Nambi Narayan case. Col. Vivek Chadha(Retd), Senior Fellow made a query regarding the process followed for the formation of these laws and the role played by the citizens in formulating them. Col. (Dr.) Rajneesh Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow asked Mr.Sinha whether the notion of the hefty process of filing an FIR with the police has been simplified with the introduction of the new criminal laws. Report has been prepared by Ms. Navdeep Kaur, Intern, Internal Security Centre, MP-IDSA. |
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| Monday Morning Meeting on Prime Minister Modi’s Visit to Russia: Key Takeaways | July 22, 2024 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. Rajorshi Roy, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA, made a presentation on Prime Minister Modi’s Visit to Russia: Key Takeaways” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 22 July 2024. The session was moderated by Ms. Anandita Bhada, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and other IDSA scholars participated in the discussion. Executive SummaryThe meeting focussed on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to Russia, his first since the COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of the Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. The visit highlighted the relevance of India-Russia relations amidst shifting global dynamics. The economic agenda was a central focus, with nine economic agreements signed and plans to achieve US$100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030. PM Modi’s visit highlighted India's strategic autonomy and its ability to balance relations with major global powers. The oil trade between the two countries has been particularly beneficial for India while helping stabilise global energy markets. Detailed ReportMs. Anandita Bhada initiated the discussion by highlighting various aspects of the visit including the scope of some of the agreements signed between India and Russia. Dr. Rajorshi Roy informed the audience about Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first visit to Russia since the COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of the Russian military operation in Ukraine. This visit highlighted the relevance of India-Russia relations amidst shifting global dynamics. One of the most significant outcomes of the visit was the ambitious target set by both nations to achieve US$100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030. The economic agenda was a central focus, with nine agreements signed. The Joint Statement outlined the commitment to unlock their economic potential through Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs), Unified Payments Interface (UPI), and energy initiatives. Plans were also made to open two new consulates in Kazan and Yekaterinburg and introduce e-visas in four days, reflecting a strong commitment to enhance connectivity and people-to-people linkages. In addition to these, joint Research & Development (R&D) and expanded military exchanges in the defence sector were discussed, signalling a deepening of strategic ties. Dr. Roy highlighted Russia’s grand strategy of actively seeking new global partners, particularly the Global South, to withstand Western pressure. Dr. Roy also informed the audience how the visit highlighted India's strategic autonomy and its ability to balance relations with major global powers. The strengthening of India-Russia ties is seen as a way to reinforce India ’s strategic autonomy. The oil trade between the two countries has been particularly beneficial for India while also helping stabilise global energy markets. Challenges remain, such as trade imbalance, the payment mechanism and the overhang of Western sanctions. The "Make in India" initiative and the cost of a drift in India-Russia partnership were also discussed, emphasising the need for adding more pillars to the bilateral relationship. Questions and CommentsThe presentation was followed by comments from Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy. He stated how Prime Minister Modi's visit was extraordinary, highlighting India's vision for autonomy amid global tensions. Trump's critique of Biden's handling of international affairs underscores the complexity of the situation, wherein the former is suggesting that the U.S. should engage with Russia. Putin's determination in the Ukraine conflict hints at a prolonged war. Although India's role as a mediator seems ambitious, given the proxy nature of the war, its diplomatic efforts remain notable. This was followed by a lively Q&A session. Report was prepared by Mr. Tatsat Pati, Intern, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA. |
Europe and Eurasia | |||||
| Monday Morning Meeting Report: Japan’s Currency Crisis and its Implications | July 15, 2024 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. Arnab Dasgupta, Research Analyst at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis made a presentation on “Japan’s Currency Crisis and its Implications” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 15 July 2024. The session was moderated by Dr. R. K. Dhawan, Associate Fellow at MP-IDSA. Scholars of MP-IDSA attended the meeting. Executive SummaryJapan made a significant transition from exerting hard power to prioritising soft power. The Japanese model was a mix of free market and socialist system. Later on, several Southeast Asian countries also adopted a similar approach to achieve their development goals. Countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia also adopted this economic model, and China and Vietnam have followed the same. This Japanese economic model was referred to as the ‘flying geese’ model. In the early 1990s, the collapse of massive assets led to a crisis in the Japanese currency. Several factors contributed to the devaluation of the Yen, including the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, as well as the huge selling of the yen, resulting in a decline in its value. Detailed ReportThe session started with remarks by Dr. R.K. Dhawan on how the value of the Yen degraded over a period of time. He talked about the Plaza Accord according to which Japan was pressurised to appreciate the Yen and that led to the downfall of the Japanese economy and what we call lost decades. Japan has not been yet able to recover from it. Dr. Dasgupta commenced his presentation with an introduction to the rise of the Japanese economy after World War II. Japan from the beginning was the preminent economic power in the 1950s and 1960s. The rise was remarkable because it was risen from the ashes of the 1940s and after suffering two nuclear bombs which no country has faced. In his presentation, Dr. Dasgupta explained it all in brief. In his presentation, he talked about the Japanese economy of the post 1940s and 50s era. After the decade when Japan surrendered, the country put into place a revolutionary system of ‘guided capitalism’, that would give a growth rate averaging around 8 to 10 per cent until the 1970s and 7 per cent until the 1990s which led to international economists coining the “Flying Geese” model for Asia and all over the world. He emphasised the role of the US in reviving the Japanese economy during the Japanese economy’s lost decades. The accommodative policies of the US not only opened the market for its domestic manufacturers but also pegged the Yen to a fixed value against the dollar. However, the system that guided Japan to success also contained the roots essentially of its downfall because Japan’s antitrust laws encouraged the formation of giants called keiretsu. He also highlighted the significance of the keiretsu and the impact of the real estate bubble. This economic bubble collapsed between 1991 and 1995, leading to a period of deflation in Japan. Consequently, there was a reduction in the prices of goods and services, accompanied by diminished cash flow and corporate profits. This downturn resulted in decreased production and a decline in employment opportunities, leading to a significant rise in unemployment. Subsequently, consumers began to economise on goods and services, contributing to an overabundance of supply in the market. Further, he explained the effects of deflation in Japan. The main leading banks of Japan were on the verge of collapse. Many companies were red-listed. The wages of the employees were kept stagnant. People started saving which led to depressed consumption. He talked about the Rise of Abenomics where he explained changes in the monetary and fiscal policy and some structural changes that were made. He explained the changes in the monetary policy which led to the crisis in the Japanese economy. The first target of Abenomics was setting an inflation target of 2 par cent so that the prices of goods would rise which would stimulate more production. The second was setting Yen volatility control so that the Yen became stable. Then was the negative interest rates under which banks had to pay the entity that was holding their funds. Next was the public investment by which the government would intend to invest capital directly into the economy. Finally, the quantitative easing (QE) by which the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would buy government and non-government bonds in the open market, and in effect, it could use credit liquidity to buy back its own debt. Besides all these, there was a fiscal policy that used consumption tax hikes to fund spending. They brought in structural reforms to strengthen antitrust laws, boost women’s participation, and increase immigration. When Haruhiko Kuroda was appointed as governor of the BoJ, he came up with some changes and initiated Yield Curve Control (YCC) in 2016, with rates of 0 per cent long-term, -0.1 per cent short and medium-term. Now the Banks had to pay BoJ interest for their deposits. After the implementation of these changes, the Abe government had some success in increasing GDP and inflationary expectations were created. Further, Dr. Dasgupta explained the failures of Abenomics. Some of them are that the real GDP growth declined, consumption rates remained stagnant, the government deficit grew, and labor force participation lowered as structural reforms were never implemented. Dr. Dasgupta explained the ramifications of Abenomics for the Japanese economy, highlighting a fluctuating pattern in comparison to the dollar. This was accompanied by a decline in both productivity and consumption, alongside mild inflation resulting from the aggressive quantitative easing (QE) that bolstered the value of the Yen vis-à-vis the USD. However, with the assumption of Kazuo Ueda as the Governor of the BoJ, the QE was terminated. Consequently, Japan found itself designated as a currency manipulator, rendering it susceptible to potential sanctions. Of note, the US initiated non-cooperation with Japan during the US-Japan-South Korea meeting, emphasising the need for close consultation. He also spoke on the impact on tourism and defense modernisation, stating that Japan has increased its defense modernisation budget, ranking 6th in expenditure. Questions and CommentsScholars at MP-IDSA posed a diverse range of inquiries. Questions were raised about the internal pressure on Japan to strengthen the Yen, the structural changes in the Japanese economy, the potential impact of advancing Chinese technology, the decline of Japanese technology, and the role of the US in reinvigorating the Japanese economy. Report was prepared by Mr. Rajnish Kumar, Intern, Southeast Asia and Oceania Centre. |
