EVENTS

You are here

Events

Title Date Author Time Event Body Research Area Topics File attachments Image
Monday Morning Meeting on “India at G7: Challenges and Way Forward” July 04, 2022 1000 hrs Monday Morning Meeting

Mr. Pradeep S. Gautam, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “India at G7: Challenges and Way Forward” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 4 July 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, and scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

G7 remains one of the most important multilateral bodies to set the global agenda and tackle emerging challenges. However, it is also faced with internal incoherence on certain issues. As its share in the global GDP has gradually declined, it has chosen to engage more and more with like-minded democracies such as India, in furtherance of its agenda.

India must use G7 and similar multilateral bodies, including World Trade Organisation (WTO), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and G20 to maximise its national interests. Although at the same time, it has increasingly become difficult to arrive at a consensus in these multilateral forums. Hence, there is a need to engage countries bilaterally and in smaller groups as well. This effort may only bear fruit if accompanied with necessary domestic reforms.

Detailed Report

Dr. Rao introduced the topic of the Monday morning meeting by underlining the values and attributes at the core of G7, particularly in the context of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. She also spoke about the group’s most recent meeting in June 2022 and the 28-page communiqué released by the participating leaders, which primarily focused on China and the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) programme to counter the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Following the brief introduction, the chair gave the floor to Mr. Gautam.

The speaker initially delved into G7’s historical context, i.e., its emergence in response to the 1970s economic crisis and its evolution as a multilateral forum to address global challenges. He also delineated the grouping’s operational framework and its overlapping work with organisations, including the WTO, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and G20.

Mr. Gautam further addressed G7’s meeting in Elmau, Germany organised between 26 to 28 June 2022 and laid out the empirical data concerning the inter-governmental forum’s share of the global gross domestic product (GDP) between 1975 and 2020. He mentioned that its highest share of the GDP was visible during the Clinton Presidency. He also examined how there exists an overlap between G7 and G20’s membership.

Moving further, the speaker elaborated on issues that have been of vital significance to G7 leaders, primarily taxation of e-commerce multi-national corporations, global infrastructure, global financial stress, and trade and supply chains. In that context, he looked at how the member states have responded to these challenges, the implications for India, and how the latter can move forward regarding these matters of vital concern. Finally, he flagged a few key issues specific to India, including how it requires more data-driven analysis on economic issues, the continuation of a balanced budget, and more reforms to attract global capital. In addition, India’s strength in its domestic economy may help it negotiate better internationally.

The speaker underscored the pros and cons of the PGII vis-à-vis the BRI. He also discussed economic distress in developing countries due to COVID lockdowns, the Ukraine war, increasing energy prices, and finally increasing interest rates in the US. While discussing that, he highlighted increasing inflation and interest rates, and the threat of recession in the G7 countries, limiting their bandwidth for international intervention for the next 2-3 years.

The speaker highlighted the need for capacity building in negotiating trade deals and effective use of non-tariff barriers (NTBs), trade, and industrial policy to attract international investment and become part of the global supply chain. In addition, the speaker raised other issues of primary importance centred around energy and food security, climate change, and sustainable development.

After the speaker brought his presentation to a close, the chair thanked him for his insightful remarks and opened the floor to questions and comments from the audience.

The question-and-answer session highlighted diverse perspectives rooted in a detailed analysis of the issue discussed during the meeting. Some of the crucial themes highlighted during the session are as follows: –

  • The importance of exploring G7’s ties with the global south and the challenges emanating from this relationship.
  • The need to examine the role of BRICS in economic and infrastructural development.
  • The need to strengthen WTO’s dispute settlement mechanisms.
  • The wave of protectionist trends is blowing worldwide.
  • Each country is looking to preserve and promote individualistic interests.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic, the United States of America’s unilateral withdrawal from Afghanistan despite a multilateral international coalition force in the country, and the Ukraine-Russia conflict are culpable for weakening the various multilateral platforms.
  • The adverse impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the Rupee-Dollar valuation, acute oil shortage, and food crisis worldwide.
  • The World Bank’s June 2022 report and economic repercussions that are awaiting the world.
  • The challenges of stagflation, i.e., the combined output of slow economic growth, steady unemployment, and inflation.
  • The growing restiveness among the Indian youth due to the financial crisis.
  • The need to cap the price of Russian oil exports and its implications for India.
  • The obligation of Indian leaders to re-negotiate “smarter FTAs.”
  • A comparative analysis of the BRI and ‘Build Back Better World Initiative’ announced in 2021 and how the latter has been subsumed in PGII and is focused on providing infrastructural and developmental aid for middle and low-income countries.
  • The politicisation of oil production has been a visible trend, particularly in the past year.
  • The European continent is experiencing a dichotomy regarding the issue of energy security.
  • G7’s cooperation with China concerning change, despite the military and political conflict between the two actors.

This report was prepared by Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Counter-Terrorism Centre, MP-IDSA.

Monday Morning Meeting on Resolution of the "Grey Areas" in the Bay of Bengal: India, Bangladesh and Myanmar June 20, 2022 1000 Monday Morning Meeting

Capt. Anurag Bisen, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “Resolution of the "Grey Areas" in the Bay of Bengal:  India, Bangladesh and Myanmar” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 20 June 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. Senior scholars, research analysts and interns of the institution were in attendance.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Bangladesh’s initiation of arbitration proceedings separately against India and Myanmar, under UNCLOS, resulted in the creation of a “grey area”, having overlapping continental shelf and exclusive economic zone rights, between India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. This “grey area”, which is yet to be resolved, hampers maritime security and development of the Bay of Bengal region.

DETAILED REPORT

Dr. Smruti commenced the session by highlighting that land and maritime boundary settlements between India and Bangladesh continue to remain incomplete. With this context, she introduced the audience to grey areas and the overlapping Continental Shelf and EEZ claims in the Bay of Bengal region. She also noted that the discussion on grey areas cannot remain limited to India and Bangladesh and requires a trilateral focus by featuring Myanmar.

With these remarks, Dr. Smruti invited Capt. Anurag to make his presentation. At the outset, Capt. Anurag pointed out that the issue of grey areashas not received adequate attention, possibly due to the complexity of the case, the presence of multiple stakeholders, and lack of expertise on the topic. He reiterated the critical importance of the issue towards collective security and development of Bay of Bengal. For ease of understanding, Capt. Anurag introduced the audience to the geographical features of the Bay of Bengal region and the framework of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). He also explained Baselines, Continental Shelf (CS) and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs).  He pointed out that claims to the Extended Continental Shelf (ECS) require submission to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS). Both India and Bangladesh made their submissions in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Through a timeline of events, Capt. Bisen elucidated that following Bangladesh’s arbitrary proceedings against India and Myanmar in 2009, the ITLOS judgment of 2012 and the Arbitral Award of 2014 resulted in the creation of a grey area.

In the next part of his presentation, Capt. Anurag employed interactive maps to display the grey areas between India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. He brought out that as a consequence of delimitation, Myanmar’s EEZ rights in the water column overlapped with Bangladesh’s CS rights on the seabed. Similarly, Capt. Anurag explained the grey area that arose between India’s EEZ rights and Bangladesh’s CS rights as a result of the Arbitral Tribunal Award. He also presented the grey area between India and Myanmar that was created due to an overlap between the India versus Bangladesh tribunal award and the Bangladesh versus Myanmar ITLOS judgment. Following an analysis of the grey areas, Capt. Anurag mentioned that, in 2015, Bangladesh declared a set of four new basepoints that resulted in the southward shift of Bangladesh’s baseline reducing the India-Myanmar EEZ overlap area to nil. In the context of Bangladesh’s revision of basepoints, Capt. Anurag presented an assessment of India and Myanmar’s protests against the announcement. He noted that Bangladesh has not announced any alteration of the grey areas, the decisions rendered under the UNCLOS dispute resolution mechanisms are binding and that Bangladesh has reiterated its intention to follow arbitral awards.

Capt. Anurag then briefly addressed the practical consequences of the grey area and elucidated on the rights of India and Bangladesh for activities like scientific exploration and artificial installations in the grey area. In his discussion of the issue, Capt. Anurag also shed light on the dispute resolution mechanisms of the UNCLOS in such overlapping maritime claims. He pointed out that the UNCLOS does not provide clear mechanisms to resolve grey area disputes. It provides a cooperation-driven approach that places the burden of conduct on states. Capt. Anurag highlighted that bilateral cooperation continues to be the preferred approach for maritime resolutions and less than one per cent of disputes are settled through judicial decisions.

With this observation as the basis, Capt. Anurag moved to the next part of his presentation, which focused on cases of cooperative regimes in overlapping maritime claims from around the world. He began by presenting the case of Russia and Norway. In other examples, he presented cases from Denmark and the United Kingdom, France and Spain, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, Sudan and Saudi Arabia, Japan and South Korea, the Gulf of Thailand (comprising Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam) and Australia and Papua New Guinea. Capt. Bisen also briefly explored the cooperative arrangements in the South China Sea. He pointed out that, in 2018, China and the Philippines signed a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation in oil and gas development in the relevant maritime areas. Similarly, China and Vietnam signed the Gulf of Tonkin Agreement in 2000. He highlighted that rival states with a larger area at stake have managed to configure cooperative solutions to handle overlapping claims. However, such cooperative arrangements continue to remain absent in South Asia. Capt Bisen also derived common features of these cooperative regime resolutions. These included factors such as political will, the spirit of cooperation, clear definition of the grey area, clarity on jurisdiction and sovereignty, creation of a formal agreement, mechanisms for environment protection, collective maritime security operations and a without prejudice clause.

In the next part of his presentation, Capt. Bisen addressed the benefits of resolving the grey area issue. He argued that a resolution will facilitate clarity in regulation and extensive use of respective maritime zones. It will also enhance investor confidence and strengthen maritime security in the Bay of Bengal region. He mentioned that the resolution will align with India’s maritime policies of SAGAR, ‘Neighborhood First’, and ‘Act East’ and facilitate regional cooperation under the BIMSTEC. More importantly, it will enable India to explore and exploit the Eastern ECS legally.

As part of his conclusion, Capt. Bisen presented a set of recommendations to resolve the issue. He highlighted that India and Bangladesh have shared robust bilateral relations, including maritime cooperation. He also pointed out that the grey area is minuscule and represents only a 0.00017th part of India’s 2.3 million sq.km. EEZ. While these factors may facilitate cooperation between India and Bangladesh, the grey area of 2059 sq. km. between Bangladesh and Myanmar could prove challenging to resolve.

He presented that India and Myanmar and India and Bangladesh could solve their respective issues in the first stage of resolution. He argued that the same template could then be employed to resolve the Bangladesh- Myanmar grey area issue. He also recommended the creation of a Joint Boundary Working Group led by the Ministry of External Affairs or Bangladesh’s inclusion in the existing group with India and Myanmar. He concluded with an emphasis on India’s role in resolving the issue and its collective benefits for security and development.

DISCUSSION

Following Capt. Anurag’s presentation, MP-IDSA scholars had the opportunity to provide their valuable inputs. Dr. Smruti raised questions with regard to Bangladesh’s objections at the CLCS. With references to individual political figures in Bangladesh, she stated that the grey area issue needs domestic contextualisation. She added that the issue is also interlinked to Myanmar’s complicated relationship with Bangladesh and its policies on the Rohingya refugees. In her remarks, Dr. Smruti highlighted that the grey area issue between India and Bangladesh also raises doubts on the ‘Blue Economy’ partnership between the two states. In response to her queries, Capt. Anurag answered that India’s submission at the CLCS can be processed only after Bangladesh and Myanmar withdraw their objections. He reiterated that the impact of the complex relationship between Bangladesh and Myanmar can be countered by adopting a phase-by-phase bilateral discussion approach.