East Asia | Japan | ||||
| Report of Monday Morning Meeting on China’s Nuclear Arsenal: An Assessment | July 08, 2024 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Mr. Niranjan Oak, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA, made a presentation on “China’s Nuclear Arsenal: An Assessment” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 8 July 2024. The session was moderated by Dr. Rajiv Nayan, Senior Research Associate, MP-IDSA. The scholars of the Institute were in attendance. Executive SummaryThe growth of the Chinese nuclear arsenal is on account of threat perception coming from the US. China is moving away from a minimum deterrence policy, although the minimum is a subjective term; the sheer number of estimated warheads is huge and is increasing every year. The character of the stockpile is changing, and is getting diversified which in turn is reflected in all three legs of the triad. There is a marked improvement in both conventional and nuclear capabilities in terms of precision, mobility and technology. Detailed ReportBefore introducing the Speaker, Dr. Rajiv Nayan introduced the topic by providing important background details about the release of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report on the nuclear stockpile in the world. Mr. Niranjan Oak began his presentation by explaining the organisation of the Chinese nuclear force structure. Among the four services of the People’s Liberation Army, PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) is in charge of nuclear and conventional land-based missiles, which in turn is commanded by the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, currently held by President Xi Jinping. Following Xi Jinping’s arrival at the helm of affairs, the name of the Second Artillery Force was changed to PLARF. Subsequently, Mr. Oak explained the expanding capacity of PLARF in terms of its increasing number of bases and brigades, as well as the evolution of China’s land-based missiles, the mainstay of which is the Dongfeng series of missiles. Regarding sea-based missiles, China has fielded six Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). Each of these SSBNs can carry up to 12 three-stage solid fuelled JL2 and JL3 Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBM). In addition, China is also developing next-generation Type 096 SSBNs with carrying capacity of up to 24 SLBMs. Mr. Oak also explained China’s aircraft and aircraft delivered missile capabilities, supposedly the weakest link in the Chinese nuclear triad. The H-6N is China’s first nuclear-capable bomber with the capability to be refueled in mid-air. To arm H-6N, China has been developing two new air-launched ballistic missiles. The Chinese bombers can carry CJ-20 air launched cruise missiles with conventional and nuclear warheads. China is said to be developing its first long-range strategic bomber H-20 with an anticipated range of more than 10,000 kilometers and a stealth design. Mr. Oak then touched upon Chinese Hypersonic missile capabilities. There are two types of hypersonic missiles- hypersonic boost glide vehicles and hypersonic cruise missiles. China has been carrying out tests of DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicles since December 2014. It is reported to possess a range of 1600-2400 kilometers. China has deployed a DF-17 medium-range missile system equipped with hypersonic glide vehicles since 2019. According to reports, China has conducted a successful flight test of an intermediate-range ballistic missile DF-27 with hypersonic traits, thus, increasing range and delivery capacity of China. Additionally, China reportedly conducted a test of the Starry Sky 2 Xingkong-2 hypersonic cruise missile. This system is believed to have a range of 700-800 km and a top speed of Mach 6 with a specific feature of wave rider flight vehicle after the launch. Mr. Oak detailed another important military technology, the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS). In 2021, China conducted a test of FOBS equipped with a hypersonic boost glide vehicle. Regarding the 2021 revelation of missile silos (through satellite imageries), reports indicates that China has built approximately 350 silos. Considering that China has Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) technology, it can store more than 1000 missiles. As SIPRI data puts it, the Chinese nuclear stockpiles are 500 nuclear warheads. The same report claims that the number of Chinese ICBM's is likely to reach or even exceed the number held either by Russia or US, which is around 400 ICBMs. Subsequently, Mr. Oak talked about the changing Chinese nuclear posture. The emergence and relevance of the Launch on Warning system in Chinese nuclear strategy was explored. The studies by both western and Chinese academia corroborate this development. The Science of Military Strategy 2020 discusses how the US and Russia maintain a state of high alert when it comes to strategic weapons, and therefore, even China should maintain a state of high alert. Mr. Oak, then, elaborated upon the drivers of China’s changing nuclear profile. First and foremost in this category is the US’s improved conventional capability. The collapse of INF Treaty along with development of more advanced missiles like land based Tomahawk missiles and SM-6 missiles is threatening to China. Secondly, a section of experts in China believe that US conventional counter-force capabilities, together with tactical weapons would degrade or even eliminate China’s secure second strike. The third factor is Taiwan. China wants to annex Taiwan, if necessary, by force. Most recently, Xi reiterated his reunification pledge in April 2024. The fourth factor is Great Power status wherein Mr. Oak concluded that China has resources and material wherewithal to go for nuclear modernisation, thus achieving great power status. After describing the drivers of change in China’s nuclear posture, Mr. Oak shared his own assessment. The growth of the Chinese nuclear arsenal is due to the threat perception from the US. China is moving away from the minimum deterrence policy, although minimum is a subjective term; the sheer number of estimated warheads is huge and is increasing every year. The character of the arsenal is changing in all three legs of the triad, and is diversifying. There is a marked improvement in both conventional and nuclear capabilities in terms of precision, mobility and technology. Technological advances are making the PLA develop and deploy hypersonic weapons, MIRVs and FOBS. At the operational level, nuclear forces are on high alert, leading to compressed timelines for decision making. In the end, Mr. Oak explained what the above developments meant for India and what India could do in order to gain a competitive edge. Even if India has numerically fewer nuclear warheads than China, India needs to disperse its nuclear warheads and launchers innovatively throughout the country to survive the first strike. The India-China nuclear dyad has already entered a classic stability-instability paradox. There is less likelihood of nuclear confrontation. But there are increasing chances of conventional confrontation. With nuclear stability at the strategic level; India needs to improve its conventional capabilities. Before opening the floor for questions and comments, Dr. Nayan made pertinent observations with respect to a range of issues related to FOBS, China’s defence modernisation in terms of nuclear advancement, the Chinese ‘no first use’ policy, China-Russia collaboration and growing US-China confrontation essentially pushing up the world’s defence budget. The Report is prepared by Mr. Abhishek Verma, Research Analyst, Internal Security Centre, MP-IDSA. |
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| Lecture by Dr. Samir V. Kamat, DRDO on Technology Vision 2047 | July 03, 2024 | Eminent Persons' Lecture Series |
The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), organised a lecture by Dr. Samir V. Kamat, Secretary, Department of Defence R&D and Chairman, Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), under the Eminent Persons Lecture Series on 3 July 2024. The theme of his talk was “Technology Vision 2047”. The event was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA. Scholars of the Institute were in attendance. Executive SummaryDr. Samir V. Kamat discussed the transition driven by rapid technological advancements and disruptive technologies that are transforming warfare in the present multipolar world. He highlighted India’s strategic potential to impact the technology landscape and stressed the importance of preparedness for emerging conflicts. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) plays a pivotal role in this, supported by academia and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). Dr. Kamat outlined progress in various defence sectors, including missile systems, armoured vehicles, and aeronautics, while acknowledging challenges such as semiconductor production and the need for global supply chain integration. He also emphasised initiatives like Atmanirbhar Bharat and Make-in-India to boost self-reliance and technological innovation, with a focus on next-generation platforms and advanced technologies. Despite current R&D spending challenges, efforts are underway to increase private sector involvement and foster a risk-taking culture to drive innovation. Detailed ReportThe Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy delivered his opening remarks by introducing Dr. Samir V. Kamat. Dr. Samir V. Kamat started his lecture by highlighting the significant transformation from a unipolar to a multi-polar world order which is accompanied by an accelerating rate of technological change and the emergence of disruptive technologies, which are reshaping the nature of warfare. Dr. Kamat emphasised that India is strategically positioned to influence the evolving technology landscape, necessitating a focused approach to emerging technological domains. The accelerating rate of evolution of disruptive technologies, particularly in cyber and information domain, are reshaping modern combat, underscoring the need for preparedness before the rise of any major conflicts. The defence research and development (R&D) landscape is primarily driven by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), with significant support from academia and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). Dr. Kamat highlighted the role of the DRDO and its responsibility to design and development of defence systems, which are subsequently produced by Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) or private industries through Transfer of Technology (ToT) agreements. India’s defence sector encompasses a broad spectrum of systems, including ballistic missiles, armoured vehicles, artillery, small arms, and advancements in aerospace and aeronautics. Significant progress has been made in various technological domains within the defence sector. In missile systems, the development of surface-to-air and cruise missiles, including the Smart Anti-Airfield Weapon (SAAW), alongside advanced anti-tank missile systems and multi-barrel rocket systems, highlight the strides in enhancing defence capabilities. For armoured vehicles and land systems, innovations include the creation of lightweight single-span mountain footbridges (MFB) and 46-meter MLC-70 modular bridges, as well as lightweight advanced infantry floating footbridges and various military bridging systems and land-based platforms In aeronautics, the development of the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas Mk-IA has been a key focus, along with DRDO Netra Airborne Early Warning and Control System (AEW&CS). However, challenges remain, particularly in semiconductor device production and the need for investment in critical material processing facilities. Additionally, Dr. Kamat stressed that integrating into the global supply chain is crucial for economic viability and reducing reliance on imports. The infantry weapons segment has seen the development of the JVPC 9mm machine pistol, multi-mode hand grenades, and 40mm Under Barrel Grenade Launcher (UBGL) grenades. Additionally, indigenous replacement programs for existing munitions, including anti-tank and artillery ammunition, are being pursued to enhance self-reliance in defence supplies. In alignment with Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi’s vision of Viksit Bharat 2047 and a leader in defence technology, initiatives such as ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’and ‘Make in India’ are being vigorously pursued. These include enhancing technological capabilities through initiatives like the Defence Production Partner concept and fostering collaboration with industries for design, development, and production. Streamlining technology transfers and modifying policies to alleviate royalty burdens are part of this vision. Efforts to increase capacity through partnerships with educational institutions and promote innovation via contests and funding are underway, with a focus on developing complex systems and disruptive technologies. Dr. Kamat emphasised prioritising next-generation platforms like advanced combat aircraft, high-endurance autonomous underwater vehicles, and future-ready combat vehicles, along with next-gen weapons and sensors such as long-range precision strike capabilities, laser and microwave weapons, and advanced propulsion technologies. Balancing speed and accuracy in new technologies and emphasising space and satellite technologies for defence are key future challenges and opportunities. Overall, the lecture outlined India’s strategic direction in defence technology, highlighting achievements, challenges, and plans for innovation, collaboration, and capacity building. Dr. Kamat mentioned that significant progress has been made in various technological domains, including the development of the Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) and electric propulsion system for ships. Efforts are also focused on enhancing underwater domain awareness and networked systems to bolster maritime security. In addition, there is a concerted push towards improving space situational awareness and Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR), with particular emphasis on space-based ISR capabilities. Cyber capabilities and secure communication technologies, such as quantum communication, are also being prioritised. Key areas of focus in research and development include Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML), quantum technologies encompassing communication, sensing, and computing, as well as cognitive and anti-stealth technologies. Efforts are also being directed towards hypersonic missile defence and directed energy weapons, alongside advancements in materials and manufacturing processes, including post-quantum cryptography. He further stated that initiatives have been undertaken to establish laboratories for young scientists to foster innovation within a start-up culture. This includes collaboration with academia and industry to develop cutting-edge technologies. Additionally, the establishment of industry-academia centres of excellence aim to advance domain-specific technologies. Projects within these centres are reaching maturity and transitioning to the industry, positioning them for market readiness. A notable achievement has been the significant reduction in the weight of bulletproof jackets while maintaining their protective capabilities. In addition of this, new facilities are being developed for testing hypersonic vehicles, drones, and other advanced systems, ensuring comprehensive evaluation and refinement of these technologies. Despite challenges such as low research and development (R&D) spending (currently at 0.65 percent of GDP) compared to other countries, strategies are being implemented to increase private sector involvement in R&D. There is also a push to cultivate a risk-taking mindset to drive innovation and establish leadership in technology. However, for the private sector to effectively engage in risk-taking, improved government policies are necessary and at present, there is a strong emphasis on shifting mindsets to embrace and learn from failures. While challenges exist, there is an optimistic outlook towards achieving the set goals through the right strategies and support mechanisms. Questions and CommentsThe main questions posed addressed various aspects of advancing India’s defence sector. Key areas included enhancing education in defence laboratories for better implementation of advanced techniques and identifying primary focus areas for disruption in defence technology, including understanding adversaries’ capabilities. Strategies for becoming a leading defence exporter, like emulating successful countries, were discussed, along with measures to boost private sector participation and fostering investment. Emphasis was placed on offering high-quality or cost-effective solutions, driving innovation, and necessary mindset changes to lead in defence technology. Strategic planning to meet demands, build global competitiveness, and improve collaborations was deemed essential. Also that, leveraging India’s economic status for global defence positioning and focusing on potential disruptions in defence technologies are crucial. Further, enhancing geopolitical influence to boost exports, addressing current production gaps, and improving private sector participation were emphasised. In his concluding remarks, Dr. Samir V. Kamat spoke on issues surrounding hypersonic technology and its distinct challenges. While hypersonic glide vehicles are relatively easier to intercept due to their predictable trajectory, hypersonic cruise missiles, capable of manoeuvrability, pose a greater threat. In the realm of manufacturing, 3D printing is advancing rapidly, with a focus on metal powders, though limitations in component size persist. He also stated that biotechnology, primarily applied to biodefence, has limited relevance in this context. Engine technology has seen improvements with single crystal turbine blades, but integration challenges remain. According to Dr. Kamat, material science necessitates advanced materials for enhanced performance, requiring collaborative efforts. The report has been prepared by Dr. Shayesta Nishat Ahmed, Research Analyst, Defence Economics and Industry Centre, MP-IDSA. |
North America & Strategic Technologies | Defence Technology, Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) | ||||
| Monday Morning Meeting on “Sheikh Hasina’s Visit to India and India-Bangladesh Relations” | July 01, 2024 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA, made a presentation on “Sheikh Hasina’s Visit to India and India-Bangladesh Relations” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 1 July 2024. The session was chaired by Dr. Om Prakash Das, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and other IDSA scholars participated in the discussion. Executive SummaryThe meeting focused on Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to India. The visit focused on enhancing collaboration in terms of defence cooperation, trade and commerce, frontier technologies including civil nuclear, oceanography and space technology. Both nations reiterated their commitment for a free, open, inclusive, secure, and rule-based Indo-Pacific region. Detailed ReportDr. Om Prakash Das convened the meeting by highlighting the significance of Sheikh Hasina’s visit on 21-22 June 2024, which was her first bilateral visit since being re-elected in January 2024, and also her second visit to India within a month following her attendance at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s oath-taking ceremony. This visit was notably significant as it was the first state visit after Prime Minister Modi's re-election for a third consecutive term. Dr. Anand Kumar began his presentation by emphasising the importance of bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh and their mutual desire to guide the relationship into a new era of future-oriented partnership. Dr. Kumar outlined Sheikh Hasina’s