The discussion then shifted to Cmde. Abhay Singh who shared his personal experience on panel discussions with serving officers from Bangladesh. He highlighted the fundamental differences between grey areas and disputed areas. In addition, he made a query about the Joint Development MoUs in the South China Sea and their lack of implementation. Capt. Anurag stated that the purpose of using examples from the South China Sea region was to flag the absence of such agreements in South Asia.

Dr. Rajiv Nayan questioned the speaker about the possibility of India raising an appeal in the International Court of Justice against arbitrary decisions of the Tribunal. Capt. Anurag responded that while legally India may institute a fresh case under the ITLOS to seek its entitlements, it may not be viewed positively. He added that the 2014 Arbitral Tribunal verdict is final and binding.

Participating in the discussion, Dr. Gulbin Sultana raised a question on the status of Joint Development initiatives between India and Bangladesh and whether there are any discussions on artificial infrastructure installments between the two states. In his response, Capt. Anurag said that since both EEZ as well as Continental Shelf rights provide for installation of artificial structures, in the grey area, this might become a bone of contention. Lastly, Mr. Niranjan Oak raised a query on interlinkages of the Teesta Water agreement with the India- Bangladesh grey area issue.

The discussion ended with a vote of thanks by Dr. Smruti Pattanaik.

The report has been prepared by Ms Richa Kumaria, Intern, Non- Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA.

Interaction with a Media Delegation from the Maldives May 27, 2022 Other

A media delegation from the Maldives, accompanied by Mr. Karan Yadav, First Secretary, Embassy of India, Male, visited the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) on 27 May 2022, to have an interaction with the Institute. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA; Maj. Gen. (Dr). Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA; Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow; Col. Vivek Chadha (Retd.), Research Fellow; Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow; Dr. Adil Rasheed, Research Fellow; and Dr. Gulbin Sultana, Associate Fellow, enriched the discussion with their remarks and questions.

Executive Summary

The interactive discussion primarily centered around the following issues– India’s neighbourhood policy under Prime Minister Modi’s leadership, the historical and contemporary ties between India and the Maldives, and the increasing and predatory Chinese presence in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in the littoral states.

Detailed Report

The event ensued with the Director General’s introductory remarks, welcoming the media delegation to the institute, where he recalled his most recent visit to their country in March 2020. He also mentioned the joint webinar organised by MP-IDSA in conjunction with the South East Asia Regional Centre for Counter-Terrorism, Kuala Lumpur, that had taken place earlier that morning, titled “Countering the Threat of Radicalisation in India and Malaysia.” He also laid out a detailed outline of MP-IDSA’s objectives, mandate, research agenda and its existing infrastructure that facilitates research in diverse areas.

The Director General discussed the initiative he took during his stint at the National Security Council Secretariat, where exercise “Dosti,” between the coast guards of India and the Maldives was expanded to include Sri Lanka. He underlined that under Prime Minister Modi, India’s “Neighbourhood First Policy” has gained prominence, and its commitment to Maldives has remained intact. India’s policy towards Maldives is based on historic socio-cultural ties that the two countries have shared. It does not have a predatory attitude in its assistance as displayed by some other countries.

Additionally, he emphasised how growth and prosperity have moved beyond the Asia-Pacific region to include South Asia and South-East Asia. Today, Bangladesh and, particularly the Maldives, are outperforming India in certain specific sectors. Due to its high standard of living and per capita income being higher than other countries in South Asia, the Maldives has done exceedingly well. Furthermore, it is at the confluence of vital sea channels through which a vast amount of global trade traverses. However, its dependence on tourism to generate revenue and its scattered geography have emerged as two crucial challenges for the island nation. Repatriation and rehabilitation of terrorist fighters returning from conflict zones, confronting foreign influences, and radicalisation are also some of the notable challenges it faces.

The Director General even underscored how major powers such as the United States of America, France, and the United Kingdom, have maintained their presence in the Indo-Pacific region in several ways, including through their military presence. Today, Russians are also displaying renewed interest and are engaged in bilateral and trilateral exercises. He also emphasised that the current President of the United Nations General Assembly, Abdulla Shahid, will significantly contribute to the international body due to his vast expertise and experience.

The following points emerged from the floor during discussion.

One of the central themes, specifically regarding growing Chinese influence, was taken up, and it was discussed whether or not that is a factor in determining the scale of India’s involvement in the region. It was concluded that India has always been focused on neighbourhood growth and prosperity irrespective of China's activities. Prime Minister Modi’s policy of “Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas” reflects this. At the same time, one must understand that China’s rise is linked to its vast investments and is guided by its growing strategic interest. Its presence in the South Asian region contradicts its historical positioning and has only occurred over the past two decades. Therefore, China must be transparent about its investment and should not create a dependency-based relationship akin to Sri Lanka.

While India has reservations about Chinese actions, it does whatever it can to support its neighbours to chart an alternative path, including extending lines of credit without any strings attached. It has built a hospital in Malé and is currently involved in 45 projects in the country, largely micro projects, in contrast to China which is only involved in grander projects like the airport and port development. Another difference between the Indian and Chinese involvement is that while the former promotes inclusive and holistic growth, the latter can be characterised as predatory, aggressive, and fomenting divisiveness. Moreover, instead of cooperation with other countries, China has chosen the path of isolation.

In the western Indian Ocean Region (IOR), Chinese boats engage in illegal fishing in most months of the year. Therefore, the joint statement made by the QUAD partners in their recent summit even appealed to spread maritime awareness and halt illegal fishing, which has several ecological implications, including oil spills.

Moreover, China’s rise in the IOR has to be understood by the factors driving its strategy. Overarching trade interests, access to Africa as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, and ambition to mine crucial resources like Cobalt embedded in the sea bed, for which it has taken acreage down south, require its presence in and control of the oceanic spheres. Maritime piracy has allowed it to establish its naval domination and follow a neo-colonial approach. It is necessary to realise that it wants to de-link from the global supply chains and create dependency of the international community on the Chinese supply chains through such initiatives, thereby shaping the world in their likeness.

Transnational issues such as Islamist terrorism were also discussed. While this could be a challenge for India, it can become an existential threat for countries like Maldives due to the latter’s homogenous structure. As has been seen in the past, it becomes easier for non-state actors to stage a coup.

The participants also took up the matter of “India Out” campaign, directed against India. It was concluded that it is a highly politicised campaign and does not reflect popular sentiment. The Maldivians are unconcerned with who invests in the developmental sectors as long as it benefits them. However, it is critical to analyse where such propaganda is originating from and who is funding such activities. It was also noted that India has no interest in maintaining a military presence in the island nation. Any such presence visible has always been at the behest of the Maldivian government, including in 1988, when the Indian Armed Forces thwarted a coup led by Abdullah Luthufi against the then President Abdul Gayoom. Indians came to his aid faster than the Americans, whose nearest military base, Diego Garcia, is located 1000 kilometres away, in far closer proximity.

The session concluded with the possibility of future exchanges and a visit of the Indian delegation to the island country in the foreseeable future.

Report prepared by Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Counter-Terrorism Centre.

Report of Monday Morning Meeting on “Decoding Turkish Foreign Policy Recalibration” June 13, 2022 1000 hrs Monday Morning Meeting

Dr. Md. Muddassir Quamar, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on Decoding Turkish Foreign Policy Recalibration at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 13 June 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. P. K. Pradhan, Associate Fellow and was attended by Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, senior scholars, research analysts and interns of MP-IDSA.

Executive Summary

Since 2021, Turkish foreign policy approach towards the West Asian region has seen significant alterations. Turkey is now reconciling its relations with Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE. There is also a visible shift when it comes to its policy towards conflict in Libya and Syria. Furthermore, its approach towards Greece, Armenia and the Russia-Ukraine conflict underline a degree of foreign policy recalibration.

The presentation highlighted the key guiding principles of Turkey’s foreign policy and focused on its reconciliation process towards the West Asian and North African region. While explaining the Turkish foreign policy recalibration, the speaker focused on the domestic, regional and international factors which have driven this change. 

Detailed Report

Dr. Md. Muddassir Quamar started his presentation by giving an overview of Turkish foreign policy and defining the key guiding principles of Turkey’s foreign policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. These principles are neo-Ottomanism, pan-Islamism, strategic depth, zero-problem with neighbours and blue homeland. He further stated that Turkey’s approach towards the region contributed to geopolitical competition in the Middle East over the past decade. Following the principle of neo-Ottomanism and pan-Islamism, Erdogan has tried to achieve the glory of the Ottoman Empire and projected Turkey as a leader of the Islamic world. The doctrine of strategic depth asserts that Turkey should have greater influence in the areas around its borders and should expand its relations with the periphery. It also follows the zero-problem with neighbours policy which is part of its strategic depth doctrine. According to the speaker, the zero-problem with neighbours’ policy has proved to be a zero-friend policy for Turkey in West Asia. Turkey’s blue homeland policy focuses on Turkish influence in maritime domains, especially in the Black Sea, Sea of Marmara, Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean Sea. All these policies created a geopolitical quagmire in West Asia that got aggravated after the Arab Spring, where Turkey played a very crucial role as a major regional power in intensifying regional rivalries.  This led to serious problems between Turkey and regional countries such as Egypt, the United Arab Emirate (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Dr. Quamar said that since 2021 there has been a noticeable shift in Turkish foreign policy towards the region. While highlighting the shifts, he explained the changing relations of Turkey with Israel, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. There is also a visible shift when it comes to its policy towards conflict in Libya and Syria. Furthermore, its approach towards Greece, Armenia and Russia-Ukraine conflict has seen a certain degree of change.

With regard to the UAE, there have been important diplomatic visits between the two countries. In November 2021, Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited Turkey and this was reciprocated by President Erdogan’s visit to UAE in February 2022. The reconciliation process between Turkey and UAE has centred on deepening trade and economic relations, especially in the defence sector along with health, food security and climate change. Apart from economic issues, the two countries are also discussing regional issues of mutual interest, such as the situation in Libya and Syria.

Similarly, relations between Turkey and Israel have also been changing. Though Operation Cast Lead and the Mavi Marmara Incident caused deterioration in relations between the two countries, in the last few years engagement between them has improved. Both the countries are having an exchange of high-level visits such as, Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s visit to Turkey in March 2022. According to Dr. Quamar, the focus of these engagements is on improving energy, trade and economic ties. However, the Palestinian issues and Turkish indirect support to Hamas can be an issue of friction. Due to this reason, one cannot be certain about the success of the process of reconciliation between Israel and Turkey.

According to Dr. Quamar, another important development from the Turkish foreign policy point of view has been the reconciliation between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Both are trying to move ahead from the Khashoggi crisis that adversely impacted relations between the two. This reconciliation process also highlights that Turkey is ready to end the isolation of Mohammed Bin Salman Al Saud from regional and international politics. Turkish foreign policy vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia has also been driven by economic factors. However, the speaker observed that there are issues which can derail the reconciliation process, namely, the competition between the two for global Islamic leadership. 

Egypt is another regional country with whom Turkey is in the process of reconciliation. Though, unlike aforementioned countries, no major visits have taken place between Egypt and Turkey, but at delegation level both are engaging with each other. According to Dr. Quamar, Turkey’s guidelines for the domestic Muslim Brotherhood linked media houses to tone down their criticism of President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi and Egypt, is an important development with regard to reconciliation with Egypt.

Though, Dr. Quamar underlined the uncertainty about whether Turkey will completely abandon the Muslim Brotherhood or not, he said that Ankara has shown willingness to be more accommodative towards the concerns of regional countries such as, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt which are sensitive about giving space to Muslim Brotherhood. Furthermore, similar to other countries, economic ties are a major point of focus of Turkish reconciliation with Egypt.

While discussing the reasons for Turkish foreign policy recalibration, Dr. Quamar said that there are domestic, regional and international factors for this policy. However, the most important ones are domestic factors.  The Turkish economy is going through a difficult time wherein inflation in the country has increased by 70 per cent. There has been a drop in the value of Lira and a rise in poverty. In addition, the country has also witnessed a decline in tourism and exports. Politically, it is the first time that the Turkish opposition is feeling confident in challenging Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP). The results of the 2019 municipal elections underlined that Erdogan’s support base is also shrinking. However, Dr. Quamar said that this might not be sufficient to replace Erdogan. According to him, another domestic political reason for recalibration is Turkey’s 2023 elections.

While discussing the regional and international factors, Dr. Quamar said that  the Abraham Accords (2020) have broken Turkish exceptionalism, because Turkey was the only country which had good relations with Israel, despite having diplomatic issues. According to him, the Abraham Accords which have initiated a regional process of normalisation of ties between Israel and the Gulf countries, might be a major reason for alteration in Turkey’s foreign policy. Furthermore, the end of GCC crises after the Al Ula Declaration contributed in changing its foreign policy approach. According to Dr. Quamar, there have been regional dialogues and talks such as those between Iran-Saudi Arabia, UAE-Syria and Egypt-Qatar. It seems Turkey is also following these regional trends. In addition, the COVID-19 crisis and change of administration in the US are other factors for alteration in Turkey’s approach towards the region.

While discussing the implications, Dr. Quamar said it is difficult to say whether these recalibration efforts will ease regional tensions or they will sustain. He finally noted that the Turkish foreign policy approach provides India a window of opportunity in the economic and political domains. 

In his remarks, Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) said that Turkey has the ambition of becoming the regional power and asked how is Turkey’s foreign policy recalibration relevant for the Indian subcontinent, and what could be the implications for India, of Turkey’s forays in South Asia. He also underlined the wider global churn going on with regard to developments vis-à-vis China and Russia that might also be impacting Turkish behaviour.

Important Points Made in the Q&A Session

  • Turkey wants to emerge as a major defence exporter. In the many regional conflicts such as Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine-Russia and the Libyan conflict it has been a major supplier of drones and other equipment which has played an important role in its emergence as a defence power house in the region and beyond.
  • Turkey sees Muslim countries as part of its area of influence and recalibration in Turkish foreign policy does not change the guiding principles of its foreign policy.
  • Geo-economics plays an influential role in Turkey-Iran relations. When it comes to the West Asian region, there are some overlaps in the approaches of both the countries wherein both want to enhance economic relations. However, Northern Syria and Northern Iraq remain areas of friction in their relations. With regard to the Kurdish issue, there is convergence in the approach of the two countries.
  • With regard to Ukraine-Russia conflict, Turkey continues to project itself as a mediator country. It has criticised Russia but it has not joined the US and Western camp.
  • With respect to Finland and Sweden's willingness to join North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Turkey is not likely to relent in its opposition until the two countries recognise the security threat posed by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is considered a terror group by Ankara.
  • Regarding Africa, Turkey has been following the policy of reaching out to the African countries especially to those in North Africa, the Horn of Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. This policy is unlikely to see any reversal.
  • Turkey-India relations are still stuck in the Cold War paradigm and have not progressed. The strengthening of economic ties has contributed to Indo-Gulf and Indo-Iranian reconciliation. Similarly, enhanced economic engagement can help overcome the hurdles in improving India-Turkey ties.
Eurasia & West Asia Turkey, Foreign Policy
Report on “Countering the Threat of Radicalisation in India and Malaysia” MP-IDSA – SEARCCT Joint Webinar May 27, 2022 Other

The joint webinar on radicalisation in India and Malaysia was held on 27 May 2022 and was organised by MP-IDSA and SEARCCT, Malaysia. The Director-General MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and Director-General SEARCCT, Ambassador Dato’ Ganeson Sivagurunathan delivered the opening remarks and chaired respective sessions of the programme. During the first session, Dr. Ahmad El-Muhammady Bin Muhammad Uthman El-Muhammady spoke on “Radicalisation in Malaysia.” He was succeeded by Mr. Supt Loo Chee Lum who spoke on “Capacity Building Programmes,” and Ms. Pa Arul Malar Palaniveloo who talked about “Youth & P/CVE - Counter Messaging, Social Media and Outreach.” During the second session, Shri Pradeep Gautam delivered his remarks on “The Threat of Religious Ideological Extremism in the Indian Subcontinent,” followed by Dr. Adil Rasheed who spoke on “India’s Counter Radicalisation: Measures and Programmes,” and Ms. Shruti Pandalai who spoke on “Combating Radicalisation in the Social Media: The Indian Experience.” India’s High Commissioner to Malaysia Shri B.N. Reddy also gave his comments which was followed by an interactive Q&A session. The webinar was concluded with closing remarks from the Deputy Director-General at MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), and Deputy Director-General at SEARCCT, Ambassador Khairi Omar.

Executive Summary:

The session was helpful in bringing forth the issue of radicalisation and its impact from an inter-regional perspective. The speakers shared their insights on the nature of radicalisation in India and Malaysia which would be vital in developing counter strategies that address these specific areas. Despite robust programs in both countries on counter terrorism and counter radicalisation, it was agreed that regular updating with the evolving discourse is essential, and corresponding training of the personnel is therefore necessary. The issue of online radicalisation and role of technology both as a challenge and as a tool to fight radicalisation was elaborated upon. It was agreed that novel ways of reaching to the public by extremist groups will necessitate innovative ways by the governments in countering such narratives. Therefore, Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) will be an evolving methodology that grows in response to the tactics adopted by the extremist and radical groups.

Detailed Report:

Ambassador Chinoy began the session with his opening remarks and underscored the good relations between India and Malaysia, along with their shared concern over terrorism which has also impacted economic growth. He spoke of the increasing threat of terror groups’ access to Weapons of Mass Destruction and how that has worried governments. After the success of Taliban in Afghanistan, terrorist groups across the world have been emboldened. Ambassador Chinoy outlined the efforts India has made on working on legislation to curb terrorism, border management and elaborated on the impetus given to appropriate training of its law enforcement personnel to tackle such terrorist threats. India has also engaged with multilateral institutions and the UN to create frameworks on curbing terrorism, including pushing for a comprehensive global convention on terrorism.

Ambassador Sivagurunathan welcomed the speakers and participants, and highlighted issues of violent extremism in his address. Speaking on the shared interests of India and Malaysia on countering violent extremism, he hoped the two countries could find useful ways of working together to solve this problem. He outlined his nation’s experience, crediting law enforcement agencies working tirelessly to resolve the issues of terrorism and radicalisation with considerable investment of time and resources. Emphasising that it is important to collaborate on these issues with like-minded partners from across the borders, he   stressed that within the country too help from the private sector should be sought to disseminate counter narratives of the government.

In the first session featuring Malaysian speakers, Dr. El-Muhammady began his presentation and familiarised the audience with internalisation of radical ideas and its impact. He underlined that an individual may internalise these ideas but problems arise when they translate it into violent actions. In his talk, he emphasised that terrorism may be related to the cultural and religious framework in a society. In Malaysia, the criteria to view terrorism has been defined by the law, mainstream Islamic values, and universal values. Since Malaysian society is multi-racial, multi-ethnic, and multi-religious, it has led to more vulnerabilities. A highly diverse population which consists of indigenous bhoomiputras, Indians, Chinese and non-Malaysians who follow different religions is a ground for extremist groups to propagate their ideology and violence. With globalisation, the influx of foreign ideas and values has also led to increase in radicalisation. Social media is the newest platform for widespread dissemination of radical ideas, which is often not monitored by enforcement authorities, due to problems of locating the source. Malaysia has faced the challenge of radicalisation since colonial times and the communist insurgency. The long term strategy therefore should be developing public awareness and outreach apart from kinetic approaches like detention. Radicalisation is a subtle phenomenon which can keep growing beneath the surface. It requires being vigilant on a more comprehensive level he argued.

Mr. Loo Chee Lum familiarised the audiences with SEARCCT’s capacity building programmes to counter terrorism. He highlighted that they adopt a multi-faceted approach through various training conferences, workshops, and forums. He outlined the many webinars conducted by the institute even during the COVID-19 Pandemic, including with the Australian High Commission and with Sarawak Information Systems. These programs are focused on engaging different stakeholders to curb terrorism and radicalisation in the society.

Ms. Palaniveloo spoke about the Digital Strategic Communications Division at SEARCCT. She outlined how the division develops youth campaigns focusing on creating content like video campaigns which aim at engaging the young people in society. These generally include influencers and inspirational examples from society. The team also talks to detainees as well as people in rehabilitation to understand different perspectives that they include in the content they create. She highlighted the special attention given to rural areas in the campaigns which are designed to ensure relatability of people in specific areas. They do this by including colloquial phrases of the local language which appeal to this audience. The division lays special stress not only on how technology plays a role in spread of radicalisation, but also how it can be used to fight radicalisation. COVID-19 has compelled many things to go online, which means that extremist groups have also increased their activity online and therefore require quicker responses she argued.

The second session featured speakers from the Indian side. Shri Gautam’s presentation focused on the Indian subcontinent, which he argued is faced with multiple challenges of radicalisation but there are some commonalities. Radicalisation in Maldives is increasingly becoming a concern as Salafi influence has been increasing. The funding and education in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has been the major factor for this increased radicalisation. In India, there has been left wing extremism and right wing mobilisation but the proportion of persons involved in these activities is very small, he argued. He elaborated upon how: Ahl-e-Hadis, Deobandis, Barelvis, Jamaat-e-Islami are some prominent ideological groups in India, of which some sections have been known to propagate extremist ideas.

Dr. Rasheed during his talk highlighted that Indian Muslims follow a number of Islamic schools of thought. The threat of radicalisation, therefore, is also of different types. Apart from Salafi Jihadism which has been recognised around the world as an extremist ideology, there has been consistent threat from Pakistan based extremist terror groups operating in India such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. A third type is the indigenous terror groups but their impact should not be underestimated. He made the case that the difference in language used by all these groups is an important distinction in the kind of access they gain among Indian public. While ISIS based propaganda is global and often in English, it may have limited reach among Indian masses but Pakistan based radical groups use Urdu language and social media. He outlined how indigenous groups use vernacular languages and stress on a communal angle in their propaganda. The Indian Government has given certain leeway to state governments in devising and running their own counter-radicalisation programs. He inferred that Western programs in that context do not work in India, as Indian Muslims are not racially different from the mainstream population, unlike the case in the West, where they mostly seek to assimilate immigrant and refugee populations. Maharashtra’s de-radicalisation program has received praise and Mumbai police has been able to de-radicalise hundreds of citizens. Such programs have also been quite successful in Kerala. The Jihadist threat in the eastern and southern Indian regions such as in states of West Bengal and Tamil Nadu respectively, can be tracked to radicalisation originating from Southeast Asia. Thus, India’s cooperation with Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, to counter this threat is important.