visit to China in coming times, ongoing foreign currency crisis in Bangladesh and PM Hasina’s aim to ensure the continuous supply of essential commodities which are essential for maintaining political stability in Bangladesh, as the possible reasons for her visit. Dr. Kumar informed the audience about the outcomes of the visit, marked by the signing of ten Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) and thirteen announcements. Economic and trade cooperation between the two countries saw significant strides, with agreements to commence negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and Bangladesh offering two Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to India in Mongla and Mirsharai. Dr. Kumar highlighted that while trade and commerce between India and Bangladesh have seen significant improvements, there remains limited engagement in defence industrial cooperation. India proposed defence industrial cooperation to modernise the Bangladesh Armed Forces, and an agreement was signed to train 350 Bangladesh police officers. Dr. Kumar pointed out that transit and connectivity were major themes, with India expressing its intent to expand connectivity in physical, energy, and digital forms. MoUs were signed between the railways of both countries. According to Dr. Kumar, an important development was India's agreement to provide transit facilities for Bangladeshi goods to Nepal and Bhutan via Indian railways. Dr. Kumar drew attention to the agreements signed on energy and digital connectivity, including a pact between the National Payment Corporation of India (NPCI) and Bangladesh Bank to launch Unified Payment Interface (UPI) in Bangladesh. Further collaboration in frontier technologies was agreed upon, including civil nuclear, oceanography, and space technology. Humanitarian issues were prominently discussed, with the renewal of an MoU between the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the Ministry of Disaster Management for disaster relief. Additionally, India introduced e-Visas for Bangladeshi medical patients seeking treatment in India. On regional and diplomatic issues, Dr. Kumar noted the commitment of both nations for a free, open, inclusive, secure, and rules-based Indo-Pacific region. He informed about India’s commitment of continued support for resolving the Rohingya crisis. Dr. Kumar discussed the ongoing Teesta river issue and marked it as important to the extent that it can affect bilateral relations. He further informed that the Ganges Water Treaty, signed in 1996, is being renewed by mutual consent, with a technical team established to conduct groundwork. Dr. Kumar reiterated the Indian Government’s commitment to strengthen the country's relations with its neighbours by highlighting remarks made by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar on Sheikh Hasina’s visit. The presentation concluded by acknowledging the mutual efforts of both nations to strengthen bilateral ties by ensuring that their relationship remains "future ready." Questions and CommentsAmbassador Sujan R. Chinoy appreciated the detailed presentation by Dr. Kumar. He addressed several key challenges in bilateral ties by pointing out the prevailing sentiment among the Bangladeshi people regarding limited access to the Indian market. Amb. Chinoy queried the way forward to address this issue. He highlighted the complexities of dealing with smugglers in the border areas, often armed and travelling in large numbers at night, and the unwillingness of the Bangladeshi side to address these issues. Additionally, he raised concerns about the illegal entry of both Bangladeshis and Rohingyas into India, questioning the extent of India’s responsibility, given that it is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention. During the Q&A session, Dr. Kumar responded to the question about Bangladeshi access to the Indian market by noting the interests of Indian businessmen must also be considered, necessitating detailed groundwork for a balanced approach. Addressing the question about West Bengal’s stance on water issues, Dr. Kumar explained the complexities surrounding the Teesta river, citing significant water usage upstream and Chinese involvement in reservoir construction. He suggested that India could assist Bangladesh in building reservoirs to mitigate Chinese influence, utilising the existing US$ 7 billion credit line, majority of which is still not used. Gp. Capt. R.K. Narang inquired about the relative ease for Bangladeshis to set up companies in India compared to the challenges faced by Indian businesses in Bangladesh and the persistence of anti-India sentiments. Dr. Kumar attributed these sentiments to historical factors and the growing influence of Gulf-based Islamist ideology. Mr. Arvind Khare, Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA, inquired about West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s opposition to water discussions between India and Bangladesh without the State's consultation, questioning if her concerns align with national objectives. Dr. Kumar stated that while consultation with the state government is desirable, foreign policy matters come under the central government. Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, mentioned the strategic importance of the Chittagong-Kolkata train route and the launch of the e-Suvidha Portal for border trade, highlighting the logistical advancements. She also said that Sheikh Hasina’s visit to China should not be seen as detrimental to India’s interests given the significant Indian investments. Report prepared by Puspa Kumari, Intern, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi. |
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| Roundtable Discussion on India-Iran Relations: Chabahar and Recent Developments in Iran | June 11, 2024 | Round Table |
On 11 June 2024, a Roundtable Discussion on “India-Iran Relations: Chabahar and Recent Developments in Iran” was organised at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA). The discussion was chaired by the Director General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy. The Speakers were Ambassador Yashvardhan Kumar Sinha, former Central Information Commissioner, Ambassador Gaddam Dharmendra, Dean, Sushma Swaraj Institute of Foreign Service (SSIFS), Ministry of External Affairs, and Dr. Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA. Executive SummaryThe strategic importance of the Chabahar Port is crucial in strengthening India-Iran cooperation and enhancing regional connectivity. The Port’s development is central to India’s endeavors to establish a reliable trade route to Afghanistan and Central Asia. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), with Chabahar Port as a crucial link, holds immense significance. The recent long-term contract between India’s India Port Global Ltd (IPGL) and Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organisation (PMO) underscores India’s commitment to furthering the port’s development and operations. Despite U.S. sanctions, the Chabahar Port’s operational viability has been facilitated through sanctions waivers, enabling the shipment of essential commodities like wheat and pulses from India to Afghanistan. Iran remains a close regional partner for India, particularly in enhancing connectivity and economic cooperation with Afghanistan and Central Asia. Detailed ReportAmbassador Sujan R. Chinoy made opening remarks at the roundtable discussion. He provided a comprehensive overview of the close India-Iran bilateral relations, emphasising their importance and evolving dynamics. He highlighted the historical context, noting Iran’s support for India at the United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNCHR) against Pakistan’s attempt for a resolution on human rights violations. The importance of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) was emphasised, with Chabahar Port as a crucial link to Central Asia and Eurasia. Amb. Chinoy illustrated the Port’s operational significance by citing the shipment of 2.5 million tons of wheat and 2,000 tons of pulses from India to Afghanistan, facilitated by U.S. sanctions waivers. He noted that India’s position regarding connectivity with Afghanistan aligns with the U.S. vision. Amb. Chinoy also mentioned the geopolitical implications of the joint naval exercises conducted by Iran, Russia, and China in the Gulf of Oman in the Western Indian Ocean, outlining potential ramifications for India’s critical interests in the region. Ambassador Yashvardhan Kumar Sinha provided a historical overview of India’s relations with Iran, emphasising the deep-rooted cultural and historical ties between the two nations. Amb. Sinha noted that in 2002 when Iranian President Khatami offered Chabahar port development to India, there were discussions in India of the strategic importance of Chabahar. The progress on India’s involvement in Chabahar gathered momentum in 2011-12. He recalled the then Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Iran during the 16th NAM Summit in August 2012, when an action plan on Chabahar was discussed, which later provided the basis for the 2016 Chabahar Agreement. Amb. Sinha emphasised the significant importance of the Chabahar Port for India, particularly in light of India-Pakistan adversarial relations, which have hindered direct overland connectivity, one exception being India’s wheat shipment to Afghanistan under the World Food Programme going through Karachi. He also elaborated on the financial arrangements between India and Iran, noting that the Reserve Bank of India had an arrangement with the Central Bank of Iran to open Rupee accounts with the UCO Bank, facilitating smoother financial transactions between the two countries. Amb. Sinha noted that Chabahar is geographically closer to India and Central Asia than Bandar Abbas, making it a more strategic and accessible option for reaching Afghanistan and Central Asia. Additionally, he observed that quick development of transport infrastructure, especially roads linking to Chabahar, has taken place. He also mentioned India’s construction of the Zaranj-Delaram Highway connecting to the Garland Highway in Afghanistan. On a comparative note, he noted that the Baloch insurgency in Pakistan imperils the prospects of Gwadar as a trans-shipment hub. He noted that other partners of India will have the opportunity to utilise this infrastructure, thereby enhancing regional cooperation. Ambassador Gaddam Dharmendra stated that Iran has been at the centre of multiple developments, especially following