Ms. Pandalai during her presentation, spoke about the information ecosystem in India and how radical groups may use the grey areas to their advantage and challenges for government agencies in India. She argued that there are more than 400 million social media users in India who are vulnerable to fake news, as their primary source of news consumption may be from unverified sources including applications like WhatsApp. Given the scale of socioeconomic challenges in India, technology can both empower and create law and order challenges, proving to be a double-edged sword in this context. She outlined how India has to grapple with the multiple challenges of communally stoked law and order issues, online radicalisation and cross-border terrorism, all amplified by social media and demonstrated that in many cases these are not mutually exclusive. For instance, fake news and disinformation in social media has caused many incidences of violence in India. In 2016, ISIS had directly used social media to target Indian Muslims by exploiting issues of Kashmir, nostalgia of the Mughal era, and the Babri Masjid demolition. The worrisome fact is that according to the National Investigation Agency, educated youth are getting drawn to this kind of propaganda, which may even lead to lone wolf attacks. The case of Burhan Wani in Kashmir is a classic example of the impact of social media and how it can recruit young men into activities of radicalisation. Ms. Pandalai outlined responses from the Indian Government including the rich experiences of the military in Kashmir which has been running de-radicalisation programs for many decades and has involved local population and clergy successfully. However, she argued that challenges remain as internet shutdown as response to social media triggered crises has caused problems for local communities and more needs to be done to bridge the trust deficit between social media platforms and government agencies. There is also a need for more sensitisation at the ground level to build confidence among local citizens and involve them in these outreach activities which use social media as a tool for engagement. Exchanging best practices with partner countries is the way ahead in improving our counter-radicalisation programs.

After the sessions were concluded, the floor was opened for questions and answers. In response to a query, Dr. El-Muhammady told the audiences that the Malaysian Government was initially reluctant to accept the Malaysian foreign fighters who had gone to fight alongside ISIS in Syria, but given legal obligations and ethical considerations, it decided to later accept them in a phased manner. This has been done through inter-agency cooperation at an international level, and a number of returnees have been accepted. A three-level assessment of the returnees is mandatory, involving security and psychological analysis, to determine if they maybe a threat to Malaysian society. The individual may be prosecuted or rehabilitated depending upon the result. On the issue of women and their role in online radicalisation, he said that there has been an increase in participation of women, notably those propagating ISIS content online. To counter this problem, the Malaysian Government has included more women in its counter-radicalisation programs like Countering Violent Extremism (CVE). Dr. Rasheed, to a query about counter narratives, told the audience that it may not be possible to assess in empirical terms how counter narratives are affecting the population. But given the huge amount of resources extremist groups invest in spreading radicalisation, it is imperative that effort to create and sustain counter-narratives is maintained. He also added that the Indian population does not resonate much with the Bangladeshi school of Islamic thought but there is formidable threat from Pakistan based radical groups.

Shri B.N. Reddy, H. E. High Commissioner of India to Malaysia, joined the conversation and  expressed his pleasure at the successful conduct of the session and hoped there would be more discussions in the future between MP-IDSA and SEARCCT. He expressed gratitude to both the Institutes working to promote de-radicalisation efforts.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bakshi (Retd.) offered closing remarks for the session. He underlined that foreign influences have caused disharmony among ethnicities and diverse communities of both the countries, which had peacefully co-existed before globalisation. It is important to prevent vulnerable sections of our population from falling prey to the radicalisation propaganda. The security apparatus in both countries have evolved unique counter strategies to deal with this problem. He shared his personal experience of being in the National Security Guard where he was involved in capacity building measures. He emphasised that international cooperation to counter radicalisation is very important given the trans-national nature of this threat. He also stressed that terror financing in particular must receive more attention as an area of study. He thanked the Director-Generals and Speakers from both the Institutes for their comments and the Participants for their contribution to the discussion. He expressed gratitude to the High Commissioner, Ms. Nair, Mr. Vardhan, Centre for Southeast Asia and Oceania at MP-IDSA, SEARCCT Malaysia and the technical team in putting the event together. Ambassador Omar in his closing remarks expressed that efforts in understanding radicalisation and developing counter strategy and counter narratives are crucial to maintaining peace and security in our societies. He added that the policy of engaging more people in this activity of countering extremist propaganda can be very useful and it can help build confidence among the people for each government’s efforts in tackling this problem.

The report was prepared by Mr. Akash Sahu, Research Analyst, Centre for Southeast Asia and Oceania, MP-IDSA.

Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Revisiting the Cyber Aspects of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict June 06, 2022 1000 hrs Monday Morning Meeting

Dr. Cherian Samuel, Research Fellow, in the Strategic Technologies Centre at the Manohar Parikkar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “Revisiting the the Cyber Aspects of the Russia- Ukraine Conflict” at the Monday morning meeting held on 6 June 2022.  The session was moderated by Dr. Rajeesh Kumar, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA.  Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA and the scholars of the Institute were in the attendance.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Over the past couple of months, the world has witnessed that conventional warfare has a brother in arms – namely cyber warfare. Microsoft’s report dated 27 April 2022 clearly underlined the extent of cyber attacks on Ukrainian soil. The effects of this are temporarily debilitating but it is bound to leave a permanent mark on the military strategy of any aggressor country in the years to come.

DETAILED REPORT

Dr. Rajeesh Kumar, the moderator, during his opening remarks, introduced the attendees to the capability of Russian cyber malware to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure. He also added that, this does not pertain only to the Russian-Ukraine war but every warfare has a cyber element present in it.

Dr. Cherian Samuel started with explaining why he chose the phrase revisiting the cyber aspects of the Russian- Ukrainian conflict. He mentioned that it was initially thought that the cyber element would take centre stage. He also opined that it was thought that the 2017 malware attack would provide lessons for the attackers which had resulted in gargantuan global financial losses and would, in turn, ensure that the extent of the attack stays localised. The software companies and cyber security providers were also staying ahead of the game this time around, providing patches and fixing software vulnerabilities.

Dr. Cherian elucidated the developments that took place over the three months after the war began. Different types of attacks ranging from espionage, data extraction, denial of services, phishing scams were meted out on the Ukrainians. A range of malwares to cripple the critical infrastructure were also deployed. He stressed upon the fact that the victims were not limited to only the Ukrainians but the spill over effects affected multiple governments, private enterprises and individuals.

The first of the big attacks took place on 24 February 2022 on the Viasat modems, where the malware erased every trace of data and affected the satellite internet rendering them inoperable. It is also the first example where synchronisation between kinetic warfare and cyber warfare was witnessed. The ripples of this cyber-attack were felt across Europe with 2000 German windfarms losing communications and internet service disruption was seen in Europe. Media companies and outlets were in the crosshairs of this synchronised attack campaign and on 1 March 2022, missiles struck Kyiv TV tower. Adding to the woes was the attempt to take down the electrical grid which was eventually thwarted by the Ukrainian cyber defence on 8 April 2022.

Dr. Cherian shed some light on the 27 April 2022 Microsoft report highlighting the evolving pattern of attacks, the unsavoury alliance of kinetic and cyber-attacks and the key Russian players involved both offline and online, such as GRU, SVR, FSB amongst other players as reported in the Microsoft study. Despite these cyber attack perpetrators remaining in the shadows, their impeccable coordination is noteworthy.

Another aspect which Dr.Cherian pointed out was the hostile reaction from Ukrainians towards the Russians. Some examples cited were the anonymous hacking of the Russian Ministry of Defence database and media outlets, releasing names of the Russian Army personnel who were involved in the warfare and Ukraine’s defence intelligence service penetrating the Beloyarsk Nuclear Plant. He also expanded on the statement of the US Head of Cyber Command, given to Sky News, on the US carrying out multi-pronged operations in this campaign, bolstering the Ukrainian side.

Dr. Cherian brought forth another critical question of why the news of Russian cyber salvo against the Ukrainians has been muted. Multiple reasons were cited namely, improvement in Ukrainian cyber defences, one time use nature of these attacks, Russia’s hesitancy to augment collateral damage, amongst other reasons. According to him, if less attention is paid to the extent of the collateral damages and no attempt to limit them is made then, these cyber attacks seem to have a higher chance of success.

Certain pointers were given by Dr. Cherian namely, cyber attack no longer being an attacker’s game, enhanced improvement in the coordination between the government and private actors, US cyber infrastructure operating in exile, in a manner of speaking, amongst other things. In his concluding remarks he made the observation that the US’ explicit declaration of cyber attacks was an attempt to move the needle further on legitimising such actions, to which the Russians did not have an adequate response since they have eschewed having equivalent structures, to maintain plausible deniability.

DISCUSSION

Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi stated that the Russians were the first to recognise the criticality of information warfare to  national security and cited the 2015 Russian National Security Strategy document to shed light on the centrality of this aspect. He also brought into attention the Crimean campaign and the extensive use of information warfare which was in turn meticulously studied by countries like UK and the USA. The US cyber command was given the status of a combatant command by the USA and the UK’s 77th brigade was turned into an information manoeuvre organisation as information is the lifeblood of the battlefield. He also highlighted the underplaying of the Russian cyber salvo by the media and the synchronisation between kinetic and cyber warfare domain. As a part of his closing remarks, he stressed upon the prospects of lessons for India in both in the defensive and offensive domain.

Krutika Patil highlighted the fact that the cyber conflict did not live up to the hype. One crucial aspect, according to her, is the role of non-state actors and their unbridled jurisdiction and the state’s inability to counter them. She raised the question whether there was a deliberate attempt to not put these non-state actors in check.

Dr. Swasti Rao shed some light on the series of patterns that can be witnessed in Russia’s Baltic States’ destabilisation attempts as the former are a part of the NATO. She also stated the fact that apart from the USA’s role in bolstering the Ukrainian campaign against the Russians, EU’s role cannot be ignored. They are equally important in the grand scheme of things. Her final observation was on the Russian cyber attack being muted. The reasons she stated for this were the Western backlash and the non availability of a justification for such an asymmetric conflict.

Captain Anurag Bisen raised questions pertaining to non-state actors and private companies and the push towards ‘atmanirbharta’ when it comes to interoperability between the state and the private companies keeping in mind the exiling of Ukrainian ministries to the cloud space within days.

Dr. Rajiv Nayan had put forward the question of the assessment of cyber damages to the Ukrainian side. He stated that the USA and other Western powers’ main talking points revolve around Russia and no considerable damage was seen in Ukraine. He further elaborated by mentioning the US defence report wherein cyber attack was labelled as a hyped threat, as multiplicity of firewalls would prevent any attack on the critical infrastructure. Questions on the nature of cyber threat being a hype or not, and limitations of cyber attacks were raised.

The Report has been prepared by Mr. Stephen Koshy James, Intern, Nuclear and Arms Control Centre, MP-IDSA.

Non-Traditional Security Cyber Security, Russia-Ukraine Relations
Panel Discussion on "Civil-Military Fusion in India” June 14, 2022 1100 hrs Other

Event Report

The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) organised a Panel Discussion on Civil-Military Fusion in India” on Tuesday, 14 June 2022 at 1100h in the MP-IDSA AuditoriumThe discussion was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General, MP-IDSA who also delivered the opening remarks. The Keynote Address was delivered by Lt. Gen. Raj Shukla, PVSM, YSM, SM, ADC, (Retd.) ex GOC-in-C ARTRAC and discussants included Lt. Gen. C.P. Mohanty, PVSM, AVSM, SM, VSM (Retd.), former Vice Chief of Army Staff, Shri Sanjay Mitra, former Defence Secretary, Government of India and AVM Anil Golani (Retd.). The vote of thanks was delivered by Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, AVSM, VSM (Retd.), the Deputy Director General of MP-IDSA. The event was attended by the scholars of MP-IDSA and distinguished serving and retired officers of the Indian Armed Forces, Ministry of Defence, scholars from prominent Think Tanks as also representatives from CII and private industry. The event was also live-streamed on YouTube.