the 7 October 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel. He noted that Iran has been linked to various actors, including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis. Additionally, he discussed the role of Egypt and the U.S. in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Amb. Dharmendra provided a detailed overview of the functioning and power dynamics of multiple power structures operating in Iran under the Supreme Leader, specifically emphasising the increasing role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in various domains, from politics to economy. Amb. Dharmendra outlined the recent progress in bilateral relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, highlighting efforts to bridge long-standing geopolitical divides and China’s role as a guarantor of the process. He elaborated on Iran’s forward defence strategy, which involves using a decentralised network of non-state actors to secure its homeland. Iran has achieved significant success in training and mobilising these actors. However, while Iran has the capability to initiate escalatory dynamics, it lacks the power to dominate such escalations. This was exemplified in the recent attack on Israel, where approximately 300 drones and missiles were launched. Despite this, Iran’s influence remains substantial but not overwhelming in terms of maintaining prolonged dominance in conflict scenarios. Amb. Dharmendra also discussed the strained relations between Iran and the European Union, particularly in the context of the United States’ withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018. Following this withdrawal, Iran has gradually undermined nearly all provisions of the JCPOA, including dismantling surveillance cameras and limiting access to inspectors, which has resulted in complicated relations with Europe. He also observed that Iran’s nuclear latency acts as a deterrent against potential Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Dr. Deepika Saraswat remarked that the 2016 Chabahar Agreement and the latest long-term contract exemplify India’s commitment to maintaining strong ties with Iran, driven by enduring strategic logic. She argued that both countries share a common strategic and security environment in South-West Asia. She noted that Pakistan’s obstructionism gives certain inexorability to Iran’s gateway role. Dr. Saraswat noted that, unlike the United States, India views Iran as a regional partner with which it would seek to engage on the basis of convergence of interests. Dr. Saraswat noted that despite significant developments in Iran-China relations, particularly after the Iran-China 25-year agreement, India would not like to see Iran fall into China’s geopolitical orbit. She also discussed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s administration-led “Look East” doctrine, which emerged in 2005. This doctrine emphasised Iran’s pivot towards the East, diversifying its international partnerships beyond traditional Western allies. Dr. Saraswat underscored Iran’s historical importance in fostering North-South connectivity since the completion of the Trans-Iranian railway in 1938. She specified that under the Look East doctrine, Iran positioned itself as an ‘Asian country,’ prioritising geoeconomic considerations over the conflict-ridden geopolitics of the Middle East. Dr. Saraswat discussed that Iran’s geopolitical thinking had been shaped by its historical experience in the great game between Britain and Russia, leading to a quest for independence and a nuanced understanding of imperialist geopolitics. Dr. Saraswat emphasised Iran’s self-perception as a regional power, actively engaged in countering the U.S. in the Persian Gulf while also viewing Russia and China as strategic counterweights to the U.S. Iran’s full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in July 2023 has shown Iran’s approach towards multilateralism. However, she noted that despite these alliances, Iran maintains its identity as a civilisational state and does not consider itself a junior partner to Russia and China. Moreover, Iran is cautious about China’s increasing dominance in Central Asia, a sentiment shared by India as well. She also briefly spoke of the competitive dynamics between Iran and Pakistan in inter-regional connectivity between Central and South Asia. Comments and QuestionsGp. Capt. (Dr.) Ajey Lele (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, asked about Iran’s deteriorating economy and its options to navigate challenges. Dr. Ashok K. Behuria, Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA, shared his views on the Baloch rebellion in both Pakistan and Iran and its repercussions. He suggested that India’s anxiety about China-Pakistan nexus needs to be commensurate with India’s broader strategic vision. Dr. Rajiv Nayan, Senior Research Associate, MP-IDSA, remarked on the need to study the technological progress of non-state actors and inquired about the multifaceted role of various authorities in the election of Iran’s new President. Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, posed questions regarding sector-specific investments in Iran and the Taliban’s proposal to invest in the Chabahar project. Dr. P. K. Pradhan, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, asked about evolving bilateral trade amid the potential for closer Iran-Saudi Arabia relations. Report prepared by Mr. Abhishek Yadav, Research Analyst, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. |
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| Interaction with Delegation from the French Institute for Advanced Studies in National Defence (IHEDN) | May 27, 2024 | Other |
Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) organised an interaction with a delegation from the French Institute for Advanced Studies in National Defence (IHEDN) on “India-France Bilateral Relations” on 27 May 2024. The interaction was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and attended by scholars from the Europe and Eurasia Centre, Defence Economics and Industry Centre, and Military Affairs Centre of MP-IDSA. Executive SummaryThe event provided a comprehensive overview of India-France Bilateral relations. It delved into historic ties of the two nations while also simultaneously analysing the current state of affairs and future prospects of developing this strategic partnership further. Diplomatic and defence ties between India and France, the current state of global affairs including violent clashes in Europe, West Asia, and the building up of tension in the Asian waters were discussed. Mention was made of French support towards India’s inclusion in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) permanent membership, its decision to continue trade with India even when the west planned on boycotting India owing to its first successful nuclear weapon test. France has also been a crucial pillar in India’s journey of reducing Russian dependency for military imports. India has been a natural partner of France in the Indo-Pacific owing to its shared values and interests. It is a reliable and trustworthy ally which seeks to further deepen ties. Detailed ReportAmbassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA delivered the opening remarks. He began by formally welcoming General Benoît Durieux, Director General, IHEDN and the French delegation to India. He mentioned the defence and strategic cooperation between India and France with an emphasis on cooperation in the maritime theatre, deepening defence and security ties, and greater convergence on many defence platforms. He mentioned that India would be happy to engage with the French over joint ventures, joint research and development projects, technology transfers for crucial defence systems, and alike. This could help the countries in their shared agenda of the fight against terrorism. Trilateral Cooperation for Development in Africa is another aspect where India and France can work together with a third African country in Africa. Such an arrangement can harness historical ties that French have with the continent along with India’s goodwill which has been increasing with the African countries. Amb. Chinoy highlighted the current state of global affairs, which is governed by great power contestation. The US and China are caught in a tussle of trying to prove their supremacy over the other. Russia and Ukraine are engaged in war since February 2022. Post COVID-19 pandemic the world is witnessing a disruption in global supply chains and an increase in debt distress levels, especially in developing countries. The world is also witnessing certain non-state actors strengthening their hold on crucial points on the map. For instance, the Houthis have managed to get a stronghold on certain areas of Yemen which leaves them in control of crucial chokepoints like the Bab-al Mandab Strait. Simultaneously, there has been a spike in the piracy cases around that region. This reflects that if non-state actors were to get control of other chokepoints, we could witness an increase in the nature and number of disruptive issues around that area. Amb. Chinoy mentioned that social media is yet another sector which has been growing exponentially. It has become a new frontier on a battlefield which is constantly evolving and affecting those who are far away from it. The battle of narratives is being fought ferociously on online platforms to try and control the mindset of global citizens. Greater number of countries are seeking multipolarity, reformed multilateralism and issue based alignments. In today’s globalised world, decoupling is not an option but it is very important to be able to de-risk policies and supply chains. The concept of de-risking was first introduced by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission. De-risking from China is vital for Europe as China has managed to link its geo-economic interests with geopolitics when dealing with other countries, be it allies or others. General Benoît Durieux, Director General, IHEDN commenced his address by thanking MP-IDSA for the hospitality. He mentioned that this was the first time that IHEDN decided to send such a large delegation to India, comprising 103 members. This was a natural choice for the French which reflected the strong partnership between the two countries. He drew parallels between India and France and pointed out that both the countries value multilateralism. What India means by multilateralism is what France’s idea of ‘not aligned’ is. There is a difference of terminology but the meaning of the