Executive Summary

The concept of Civil-Military Fusion (CMF) denotes the convergence of military and civilian resources and systems for maximising a nation’s ability to express its comprehensive national power both during war and peacetime. The circulation of resources between civilian and military departments as well as private industry and academia has been inadequate in India. There is an urgent need for opening up hitherto fore protected areas such as high-end technology defence manufacturing, space and cyber technologies to the private sector which has enormous talent and resources. A revolving door mechanism between civil and military as practiced in the US will be highly advantageous for India and this would facilitate ‘Make in India’ and ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ in defence manufacturing. In the early years after Independence, the then prevailing political maxims of India discouraged entrepreneur zeal, business development and capacity building which are the key pillars of wealth creation. Qualitative aggregation of resources and capacity from both the civil and military domains is the cornerstone of CMF. The granite walls that exist between the silos of civil and military institutions must be collapsed in order to allow seamless infusion of talent and capacities in the military, civil services, scientific community, academia, industries, domain experts, technologists and entrepreneurs. The ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic is a clear example of the interdependence of technology and global supply chains. The complex security challenges of the Twenty-First Century demand complex security responses. 

Taking these aspects into context the United States Army Futures Command (AFC) has been established as a public-private partnership. The AFC is strategically located in the city of Austin, Texas which is considered to be America’s innovation hub. The AFC has been a top recruiter of talented students, professionals and entrepreneurs by capitalising on the robust startup ecosystem in Austin. The AFC is an example that denotes the complexity ingrained in the concept of CMF as it consists of numerous layers and nuances.  Another example of a successful CMF is the reservist service in the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) that has created a revolving door ecosystem between civil and military domains. As a result, talented professionals and technocrats have oscillated between the civil and military domains creating a robust defence startup ecosystem. Similarly, China is also creating a robust CMF through a military-academic complex where the state identifies and funds the brightest students and scholars to pursue doctoral research in the best institutions abroad and subsequently, this talent becomes the driving factor behind China’s technological and scientific innovation in defence manufacturing. Turkey becoming a drone superpower is another example of a successful CMF. The Bayraktar drone which is a product of CMF has bestowed Turkey with power projection capabilities to eliminate inimical threats at the source.

As far as CMF in India is concerned, the foundational metrics are undergoing rapid changes. The establishment of the Chief of Defence Staff & Department of Military Affairs (CDS-DMA) has been path-breaking as it empowered the defence services to think, articulate, design and drive change in the national security system. Despite these changes, India’s delivery in terms of CMF has been sub-optimal. The civilian domain of the Indian startup industry has undergone more growth as opposed to startups working in the military domain. Unless the startups in the military domain gain rapid acceleration, there is a risk of them petering out.

CMF goes beyond the structural merging and also involves the merging of thought processes between the civil and military domains. The Ukraine Crisis where small and agile technologies are challenging traditional legacy systems has illustrated the importance of technological innovations in defence productions. Multidisciplinary research is the key to creating a robust ecosystem in India for achieving self-reliance.The CMF is the right metric and instrument to further embellish India’s national power for attaining a position of prominence in the World.

Detailed Report

Col. Deepak Kumar, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA welcomed the forum by extending his warm wishes to the distinguished panellists, attendees and scholars from MP-IDSA. He described the concept of Civil-Military Fusion (CMF) as the process of combining civil and military resources for achieving a very high level of technological competence.         Col. Kumar stated that the civil society and military have corroborated in the past, especially during the Second World War in countries like the US, Japan and Germany. With these remarks, Col. Kumar welcomed Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General, MP-IDSA to deliver his opening remarks to the august gathering.

Opening Remarks

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy began his opening remarks by defining the concept of CMF as the convergence of military and civilian resources for maximising a nation’s ability to express its comprehensive national power, both during war and peacetime. He described dual-use technologies and collaborations as the heart of civil-military confluence. The Director General pointed out that there have been several instances where military R&D and private enterprises have developed cutting-edge technologies and services that have been used in both the civilian and military domains. He stated that the CMF has gained prominence in recent years mainly due to an array of initiatives taken by Chinese President Xi Jinping towards enhancing CMF in China. The Director-General also brought out that the initiation of CMF in China predates the establishment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Both the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had established defence industries in different parts of China during the Chinese Civil War itself. He stated that after the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s the PRC increased its focus on CMF even further in order to achieve a high degree of self-reliance in diverse fields like atomic bombs, space and defence equipment. During the 1990s China’s defence industries also engaged in manufacturing consumer goods. He recalled that during this era the PLA, in order to raise funds for its modernisation drive, engaged in commercial activities like running hotels, resorts and golf clubs. Eventually, in 1998 the then Chinese President Jiang Zemin banned such activities and directed the PLA to focus on its core soldiering activities while assuring adequate funding for its modernisation efforts. Taking this into context, the Director General stressed that the Government must ensure adequate funding and resources for ensuring CMF develops in a manner that facilitates a nation in achieving its national objective.


The Director General brought out that China is renowned for utilising its academia, scientists, students and entrepreneurs to gain knowledge and intelligence to further its strategic objectives. He highlighted the fact that CMF has been absorbed throughout the annals of history and averred that the foundation of British Colonialism in India was laid through the successful CMF between the British East India Company and the British Crown. He accentuated the fact that with the proliferation of dual-use technologies and the advent of niche technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics and drones the relevance and scope of CMF has been expanding.


He brought out that the strategic discourse in India is centred only on jointness among the three services and the need for inclusion of the military into the higher decision-making structures of the Government. He suggested that there is an urgent need for opening up protected areas such as defence manufacturing, space and cyber technologies to the private sector which has enormous talent and resources. He brought out/ stated that although the Government has taken many steps toward enhancing CMF, much more needs to be done. The Director General underscored the importance of the circulation of human resources between civilian and military departments as well as private industry and academia which has been inadequate in India. He opined that a revolving door system between civil and military as practiced in the US will be highly advantageous for India and this would facilitate ‘Make in India’and ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ in defence manufacturing. He also suggested that India must evolve its own model for CMF given its historic experience, circumstances and resources. With these remarks, Ambassador Chinoy welcomed Lt. Gen. Raj Shukla to deliver the Keynote Address.

Key Note Address

Lt. Gen. Raj Shukla started his keynote address by recalling his brief stint in MP-IDSA in 2009 as a scholar pursuing research in the area of Civil-Military Relations (CMR). He also recalled the redundant nature of the discourse that then prevailed with regard to CMR in India. Gen. Shukla brought into perspective the evolution of CMF in India since its independence. He stated that the degree of paranoia and suspicion that existed between the civilian leadership and the military in the early years after Independence due to the military coups across India’s neighbourhood, greatly undermined the prospects of CMF in India. He also brought out that the then prevailing political maxims in India discouraged entrepreneurial zeal, business development and capacity building which are the key pillars in wealth creation. Gen Shukla then went on to highlight the key components of comprehensive military power which include jointness among services and technological prowess. He stated that developing each of these characteristics involves decades of policy making and efforts to materialise them on the ground. This has been evident from India’s efforts to implement jointness among the three services.  He pointed out that the current initiatives regarding CMF involve bringing together attributes and talents from diverse domains in the resolute pursuit of national security interest.

Qualitative aggregation of resources and capacities from both the civil and military domains was cited as the cornerstone of CMF by Gen. Shukla. He stressed that granite walls that exist between the silos of civil and military institutions must be collapsed. This would allow the seamless infusion of talent and capacities in the military, civil services, scientific community, academia, industries, domain experts, technologists and entrepreneurs. He invoked a cultural imagery to denote CMF as the fusion of Goddesses Saraswati (Centre of Knowledge and Research), Lakshmi (Centre of Business & Wealth Creation) and Durga (Instrument of Power). Gen. Shukla brought out that the concept of CMF is driven by the philosophy that national security is extremely complex, sophisticated and competitive and that no single institution on its own can realise its objectives. Taking into context the sub-optimal performance of the Russian military in the ongoing Ukrainian War, Gen. Shukla brought out that one of the reasons is their weakness in microelectronics. This is because in the modern military platforms the microchips are a critical component and manufacturing of these microchips has an extensive supply chain that encompasses over seventy nations. A major semiconductor supplier is dependent on almost 1600 suppliers across the globe. He stated that in order to overcome these complexities it is essential to break out of the silos that have been created between civil and military domains. Gen. Shukla cited the ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic as a clear example of the interdependence of technology and global supply chains. He opined that complex security challenges of the Twenty-first Century demand complex security responses. 

Gen. Shukla then proceeded to the next segment of his address where he brought out some credible examples to illustrate CMF. The first example that he cited was that of the United States Army Futures Command (AFC) which was established as the Americans realised that they were falling behind in the technological and innovation game with China. The military-academic complex of China is posing a very serious threat to the famed military-industrial complex of the US. Gen. Shukla recalled his meeting with a General of AFC who described this military command as a public-private partnership. The rationale behind the conception of the AFC was to converge the best of both, the public and private sectors, for creating a culture of innovation and delivery. The AFC is strategically located in the city of Austin which is the capital of Texas and is considered to be America’s innovation hub. He described the AFC as a mature entrepreneurial incubator hub with access to cutting-edge talents. The AFC has been a top recruiter of talented students, professionals and entrepreneurs by capitalising on the robust startup ecosystem in Austin. He brought out that entrepreneurs like Elon Musk and his company SpaceX have been the prime driving force behind the revolutionary metamorphosis that the American Military-Industrial complex is currently undergoing. Gen. Shukla underscored that the AFC is an example that denotes the complexity of CMF that encompasses numerous layers and nuances.  

The second example that Gen Shukla cited for understanding CMF was of the reservist service in the IDF that has created a revolving door ecosystem between civil and military domains. As a result, talented professionals and technocrats have oscillated between the civil and military domains creating a robust defence startup ecosystem. IDF’s intelligence corps known as 8200 specialises in identifying and absorbing the best talents from the young Israeli population. They are then groomed into specialists and technocrats who subsequently are instrumental in creating innovations through startups that greatly enhance IDF’s combat capability. Gen. Shukla then took the example of China’s military-academic complex where the government identifies and funds the brightest students and scholars to pursue doctoral research in the best institutions abroad and subsequently this talent becomes the driving factor behind China’s technological and scientific innovation in defence manufacturing. He also pointed out the Chinese tactics of using strategic cunningness and pragmatism for procuring critical technologies as opposed to the traditional methods of procurement. Gen. Shukla brought out that in order to acquire the half-built Soviet Carrier Varyag from a Ukrainian Shipyard, the Chinese Government propped up a PLA basketball player named Xu Zengping as an entrepreneur. Zengping then approached the Ukrainian Government for purchasing the Soviet carrier for the purpose of using it as a floating casino.  Through the payment of bribes, he acquired the hull and managed to transfer it from Europe to Dalian naval shipyard located in northeast China. He highlighted that state deception, commercial funding, business fronting, diplomatic manoeuvring and decisive state intervention as the key elements of tactical defence acquisition that involve the joint efforts from both the military and the civilian domains.

Finally, Gen. Shukla brought out that Turkey’s becoming a drone superpower is yet another example of robust CMF.  It is an example which highlights the integrated efforts of the Turkish technology board, armed forces, and scientific and business community. He stated that Selçuk Bayraktar who is the chief technology officer of the famed Turkish technology company Baykar first started out as a student in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Subsequently, the topic of his Masters’ thesis was on the topic “Aggressive Manoeuvring of Unmanned Systems”. After returning to Turkey he developed the Bayraktar TB2 drones which are considered to be a game changer in drone technology. He cited the Turkish President Erdogan’s statement in which he stated that the Bayraktar drone has bestowed Turkey with power projection capabilities to eliminate inimical threats at the source. Gen. Shukla described this as an example of technological prowess being embedded into statecraft. 