terms is the same. Both India and France are global voices, meaning that when they have something to say at a global stage, the others listen. Both are nuclear power wielding countries which behave responsibly and do not threaten the use of nuclear weapons on those who do not align with their views. For France, diplomacy and democracy are very significant aspects. It upholds democratic values above all else. Speaking of defence institutions, General Durieux said that it is important for military institutions and foreign policy institutes to understand the reasons as to why military force is employed. It matters how decision makers view defence and political issues and at times we may observe a slight overlap between the two. Climate crises is one such instance where the scale of threat is ever changing based on new developments. Not only this, new technological tools like artificial intelligence (AI), cyberspace, and drones will change our society and we will have to wait and watch for the kind of impact it has in the long run. General Durieux urged both the countries to work tirelessly towards the reality of their strategic partnership. General Durieux concluded by saying that it is the duty of think tanks to engage and develop partnerships at the institutional level to exchange ideas and thoughts. He also mentioned an upcoming French Institute by the name of ‘French Defence University’ which will be an association of 23 research institutions focused on military education and training. He extended an invitation for a delegation from MP-IDSA led by Amb. Sujan Chinoy, to participate in the second edition of the Paris Defence and Strategy Forum scheduled in March 2025, before concluding his remarks. Amb. Sujan Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA was the first speaker on the panel and he spoke on “Evolving Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific”. He began by discussing India’s core strategic outlook which reflected the teachings of Gandhi and Buddha and deeply cherishs India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as cornerstones of its economic growth. India has its own set of challenges but it has never aggressed against other nations as the first mover. In the Indo-Pacific, China’s rapid rise has been somewhat disruptive. It has not been able to adjust to the global rise of other countries and the world too has not been able to adjust to China’s rapid rise in Asian waters. China has benefitted immensely from the current world order but it is unhappy that the reigns of agenda-setting are still in the hands of the West. Amb. Chinoy highlighted the criticality of the Indo-Pacific and how the concept evolved from the old terminology ‘Asia-Pacific’. Earlier economic development was restricted to certain pockets in south-east Asia but with time, this has spread. Thereby, the term Indo-Pacific being more inclusive. Speaking of international waters, Amb Chinoy also explained the cruciality of various chokepoints in maritime trade routes like the Bab-al-Mandab, Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, Sunda Strait amongst others. If control of these points were to fall in the hands of non-state actors, it would make things very complicated for the states. Groupings like the Quad were also mentioned by the Amb. Its re-birth since 2017, when it was elevated from Senior Official/Minister level dialogue to Summit level. Malabar exercises and Quad partners’ individual bilateral exercises also found mention. Indo-Pacific is a strategically important geolocation which also harbours the waters around the Quad countries but here China’s increased presence is witnessed in Micronesia and Polynesia. It has overlapping claims with many countries regarding the Nine- Dash Line. It is involved in illegal fishing, building artificial islands and has been threatening Taiwan with frequent sorties without having ruled out the option of use of force yet on Taiwan. There is increasing support in favour of Taiwan but powers like the United States still maintain an ambiguous stand on the issue of supporting Taiwan over China. Beijing has made inroads into ASEAN and made several ASEAN countries dependent on it, thereby fracturing any possible consensus to stand united in the face of the dragon. Amb. Chinoy stated that all major powers are present in the Indo-Pacific. India is a peninsular country with a vast Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Its vision for the Indo-Pacific was well defined by the Prime Minister in 2018 as an “open, stable, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific Region”. SAGAR and its extension- SagarMala project- are aimed at linking India’s inland ports and waterways to global shipping. India is also an observer in Australian Naval exercises, apart from being a participant in some. Concluding his remarks, Amb. Chinoy highlighted the 7 pillars of the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative and the role of Japan, Australia, France, Singapore and Indonesia as important partners of India in different pillars of this programme. Dr. Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA was the second Speaker on the panel and she spoke on “Evolving Dimensions of India-France Bilateral Ties”. She began by congratulating the IHEDN delegation for successfully hosting the International Session for the Indo-Pacific (SIIP) 2023 in Paris. She pointed out that India has a 2+2 mechanism with its close allies like Australia, the United Kingdom (UK), and others but not with France. The reason being that India and France are natural allies who have managed to build close ties even without such a mechanism. This speaks volumes about the bond of trust between the two countries but the real question is where does this trust come from. It primarily flows from two major documents signed by the Indian and French leadership. First is ‘Horizon 2047 Roadmap’ signed during Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Paris as the Chief Guest for the Bastille Day celebrations on 14 July 2023. Second is the ‘Defence Industry Roadmap’ signed during President Macron’s visit to India as the Chief Guest for the 75th Republic Day on 26 January 2024. The Horizon 2047 Roadmap will coincide with the centenary of India’s independence, the centenary of diplomatic relations between India and France, and 50 years of the strategic partnership. These documents mention the bilateral defence industrial collaboration; bilateral, trilateral and triangular cooperation; and outlines the comprehensive matrix of engagement between the two. France has proved to be India’s true ally time and again. Dr. Rao recalled that in 1998 when the west imposed sanctions on India for conducting nuclear weapons tests, France did not abide by those sanctions. It continued to engage with India on its own terms. Another instance is the US built Tarapur reactors where US was supplying fuel until complications arose due to the non-proliferation issue. It was France which came to India’s aid and supplied nuclear fuel until 1992. Dr. Rao mentioned space cooperation as a significant aspect of India-France bilateral ties. It is rooted in history similar to defence cooperation and can be traced back to 1960s. Joint space collaboration between Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and the French National Space Agency (CNES) has resulted in two world class space missions. CNES has also opened a permanent liaison office in Bengaluru. India and France have held two space dialogues and France is the third country with which India has held space dialogues after US and Japan. To conclude, the collaboration and cooperation between India and France is at a high point and according to Dr. Rao this can be taken forward by focusing on bilateral ties, encouraging people to people relations, resuming work on projects like the Jaitapur Nuclear power plant which have been stuck for a while now. Dr S. Samuel C. Rajiv, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA spoke on “India-France Defence Industry Cooperation”. He noted that in the past decade India was France’s top defence export destination and France was India’s second highest defence supplier after Russia. India was the biggest arms export market for Russia, France, and Israel from 2014-2023. France’s share in global arms exports in 2019-23 stood at 11 per cent, making it the second biggest exporter of arms globally for the first time, after the United States and ahead of Russia, China and Germany. Dr. Rajiv highlighted that aircrafts and ships were the top category of weapons exports, followed by missiles, sensors and engines. Dr. Rajiv then highlighted some key aspects relating to French defence companies in India. The first company to find mention was Dassault Aviation. The Indian Air Force (IAF) was the first export customer of Dassault Aviation in 1953 when it ordered the Ouragans/Toofani aircrafts. India also secured the Mirages and Rafale jets. The naval version of the Rafale has also been selected by India for its aircraft carrier air wing. He noted that India selected the French fighter despite stiff competition from Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet. India will be the first country outside France to field both land and naval versions of the Rafale. Dr. Rajiv noted India’s acquisition of Scorpene submarines (from the Naval Group) with the sixth expected to be commissioned later this year. Safran has been present in India since the last 65 years and 75 per cent of the Indian aircrafts and helicopters use Safran engines comprising equipment like the Inertial Navigation Systems, with the latter co-developed with Indian public sector companies like BEL, with contributions from DRDO as well. Thales also has a significant presence with more than 2,000 employees and joint ventures with many Indian companies. It provides significant components for the Rafale jets. Dr. Rajiv pointed out that 16 per cent of the total offset contracts (by number) are being executed by French companies. Highlighting key trends, Dr. Rajiv noted that Indian military aircraft imports have witnessed increased imports from European manufacturers like Dassault and Airbus in recent times while imports from Russia have declined. He highlighted that India’s defence engagement with strategic partners such as France will increasingly take place in the backdrop of the ongoing defence transformation with defence indigenisation and domestic procurement being key focus areas. He noted that India’s defence budgets have seen adequate allocations to cater to defence modernisation needs. At the same time, he noted that India’s defence budgets are less than 2 per cent of its GDP. In conclusion, Dr. Rajiv highlighted key aspects of the India-France Horizon 2047 document in which both countries have pledged to build sovereign defence capabilities together as well as cooperate in co-development and co-production of advanced defence technologies. Q&A SessionThis session comprised of questions from the IHEDN delegation, relating to a range of themes associated with India-French relations and current geopolitical relations and tensions across the globe. Second question was regarding India’s reliance on Russian oil, weapons and arms and how that could be impacted by a deeper China - Russia nexus. Amb. Chinoy responded to this by saying that India is buying oil from Russia just like China and the others are. Even Japan is buying nearly 10 per cent of its natural gas from Russia. Fuel trade is essentially governed by the price factor and if any other country was to offer a cheaper price for oil to India, it would not hesitate to buy from them. Buying Russian oil makes economical sense given the high demand in the Indian market. India is one of the top 5 economies in the world with a steady projected rise to reach new heights. It needs affordable energy to meet daily requirements and it is not self-sufficient in oil. Hence, the oil trade from Russia. Next question was regarding India’s position in the multi-aligned world and the pros and cons of it. Amb. Chinoy responded by emphasising India’s strategic autonomy and how it plans on maintaining its indigenous strategic thinking, its culture and the choice of what to do and what not to do. The new India today is not going to take orders from other countries, rather it wants to exercise its independent choice and strategic autonomy. The soldiers of Indian origin fighting on the side of the UK in the world war on European soil did not have a real choice but to do as ordered by the imperialists. The non-alignment movement (NAM) was founded to let nations take their own decisions and not be influenced by any of the blocs during the Cold War. Many of the Global South countries were also a part of it since 1961. Amb. Chinoy recalled the India - China War, when India requested weapons from the US (even though some shipments arrived late) in exercise of its strategic autonomy, notwithstanding its non-aligned policy. Another instance cited by Amb. Chinoy was the 1971 India-Pakistan War when US sent its 7th fleet to the Bay of Bengal to intimidate India but it did not give into any kind of pressure. India took its own decision to conclude a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation with the USSR. Every single time that India has faced war on any of its borders, it was left to defend itself on its own. This highlights the fact that territorial integrity and sovereignty need to be maintained at all costs. Next question from the floor was in connection with India’s role in the Global South, with regard to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and also about the new world order that India seeks to build. Amb. Chinoy responded by highlighting that India’s per capita GDP is unlikely to decline anytime soon. India as a member of the Global South is a given. It wants to be a positive representative of the region, a friend. According to Amb. Chinoy, BRICS does not have much of a future even though today it comprises 30 per cent of the global GDP which is around 30 trillion USD. He even referred to the recent expansion of BRICS and how the organisation might face issues with the commodity economy given the volatility involved. This became evident when China faced problems while dealing with financial sectors like banking and having to bail them out. Speaking of harmony and convergence, Amb. Chinoy pointed out that G20 is one such global structure which can serve as a platform to converge views from different geographies of the world. G7, European Union, African Union, the P-5 and the BRICS are all a part of the G20. There are no veto powers in the grouping and it is fully functional. It’s a dream team. Subsequent questions were around the current Taliban regime in Afghanistan and India’s take on this, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, as to what will lead to an Indian military intervention in Ukraine. The query was addressed by stating that India’s military intervention in Ukraine is a far-fetched idea. Regarding Taliban’s presence in Afghanistan, Amb. Chinoy mentioned that Taliban’s presence in Afghanistan is a peculiar situation. Social policies and welfare schemes have certainly come under scrutiny since Taliban assumed power in Afghanistan. Freedom and education of women and girls has been severely curtailed. Given the regional dynamics, we can only hope that Afghanistan does not become a safe haven for terrorist outfits again. The last two queries were regarding decarbonisation and green development of the developing economies, and India’s priorities with regard to reform of multilateral structures. Addressing the former question, Amb. Chinoy highlighted the role played by sectors like electric vehicles and lithium-ion batteries in helping developing countries deal with their growing energy demands in a clean fashion. The developmental finance promised by the developed countries is crucial to green transformation of the Global South but this funding is yet to reach the developing markets. With regard to reforms of multilateral structures, Amb. Chinoy emphasised the permanent membership of the UNSC. It was formed in 1945, but since then the world has changed a lot and the membership (non-permanent) of the organisation was only expanded once. He recalled the debates at ECOSOC (Economic and Social Council) from 1961-65 resulting in a one – time expansion of the UNSC’s non-permanent membership but since then, nothing has been done. It is not only the UNSC but also the Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), International Financial Institutions (IFIs), and Bretton Woods structures which need to be reformed. Even the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) quota of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been amended only once around 2009. Amb. Chinoy pointed out that India’s SDR quota is lower than the UK, even though its GDP is more than that of the UK. SDRs have not kept pace with time. Greater finance should be made available to people and the likes of hybrid finance need to be promoted, especially among the developing countries. After concluding the Q&A session, Ambassador Chinoy thanked General Benoît Durieux, Director General, IHEDN, the French delegation, and the audience for a fruitful engagement. Report has been prepared by Ms. Anandita Bhada, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. |
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| Report of Monday Morning Meeting on China-Russia Relationship: A Greater Alignment? | June 24, 2024 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. M.S. Prathibha, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) spoke on “China-Russia Relationship: A Greater Alignment?” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 24 June. The session was moderated by Dr. Prashant Kumar Singh, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. MP-IDSA scholars attended the meeting. Executive SummaryThe growing cooperation between China and Russia visible at the international level has evoked considerable discussion regarding the extent of strategic alignment between the two countries as they perceive considerable strategic and economic pressure from the West. Dr Prathibha in her presentation underlines the factors motivating China-Russia cooperation, the extent of cooperation between the two countries and finally the challenges to greater alignment between Russia and China. Detailed ReportThe session opened with introductory remarks from Dr. Prashant Kumar Singh. Deliberating on the long history of Sino-Russia relations and its trajectory he observed that Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 was a watershed event. Following Crimea’s annexation, Russia’s reliance on China deepened in an unprecedented way because of US-led sanctions. Bilateral ties further advanced in 2020 and in 2022 a few days before the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the two countries declared a ‘no-limits partnership’. Dr. Singh noted that although China and Russia are not treaty bound allies, the West views them as such. However, delving deeper, differences over a range of issues are perceptible including Russia’s limited support to Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Further, questions remain about the depth of their partnership and the extent of their cooperation on geopolitical issues vis-à-vis the West. For instance, China did not recognise Russia’s annexation of Crimea and has been very careful in its support for Russia in order to avoid disruption of economic and diplomatic ties with Europe. Moreover, with regard to military cooperation, although the number of joint exercises is increasing, there is little interoperability between the militaries of the two countries. Also, Moscow has been reluctant to export sensitive military technology to Russia. Highlighting the differences between Russia and China’s perception of the world order, he queried if Russia-China cooperation is driven by anti-US sentiment and whether the seeming closeness between Russia and China will have any implications for India. Dr. M.S. Prathibha in her presentation explained the factors motivating China-Russia cooperation, the extent of cooperation between the two countries and finally the challenges to greater alignment between Russia and China. Dr. Prathibha noted that there is a surge of interest regarding Russia-China relations, following the signing of the joint communique where they declared a no-limits partnership. The joint statement implying that there are no forbidden areas of cooperation between the two countries led observers in the West to conclude that Moscow and Beijing are likely to remove the previous constraints that impinged on bilateral cooperation. Apprehensions about unrestrained cooperation deepened as China aligned its position with Russia on the Ukraine crisis in the UN, refused to condemn Moscow’s actions and Chinese media openly supported Russian narratives. Further, increase in Russia’s exports to China, naval exercises in South China Sea and Sea of Japan solidified the perception of growing strategic coordination between the two countries