Gen. Shukla concluded his keynote address by stating that as far as the evolution of CMF in India is concerned, the foundational metrics are undergoing rapid changes. He underscored that the instrument of force has become much more central to India’s strategic outlook today than in the past. The establishment of the Chief of Defence Staff & Department of Military Affairs (CDS-DMA) was path-breaking as it empowered the defence services to think, articulate, design and drive change in the national security system. He remarked that there have been greater convergences in India’s foreign policy with force and diplomacy becoming complementary to each other. Despite these changes, Gen. Shukla stated that India’s delivery in terms of CMF has been sub-optimal. He said that there are numerous strategic and technological opportunities that have emerged due to the two plus two mechanisms and groupings like QUAD. He emphasised that India would be unable to capitalise on these opportunities unless the domestic technological ecosystem supports CMF. He said that aspects like efficiency, capability, quality and market share have become the new metrics of Indian business ecosystems.  As a result, the defence startup ecosystem in India has also picked up which has been evident from the fact that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has placed orders worth INR 380 crores with three startups. The Indian Army has also placed orders worth INR 300 crores on startups working in the drone domain. However, Gen. Shukla also highlighted the fact that the Indian startup industry working in the civilian domain has achieved more growth as opposed to startups in the military domain. Hence, he expressed concerns that unless the startups in military domain gain rapid acceleration, there is a risk of them petering out.

Gen. Shukla underscored the fact that CMF involves the merging of thought processes between the civil and military domains.  The Ukraine Crisis where small and agile technologies are challenging traditional legacy systems has underscored the importance for integrating technological innovations in defence production. Gen. Shukla ended his keynote address by highlighting the fact that multidisciplinary research is the key for creating a robust ecosystem in India for achieving self-reliance. The CMF is the right metric and instrument to further embellish India’s national power for attaining a position of prominence in the World.

Panels Discussion

First Discussant:  Mr. Sanjay Mitra

Mr. Sanjay Mitra opined that CMF is a great idea, but highly futuristic and therefore India should focus on taking small steps and begin with service integration, civil-military integration and then move on to CMF. He observed that the comparison with China regarding civil-military relations will not help. India should start with transferring the authority for the procurement of military equipment to the armed forces which is currently under the MoD. This step would be the first step towards real integration. The subsequent steps would be moving ahead with jointness, theaterisation and civil-military integration.  According to him, CMF would be a long and challenging process and will not be an immediate solution. While comparing India with China and the US, he said that money is the biggest challenge for India and that while the US and China can invest a lot more in military expenditure and research and development, India is quite far behind them. While concluding, he again placed emphasis on taking small steps to achieve the final goal of CMF.

Second Discussant: Lt. Gen. C.P. Mohanty

Gen. C. P. Mohanty analysed the problem of adopting CMF in India through the prism of behavioural sciences. He highlighted that separation of entities was related to perception which has its roots in India’s colonial past, wherein there was limited interaction even between the navy, army and air force, the three wings of the armed forces. Furthermore, he emphasised that there is a lack of awareness among civilian counterparts about the functioning of military. There is also a lack of mutual trust which is responsible for the creation of a divide and difference of opinion on security matters.

Gen. Mohanty went on to elaborate on these challenges by drawing a comparison with the three stages of an individual’s upbringing. The three stages are birth and social standing; education system and training in the respective institutions and spheres; organisational structure created by the collective human perception that gets strengthened over time. Apart from these, he highlighted that the impact of local influence, which includes the attitudes of senior leadership of the civil and military, is another factor that affects organisational behaviour. According to him, egos lead to undue emphasis on protocol, influencing dissonance or consonance of views. In addition, typecasting of image, which is deeply embedded in the people’s psyche, further encourages a rigid attitude and resistance to change. The various organs of the state such as the armed forces and civil services are also not very aware of the challenges the other services face while discharging their duties. Thus, to address these shortcomings, he suggested some solutions based on the three aforementioned stages.

According to him, the lack of basic awareness about the Indian Armed Forces in schools and educational institutions is a major problem. To bridge this gap, school education should include information on the organisational structure of armed forces, ranks, arms and equipment, and services under the social sciences subject. At a time when the government is revamping the education system, this particular change should also be considered. While discussing the problem of rank structure, he said all the three services have entirely different rank structures and there should be a commonality in rank as in many other countries.

To address the problem of various services, civil and military, being unaware of each other’s challenges, Gen. Mohanty suggested the use of training capsules in different training institutions. These could be conducted by sending teams from defence training institutions to Indian Administrative Service, Indian Police Service and other training academies. There could also be training on civil services in National Defence Academy, Indian Military Academy, etc. He also suggested filling up voids in social interactions in academies to establish a more robust mechanism of understanding each other’s point of view. He further highlighted the importance of tours between military and civilian institutions which can help in bridging the gaps between the two.  

While talking about the organisational interaction, Gen. Mohanty said that at the formation level, these interactions are transactional and more out of necessity and are temporary in nature. There is an absence of common goals and coordination with the civil counterparts is also poor. However, he pointed out this situation is completely different in the states where institutional mechanism is established for interaction, such as unified command in North East and Jammu and Kashmir.

According to him, the major problem lies at service headquarters, which has been adequately covered in Anit Mukherjee’s book The Absent Dialogues.  At this level, he brought out that there is a problem of coordination and to fix this problem there is a need for the service officers to enhance interaction and engage more with their civilian counterparts (Director and Below) who have longer tenures in the office. He also suggested a short training capsule to be structured for the officers who are posted at service headquarters. These capsules should cover the basic understanding of the organisational functioning of civilian counterparts. Similar capsules can be also tailored for civilian counterparts, to inform them about the armed forces. There is a need to enhance the interaction between military and civilian officers. Furthermore, Gen. Mohanty suggested that the recommendation of the think tanks should be implemented by the government.  He concluded by saying that the military leadership also needs to be trusted in the same way the defence services institutions are trusted by the civilian counterparts.  

Third Discussant: AVM Anil Golani

AVM Golani brought out that there are silos within the armed forces and between the armed forces and civil bureaucracy. He explained it by giving the example of the 1965 India-Pakistan War where the political decision was taken to not attack East Pakistan which led to the Indian air force losing lots of its fighter aircrafts. The Indian Armed Forces were also not allowed to attack Peshawar, allowing Pakistan to easily target the Pathankot airfield. Surprisingly, at that time the political leadership allowed Indian Armed Forces to plan their operations according to their convenience with respect to the place and time but this decision was not conveyed in a timely manner to the Indian Air force, Navy and Army. Furthermore, this was again repeated in the case of the Kargil war. He wished that this capitulation on CMF could have started at that time and at a lesser cost.

While addressing the issues associated with CMF, he appreciated the MP-IDSA for its unique fusion at the institute but at the same time, he also questioned its absence in the real world.  To make his point, he gave another example of the Airforce and said that collaboration between the Air Force and Civil Aviation Ministry has not been productive, whether it’s about manning or Crash Fire Tender. Furthermore, to ensure the national interest all the institutions should work together.  He observed that India created Defence Space Agency, however, the results of fusion between Indian Space Research Organisation and the Department of Space are not up to expectations. He concluded by emphasising the need to put words into actions.

Important points made during Q&A session

  • Earlier R&D was the domain of Defence Research and Development Organisation. However, gradually, private industries have also entered into this domain to explore untapped opportunities.
  • Due to the absence of a guarantee, the private players are not willing to invest a lot in R&D. There is a need for more investment by the government in the R&D sector run by the private players.
  • Apprehensions regarding the CMF are there before the change has taken place. Once the change happens, it will be useful for everyone.

The panel discussion was followed by a lively Q&A session and a vote of thanks by Deputy Director-General, Maj. Gen.(Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) who stressed that self-reliance in developing cutting-edge military technology will hinge on the aggregation of India's civil, military, industry and academia. 

Key Takeaways

  • Qualitative aggregation of resources and capacities from both the civil and military domains is the cornerstone of CMF.
  • CMF is a complex concept that consists of numerous layers and nuances.
  • The granite walls that exist between the silos of civil and military institutions must be collapsed in order to allow the seamless infusion of talent and capacities in the military, civil services, scientific community, academia, industries, domain experts, technologists and entrepreneurs.
  • The CMF is the right metric and instrument to further embellish India’s national power for attaining a position of prominence in the World.
  • Self-reliance in developing cutting-edge military technology will hinge on the aggregation of India's civil, military, industry and academia. 

Report Prepared by Mr. R. Vignesh, Research Analyst, Military Centre, and Dr. Jatin Kumar, Research Analyst, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.

Click for LIVE STREAMING

Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Takeaways from Tokyo Summit, 2022: Quad ‘a force for good’ May 30, 2022 1000 hrs Monday Morning Meeting

Cmde. Abhay K. Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow, MP-IDSA spoke on the topic “Takeaways from Tokyo Summit, 2022: Quad ‘a force for good’ ” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 30 May 2022. The session was chaired by Ms. Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow and was attended by  Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, senior scholars & research analysts of MP-IDSA.

Executive Summary

In the recently concluded Quad Summit held in Tokyo, Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi had described Quad as a force of good in terms of creating a positive vision for the nation. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) that was unveiled a day before the summit is a major economic effort by the Quad nations to address the trade deficit among the nations in the region. The IPEF is not a traditional Free Trade Agreement (FTA) but a trade facilitation framework to formulate a common set of rules and standards for the member states. The IPEF is bound to bring coherence to rules and procedures which can effectively reduce non-tariff barriers and facilitate a smooth flow of trade. Although the Quad never really laid emphasis on hard security issues, the latest joint statement has made Quad’s security concerns with China very upfront if not explicit.

The most important highlight of the summit was the consensus among the four leaders on the view that the unilateral change of the status quo through the use of force will not be tolerated in the Indo-Pacific or in any other region. In the joint statement, the four nations have signaled their political consensus and commitment for working together in critical areas such as infrastructure development, counterterrorism, climate change, COVID Pandemic, space cooperation, cyber security and emerging technologies. The joint statement also made an oblique reference to China by denouncing its recent actions including threatening to unilaterally change the status quo in the region. Also, the Quad nations have welcomed the interest of the European Union in the Indo-Pacific.

Detailed Report



Ms. Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA commenced the session by making her observations on the recently concluded Quad Summit held in Tokyo, where she highlighted Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement made during the meeting in which he described the Quad as ‘a force for good’. She further went on to underscore the problem solving approach taken up by the Quad leaders and the focus on building robust cooperation for facilitating engagement despite the substantial differences among them regarding the ongoing Ukraine Conflict. Flagging certain key aspects of Quad,   Ms. Pandalai reiterated that although the Quad never really laid emphasis on hard security issues, the latest joint statement has made Quad’s security concerns with China very upfront if not explicit. In terms of deliverables, she stated the Quad debt management research portal and the pledge of about fifty billion dollars for infrastructure development in the region are the key outcomes of the Quad summit. With these opening remarks, Ms. Pandalai invited Cmde. Abhay Singh to give his presentation.

Cmde. Abhay K. Singh, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, began his presentation by making an assessment of the IPEF that was unveiled a day before the Quad Summit in Tokyo. As a US-led initiative to counter the growing economic and strategic influence in the region, Cmde. Singh described the IPEF as an effort by the US to address the trade deficit among the Indo-Pacific nations. He further traced the evolution of the IPEF from when the initiative was first announced in October 2021 at the East Asia Summit, where President Joe Biden in his virtual address, announced the idea of the IPEF. Again in February 2022 the IPEF was mentioned when the Biden Administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy was unveiled. Cmde. Singh went on to compare IPEF with other regional economic frameworks such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). IPEF consists of thirteen member states including nations from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the South Pacific constituting forty percent of global GDP.

Describing the IPEF as not a traditional Free Trade Agreement (FTA), Cmde. Singh explained that the initiative is rather a trade facilitation framework to formulate a common set of rules and standards for the member states. Citing the four pillars of IPEF that encompass the development of digital trade, resilient supply chains, green energy and corruption-free trade, Cmde. Singh stated that despite several briefings and factsheets there has been a lack of clarity regarding the individual obligations of the member states toward these areas. Taking stock of the US role in leading the negotiation for all four pillars of IPEF, he brought out the argument that the economic framework cannot effectively match China without binding rules and assurance for market access. He mentioned some of the criticism about IPEF that point to the lack of strategic clarity and describes it as a laundry list of American demands. Cmde. Singh also highlighted some of the positive comments that regard IPEF as a pragmatic approach for building domestic consensus in the US, in line with Biden’s foreign policy focused on protecting the interests of the American middle class. He stated that the IPEF is bound to bring coherence in rules and procedures by effectively reducing non-tariff barriers and facilitating a smooth flow of trade.

Cmde. Singh noted that during the Quad Summit each of the four leaders’ remarks had signaled their priorities and the expectation from the Quad which are as follows:

  • Prime Minister Fumio Kishida:  In his statement, strongly condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and underscored that the Quad must never allow such actions to unfold in the Indo-Pacific region. The statement also signaled that the Quad shall collaborate with other regional players to oppose any attempts to unilaterally change the status quo in the region.
  • Prime Minister Anthony Albanese: The newly elected Australian Prime Minister in his statement made it very clear that despite the change in leadership, Australia’s commitment to Quad and ASEAN centrality shall not change. He announced his new Government’s priority will seamlessly align with the Quad’s agenda in the areas of taking action against climate change and at the same time building a stronger and resilient Indo-Pacific region.
  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi: He reiterated the importance and influence of Quad on the global stage. He also underscored Quad’s constructivist agenda and laid emphasis on creating an image of the grouping as ‘a force for good’.
  • President Joe Biden: Strongly denouncing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Biden described the ongoing crisis as not only a European issue but a global issue. He also brought out that the War in Ukraine has severely aggravated the global food crisis.

The consensus among the four leaders on the view that the unilateral change of the status quo through the use of force will not be tolerated in the Indo-Pacific or in any other region was described by Cmde. Singh as the key highlight of Quad Summit. Making the assessment of the joint statement, Cmde. Singh inferred that the key focus of the Quad nations was on delivering the agendas that were agreed upon during the previous iterations of the summit. He also noted that through the joint statement the four nations have signaled their political consensus and commitment to work together for creating tangible benefits in the following areas:

  • EU’s Indo-Pacific Strategy: The Quad nations have welcomed the interest of the European Union in the Indo-Pacific.
  • Chinese Expansionism: The joint statement also made an oblique reference to China by denouncing its recent actions including threatening to unilaterally change the status quo in the region, disrupting fishing and militarisation of islands in the South China Sea and the East China Sea.
  • Terrorism: On terrorism, the joint statement unequivocally condemned acts of terrorism including the 26/11 and Pathankot attacks in India. It denounced the use of terrorism as a proxy and reiterated the demand that Afghan soil shall not be used as a breeding ground for terrorism.
  • Infrastructure Development: The Joint Statement expressed resolve to synchronise Quad’s infrastructure development in accordance with the needs of ASEAN Nations.
  • COVID Pandemic:  The statement also stressed on Quad’s commitment to fighting against COVID and future pandemics by making a contribution of 5.2 billion dollars to COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC) programme.
  • Climate Change: The launch of the Quad Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Package (Q-CHAMP) signifies the grouping’s collective resolve to fight against climate change. 
  • Cyber Security: The statement focused on developing partnerships among the four nations for capacity building in order to manage emerging cyber security threats. The statement also brought out that the first-ever Quad Cybersecurity Day will be initiated soon.
  • Critical and Emerging Technologies: The Quad nations also resolved to leverage each other’s strengths for the development of critical technologies. However, the statement also expressed concerns about securing a reliable supply chain for this purpose.
  • Track Five Diplomacy: The statement announced the launch of the Quad Fellowship programme, in which nearly a hundred fellowships would be offered to students and researchers from the four nations for pursuing studies and research in the areas of science and technology.
  • Space Cooperation: The statement announced the launch of the Quad satellite data portal for enabling public access of member countries for deriving data from earth observation satellites. This portal will enhance Quad monitoring and coordination capabilities in the areas of climate change, Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response (HADR) and sustainable use of marine resources.
  • Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA): The Indo-Pacific Partnership for MDA (IPPMDA) for combating IUU fishing has been launched. The IPPMDA will work in consultation and coordination with the various maritime information fusion centres in the Indo-Pacific region. The cooperation in MDA among the Quad nations is aimed at making the seas more transparent and upholding vigil by making optimum utilisation of surveillance assets in the region.

Pointing out certain shortcomings in the Quad, Cmde. Singh stated that despite President Biden reiterating that his policy is sharply focused on managing China, there has been criticism that the Quad remains short on American fiscal and policy support. He stated that it has become clear that the Quad nations along with other nations of the region must supplement the shortcomings of the US. He brought out that the election of the Labor Government in Australia that has been known to be sympathetic towards China’s rise, may affect the nation’s future commitment towards Quad, despite the assurances of Mr. Anthony Albanese. On India, he stated that Russia not being explicitly mentioned in the Joint Statement is mainly due to India’s sensitivity and this signifies major divergence between India and the rest of the Quad nations.  Cmde. Singh concluded his presentation by describing Japan as the most consistent nation among the Quad, as its core agenda remains unchanged, despite the change of three consecutive Prime Ministers.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, stated that the first concrete activity carried out by the Quad towards enhancing security cooperation was during a counterterrorism tabletop exercise conducted in New Delhi in November 2019. Subsequently, in 2021 the Quad attempted to buildup on the 2019 counterterrorism exercise by expanding it into a strategic gaming exercise which is still in progress. He also brought out that the Quad could be expanded to include some ASEAN nations that are situated at the center of the Indo-Pacific in order to uphold ‘ASEAN centrality’.  

During the Q&A Session, responding to a question by Gen. Bakshi on the hard security issues being underplayed in Quad, Cmde. Singh stated that the security component of the Quad has deliberately been underplayed, as the Quad does want to be seen as an ‘Asian NATO’ as described by some nations. He said that the Malabar naval exercise of the Quad Navies has progressively evolved to undertake complex tactical operations and if the need arises the navies of the four nations can spontaneously undertake coordinated security operations. Responding to a question on whether the Quad could potentially replace the plethora of regional organisations operating in the region, Cmde. Singh stated that the multiple regional organisations are indeed necessary to build consensus and encourage dialogue among the various nations in the Indo-Pacific, as each forum will have its own convergences and divergences.

Key Takeaways:

  • The IPEF is not a traditional Free Trade Agreement (FTA) but a trade facilitation framework to formulate a common set of rules and standards for member states.
  • The IPEF is bound to bring coherence to rules and procedures. It can effectively reduce non-tariff barriers and facilitate a smooth flow of trade.
  • The joint statement made the Quad’s security concerns over China very upfront if not explicit.
  • The statement also reflected on the political consensus and commitment of the Quad nations to work together in the critical areas of infrastructure development, counterterrorism, climate change, COVID Pandemic, space cooperation, cyber security and emerging technologies.
  • Report prepared by Dr R. Vignesh, Research Analyst, Military Affairs Centre, MP-IDSA
Military Affairs
Africa Day Webinar on “The African Union @ 20: Addressing Peace & Security Challenges” May 24, 2022 1530 hrs Other

The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) in collaboration with the African Studies Association of India (ASA India) organised an Africa Day Webinar on the theme “The AU @ 20: Addressing Peace and Security Challenges” on 24 May 2022 at 1530 hours IST. The welcome remarks were delivered by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and the special remarks were delivered by H.E. Mr. Alem Tsehaye Woldemariam, Ambassador of Eritrea to India and Dean of Diplomatic Corps, India. The introductory remarks were given by Professor Ajay Dubey. Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, chaired the panel discussion. The panelists included Professor Eghosa E. Osaghae, Ms. Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, Dr. Alex Vines OBE and Ms. Ruchita Beri. The concluding remarks were delivered by Ambassador Shashank. Ms. Sindhu Dinesh proposed the vote of thanks. The webinar was attended by MP-IDSA scholars and guest attendees including African Heads of Missions in India, officials from the Ministry of Defence and members of various think tanks and universities.

Executive Summary

The webinar brought out perceptive inputs on the theme “The AU @ 20: Addressing Peace and Security Challenges”. Ambassadors, eminent scholars and experts from India and Africa served on the panel. As the African Union (AU) celebrates its 20th anniversary, its achievements in building regional consensus and efforts in transforming the continent were acknowledged. The peace and security challenges facing the African continent are diverse and complex. The AU faces several hurdles in dealing with these challenges. It must be recognised that foreign intervention is proving to be counter-productive and African countries must rely on themselves to solve the problems.

Some speakers emphasised the continent's pressing governance and security issues. Under the auspices of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have engaged in violent conflicts using a variety of non-military tools. However, rising conflicts in Africa have demonstrated that APSA has failed to fulfil its mandate after more than a decade of existence. Many speakers further emphasised the significance of "African solutions for African problems".

Another theme of the webinar was the importance of India-Africa relations and the necessity of keeping the pan-African tier of engagement. There was a strong push for South-South cooperation, particularly in areas such as clean technology, climate-resilient agriculture, and counter-terrorism cooperation. It was underscored that institutionalised mechanisms like the India-Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) and India-Africa Defence Dialogue (IADD) were important in promoting India-Africa ties and must be regularised.

Detailed Report

Inaugural Session

The webinar began with welcome remarks by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy (Director General, MP-IDSA). At the outset, he acknowledged the distinguished speakers and guests for their presence, the collaborative partner ASA India for jointly organising the webinar and extended a warm welcome to all the participants. Sharing that MP-IDSA has been organising an Africa Day Round Table for the last six years to commemorate Africa Day, he stated these dialogues had provided well-established platforms to deliberate on India-Africa relations. He remarked that the increased high-level visits to African nations over the last eight years and the initiatives taken under the dynamic leadership of Prime Minister Modi were aimed at transforming India’s ties with Africa. Ambassador Chinoy shed light on the historically close ties and maritime links of India and Africa, the role of diaspora, India’s steadfast support for Africa’s liberation from colonialism and apartheid, and the mutual support between the two in their struggle to attain independence.

Stating that the theme of the webinar was timely and of great interest, he recognised the commendable achievements of the AU in resolving regional conflicts and promoting sustainable development. Mentioning the impact of the Ukraine crisis on food and energy security amidst the challenge of a pandemic, Ambassador Chinoy assessed that the three foremost important objectives for African nations will be economic recovery, healthcare and food security. Stating that security arrangements in Europe and the multilateral system had failed to deliver peace and security, he appreciated the AU’s efforts in building regional consensus.

Ambassador Chinoy underscored the importance attached to institutionalised mechanisms like IAFS and IADD in promoting India-Africa ties. Stating that India is committed to being a reliable development partner for Africa, he highlighted India’s Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) Programme, timely medical and humanitarian assistance to African countries during the pandemic, India’s contribution to the United Nations Peacekeeping (UNPK) operations in Africa and anti-piracy operations in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), and shared maritime interests in developing a blue economy. He opined that strong India-Africa ties would strengthen multipolarity and expressed optimism that the webinar discussion would help build a better future together.