on the world stage. With regard to whether China and Russia are really cooperating, Dr. Prathibha explained that there are indications of the two countries cooperating in the strategic and economic domain. For instance, China and Russia are planning to work closely to jointly expand the influence of BRICS and the SCO as a counter to US-led organisations. Also, China has become an economic lifeline to Russia by exporting dual use components. At the same time, Beijing is using considerable influence to support Moscow while maintaining its neutrality. Additionally, China and Russia are moving to cooperate in Central Asia to stabilise the region and enhance its economic potential through BRI and other Russian led initiatives. Similarly, they are also looking into ways of implementing the pre-2030 plan which aims to modernise industrial supply chains between the two countries. In this context, it is noteworthy that the ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Cooperation in the New Era’ plan is a long-term view which extends till 2049. Discussing whether the growing cooperation indicates alignment, Dr. Prathibha noted that there are historical and structural challenges to strategic alignment between the countries. She observed that throughout history, China and Russia have been imperial and hegemonic rivals. China holds the historical memory of losing territory to Russia and considers the latter to be an expansionist power. On the other hand, current China-Russia cooperation is happening because of deterioration in China-US relations. Therefore, if China and US relations improve, the urgency from Chinese side to cooperate with Russia might reduce. She added that there is considerable mistrust on the Chinese side vis-à-vis Russia and cooperation with Moscow is dictated primarily by norms of Chinese foreign policy rather than any feeling of kinship. Furthermore, the Chinese view is that the US is traditionally more willing to make concessions to improve bilateral ties. In contrast, Russia is less accommodating, making concessions only when compelled by pressure or threats, rather than as a gesture of goodwill. Dr. Prathibha concluded her presentation by stating that there could be greater coordination on the political and economic side to face Western pressure and formulate mutually favourable industrial policies respectively. However, historical and structural factors will limit cooperation at least from the Chinese side. Q&A SessionThe presentation was followed by a Q&A Session. Deputy Director General Gp. Capt. (Dr.) Ajey Lele queried about China’s reaction to Russia-North Korea cooperation and Russia’s stance in a possible conflict on Taiwan Straits. One of the scholars queried about the possibility of renewed competition between Russia-China and the US in Central Asia. Reflecting on Chinese mistrust towards Russia, another scholar asked about Russia’s perception of Chinese expansionist tendencies and extent of Sino-Russian cooperation on military technology. During the Q&A session it was observed that Russia-China cooperation is not directed at India and Russia is unlikely to allow China to have a veto over its foreign policy. However, it is in India’s interest to deepen India-Russia relations by adding more pillars to bilateral ties. Report prepared by Ms. Mayuri Banerjee, Research Analyst, East Asia Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi. |
East Asia | China, Russia-China Relations | ||||
| Lecture by Ambassador Harsh Shringla on “Developmental Priorities and India’s Neighbourhood: View from Darjeeling” | May 31, 2024 | Speeches and Lectures |
Under MP-IDSA’s Eminent Persons Lecture Series, Ambassador Harsh Shringla delivered his lecture on “Developmental Priorities and India’s Neighbourhood: Views from Darjeeling” on 31 May 2024. The Session was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA. Scholars of the MP-IDSA attended the meeting. Executive SummaryThe lecture highlighted the evolving global landscape, characterised by shifting power dynamics and the limitations of existing global institutions in addressing modern challenges effectively. It underscored India's emerging role as an advocate for the Global South, drawing from the Speaker's extensive experience in the Ministry of External Affairs. The discussion emphasised the importance of adopting a comprehensive foreign policy approach that balances regional development with international diplomacy, considering the intricate interplay between local and global factors. Detailed ReportIn his opening remarks, the Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy welcomed Ambassador Harsh Shringla to MP-IDSA. He highlighted Amb. Shringla’s diplomatic career including as the Chief Coordinator for India's G20 Presidency. He invited Amb. Shringla to share his perspectives on regional developmental challenges, the future of India’s neighbourhood and India’s emergence as a voice for the Global South, particularly in the context of India’s G20 Presidency. Amb. Harsh Shringla began by expressing gratitude for being invited to share his insights. He acknowledged the importance of engaging in discussions on foreign policy and developmental challenges. He emphasised that the world is navigating through very uncertain times, which necessitates a thoughtful consideration of significant shifts in global leadership and influence. He added that these shifts contribute to rebalancing of economic growth and manufacturing power, with countries like China rising in prominence and altering the traditional global power dynamics away from the United States and Europe. Amb. Shringla also discussed the implications of this rebalancing on global governance, questioning the ability of existing institutions like the United Nations and global financial organisations to effectively address the challenges of the 21st century. He highlighted the lack of effectiveness in global governance, attributing it to a lack of diversity and equity within key institutions. For instance, he noted the deadlock in the United Nations Security Council and the limited capabilities of the World Bank, which lacks the resources and military backing to address issues effectively. He added that the developing countries often find themselves disproportionately affected by these global shifts, facing high prices for essential goods, increasing economic disparity, and severe impacts of climate change. Amb. Shringla further highlighted the evolution of India's foreign policy over the past 20-30 years. India has transitioned from primarily responding to global initiatives to leading and devising solutions based on its own ideas and traditions. He emphasised the success of UPI under the Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) initiative, noting that 40 percent of global digital transactions take place in India. Additionally, India administered over 2 billion COVID-19 vaccines worldwide, starting with its neighbours, through both grants (Vaccine Maitri) and commercial schemes. The Speaker also touched upon the importance of maintaining peace and stability in global conflicts. He highlighted India's balanced approach, avoiding direct involvement in wars while promoting diplomatic resolutions. He cited Prime Minister Modi's stance on global cooperation, underscoring the principle of "Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam" (the world is one family) as a guiding philosophy for India's foreign policy. He discussed India's strategic approach during the recent global conflicts and crises. According to Amb. Shringla, India has consistently preferred a multipolar world order, projecting itself as a pole rather than aligning with any so-called bipolar or unipolar order. He underlined that purchasing discounted Russian oil helped stabilise domestic prices and contributed to global market stability. This action demonstrated India's ability to navigate complex international situations while adhering to sanctions and maintaining economic stability, he added. While expressing the need to move towards renewable energy, Amb. Shringla stated that India has the potential to meet 80% of its energy requirements through renewable sources. He underscored that this shift would benefit both the economy and environment, positioning India as a leader in global climate mitigation efforts. He stressed the importance of voluntary and individual lifestyle changes to achieve environmental sustainability, advocating policies that promote modest and efficient utilisation of resources. Amb. Shringla highlighted that India's proactive foreign policy has evolved to focus on global initiatives and solutions. The discussion highlighted the development challenges in West Bengal due to the contested dynamics between the TMC-led State Government and the BJP-led Central Government. Despite the central government’s intentions, state-level politics and demographic shifts hinder effective development. This scenario emphasises the need to reconcile regional aspirations for autonomy with the central goal of fostering development. He underlined that the security situation in the Northeast remains complex, with unresolved grievances and the influence of neighbouring countries like Myanmar and Bangladesh, directly impacting India's border states and complicating regional stability and development. He concluded by stating that India’s Foreign Policy must address these cross-border influences, as the conflict in Myanmar and instability in Bangladesh have significant repercussions within India. Collaborating closely with regional authorities and considering local sentiments for autonomy and development is crucial. Questions and CommentsThe Director General, Amb. Chinoy thanked Ambassador Shringla for his remarks. The Q&A session offered an in-depth look at India's strategic priorities, touching on the intricacies of India-US relations, India's firm pursuit of its national interest, as well as regional security and economic development. He also observed that there is a systemic imbalance at the global level, contributing to conflicts and unrest in the Middle East, Ukraine, and other parts of the world. Therefore, equilibrium is required in the international system. Amb. Shringla provided responses to all the questions. The session emphasised the need for pragmatic diplomacy to navigate the global landscape, uphold India's strategic autonomy, and promote multipolarity. The interaction concluded with a formal Vote of Thanks to the Speaker by the Director General. The Report has been prepared by Ms. Sneha M., Research Analyst, South Asia Centre. |