Professor Ajay Dubey (Rector, Jawaharlal Nehru University and Secretary General, ASA India) acknowledged the guests and participants on behalf of ASA India and thanked MP-IDSA for partnering with them. Underscoring that Africa is an important continent for India, he shed light on the old and diverse academic engagements in Indian universities on African studies. Stating that the AU celebrating 20 years is a culmination of the African dream of Pan-Africanism, he spoke about the initial formation of the organisation in 2002 and its predecessor the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) established in 1963. Remarking that peace and security were important objectives that African people have decided for themselves, Professor Dubey opined that in its approach to peace and security, the AU had learnt from organisations like South African Development Community (SADC) and others with similar objectives.

Professor Dubey assessed that the major challenges for AU in addressing peace and security include terrorism in all its forms, internal terrorism, cross-border terrorism, religious terrorism and violent extremism; democratic backsliding which is giving rise to conflicts; threats to maritime security; challenges emanating from underdevelopment which include human security and climate security issues besides the pandemic and other common problems facing the continent. He agreed with Ambassador Chinoy that models like the IAFS and IADD were important and need to be continued.

H.E. Mr. Alem Tsehaye Woldemariam (Ambassador of Eritrea to India and Dean of Diplomatic Corps, India) began his special remarks by thanking the webinar organisers and appreciated India’s steady commitment to developing India-Africa relations which he has witnessed during his tenure in India. He remarked that the webinar theme was timely and of critical importance to the African continent. Sharing the multifaceted peace and security challenges facing Africa that range from inter-state and intra-state political instability to foreign interventions and unemployment, he stated that the problems facing Africa were as diverse as its countries and people. He identified that there was no single or quick solution to these problems and opined that the contemporary history of Africa proves that external intervention was instead prolonging their problems. He argued that the best if not the only solution was for African countries to solve their problems themselves.

Ambassador Woldemariam shed light on several other challenges like the arbitrary boundary demarcation by the colonisers which has led to separatist movements intertwined with terrorist activities. He underscored that Africa which accounts for 41 per cent of ISIS attacks has become the main target of international terrorism. He assessed that the economic cost of terrorism which has surged to USD 171 billion could have instead been invested in the continent’s development and betterment of livelihood. Ambassador Woldemariam strongly opined that multipronged and collective efforts would help address the root causes of conflict in Africa and achieve socio-economic development. He added that strong government, sound policy, efficient institutions and corruption-free civil service were also among the many requirements along with strengthening cooperation between regional and sub-regional organisations in Africa.

Ambassador Woldemariam stated that all these efforts must be supported at the national and regional levels through institution building based on principles of partnership. Recognising AU’s efforts in transforming the continent, he argued that one of its hurdles was excessive dependence on foreign financial assistance which comes with conditions that compromise policy independence. Ambassador Woldemariam underscored that the spirit of South-South Cooperation should be bolstered to solve common problems and stated that India was at the heart of this framework. He concluded by calling for unconditional cooperation between India and Africa and expressed thanks to the Government of India for its support to African countries.

Panel Discussion

The panel discussion was chaired by Ambassador Anil Trigunayat (Former Ambassador of India to Libya and Distinguished Fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF)). He started the discussion by stating that we frequently think of Africa as a single entity, despite the fact that this identity is fading. He continued by saying that Africa is a kaleidoscope of culture, civilization, colours, and beauty that one should see and experience.

Ambassador Trigunayat mentioned how the pandemic has affected the African continent and how India has tried its best to be a part of Africa's and AU's journey, whether it is peacekeeping, capacity building, or providing infrastructural assistance at all times. He underscored that Prime Minister Modi's event in Kampala provided a clear vision for strengthening cooperation and mutual capacities in combating terrorism and extremism across the continent.

Professor Eghosa E. Osaghae (Director General, Nigeria Institute for International Affairs, Nigeria) began by indicating that AU's principal goals have shifted from political integration to economic integration, the prosperity of African people, and the need for peace and security in the continent. In terms of addressing peace and security concerns, the first thing that has become increasingly evident is that peace and security challenges in Africa must be viewed holistically. As the world deals with the repercussions of the Ukraine crisis, it is clear that whatever occurs in one part of the world influences what happens in other areas of the world.

Professor Osaghae also briefly noted the AU's peace and security architecture's admirable achievements, particularly the actions of the "Panel of the Wise" since its inception. African peace and security architecture also envisions a strong partnership between the EU and regional organisations such as SADC in South Africa and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in West Africa, among others. It has been more challenging than ever before, but Africa today recognises that terrorism, insurgency, and human rights violations are not merely African issues, but also significant global concerns. 

In his final remarks, Professor Osaghae emphasised that Africa would do well to handle what it is capable of doing, but Africa does better when it can collaborate with global players. He added that India has been a strong supporter of Africa, and that as the AU celebrates its 20th anniversary, partners like India will provide even more motivation to move forward.

Ms. Elizabeth Sidiropoulos (Chief Executive Officer of the South African Institute of International Affairs, South Africa) opened her presentation by expressing concern that the current geopolitical framework may exacerbate some of Africa's peace and security challenges. She explored institutional realignment, increased civil society engagement, operational efficacy, and financial independence in her speech.  The lack of good governance has limited the government's authority to function, notably in preserving peace and security, as well as fostering economic growth and wealth creation, which are required to combat poverty and foster human development in the case of many African countries. Ms. Sidiropoulos went on to argue that rather than focusing primarily on hard-core peace and security concerns, African communities, citizens, and African leaders should prioritise good governance.

Ms. Sidiropoulos concluded by referring to the Afrobarometer survey, which stated that unemployment remains one of the most pressing issues that Africans want their governments to address. As per the survey results, South Africans are dissatisfied with the government's handling of income disparities, price stability, and the economy in general. She emphasised that perceptions towards the AU are shifting, and the fundamental problem that African countries must tackle on their own is a lack of accountability in governance mechanisms.

Dr. Alex Vines OBE (Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House, UK) began on a positive note by emphasising some of the AU's recent gains in terms of peace and security. He did, however, argue that there has been a sense of urgency to reform, evaluate, and rethink as the African continent transforms. He used the example of how standby forces do not always meet the issues that continental security necessitates. The Lake Chad basin countries' Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) to collaborate against Boko Haram insurgents has been plagued with crises due to varying commitment to the force, budget issues, and fragmented planning.

Dr. Vines reiterated that there have been areas of the AU vision that have been less impressive over the previous 20 years, notably on the legislative side. Traditional and technological organs have remained poor. The Pan-African Parliament and the Economic, Social, and Cultural Council are essentially advisory organisations with hardly any power. The AU's Peace and Security Council is faced with tough choices. He stated that the process of reforming the organisation, led by Rwandan President Paul Kagame, had created discord among the Commission's leaders. For over five years, the procedure paralysed employees and damaged the AU Commission. In his closing remarks, he cited the Afro-barometer survey mentioned by Ms. Sidiropoulos, which stated Africans are frustrated that jobs are not being created on the continent and that 35 per cent of citizens regard the AU as completely irrelevant to their daily lives. This poses a significant challenge for the AU to become more people-centered, serving the needs of its own people.

Ms. Ruchita Beri (Senior Associate and Coordinator, Africa, LAC, and UN Centre, MP-IDSA) shared her thoughts on three themes. She began by discussing the AU's recent achievements in terms of leadership in addressing the COVID-19 Pandemic, peaceful elections, and so forth. She also considered the significant hurdles that AU continues to face, such as, rise in conflict, unconstitutional changes of government and terrorism. Recognising the challenges that post-Covid-19 peacebuilding faces, she focused on how the AU might promote complementarities at the strategic and operational levels throughout the peace–development nexus.

Ms. Beri drew attention to the growing threat of terrorism and the need for AU to work on concentrated and coordinated efforts to address the fundamental root causes of terrorism and violent extremism. She also discussed the continent's food security concerns and why the AU should prioritise agriculture and food security as the foundation for economic development and progress. She concluded her speech by bringing up India-Africa relations in the current scenario. Ms. Beri proposed the next IAFS should be held soon, in partnership with the AU. She also proposed that India invite African Union to open a mission in India. She hoped that the organisation shall redouble its efforts to confront the challenges.

During the Q/A session, the panellists discussed the rational foundation of the lived values and attitudes entrenched in African ethics by situating them within global ethics and the developing new world order, analysing their validity, and potential contributions. Prof. Osaghae believes that African values are an essential component of global values. Furthermore, global values will be meaningless if there is no African or Asian component - all of those elements work together to generate the composite known as global values.

Concluding Session

Ambassador Shashank (Former Foreign Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India) made the concluding remarks at the webinar. He advised that African countries should consider utilising India's assets to promote their own internal cyber capabilities. He also recommended that if small and medium-sized enterprises in India and Africa worked together, they might set up with an aim to give employment, inspiration, and so on to young people, similar to the Nirvana movement that began in India.  Ambassador Shashank suggested that people-to-people exchanges between India and Africa in a range of domains, including professional, legal, business, and grassroots occupations should be prioritised.

The vote of thanks was proposed by Ms. Sindhu Dinesh (Research Analyst, MP-IDSA), after which the webinar concluded.

The report was prepared by Ms. Sindhu Dinesh, Research Analyst, Africa, LAC and UN Centre, MP-IDSA and Ms. Bulbul Prakash, Intern, Africa, LAC and UN Centre, MP-IDSA.

Africa, Latin America, Caribbean & UN Africa
Report of Monday Morning Meeting on “Sanctions on the Russian Defence Industry” May 23, 2022 1000 hrs Monday Morning Meeting

Dr. S. Samuel C. Rajiv, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA spoke on ‘Sanctions on the Russian Defence Industry’ at the Monday Morning meeting, which was held on 23 May 2022 at 10 AM in the auditorium. The session was moderated by Col. Manish Rana, SM, Research Fellow, and Centre Coordinator, Defence Economics and Industry Centre. Director General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and the scholars were in attendance.

Executive Summary

The Russian Federation’s defence industry, apart from different sectors of its economy, has been under various sanctions, primarily by the United States and the European Union, since 2014, in the aftermath of Moscow’s military interventions in Crimea. In the wake of its February 2022 military action in Ukraine, these sanctions have been further strengthened. The sanctions have targeted key Russian arms producing firms, their design bureaus, export organisations and their leadership, as well as the export and import of dual-use products. Given that India is one of the largest importers of Russian arms, it has been impacted by such sanctions. The presentation discussed the different US and EU sanctions, and the implications they have had for countries like Turkey and Indonesia. The discussion also pertained to the impact on India’s current arms procurement programmes from Russia. 

Detailed Report 

Dr. Rajiv began his presentation by noting that the Russian Federation is one of the major global arms exporters. Its share of global arms trade, however, has gradually decreased, from 26 per cent in 2011-15, to 19 per cent in 2017-21 (as per SIPRI data). India has been the largest importer of Russian arms, accounting for nearly 34 per cent of Russia’s exports, during 2011-21, followed by China, at about 13 per cent. As a result of Russia’s military actions in Ukraine since 2014, with the latest being the offensive that began in February 2022, Russia has been subject to sanctions measures by the United States, European Union and other countries.

As part of European Union (EU) sanctions, more than a thousand individuals and 80 entities are subject to travel bans and asset freezes. Sanctions have targeted 70 per cent of Russia’s banking system (as per the EU’s contention) and have closed EU airspace and ports to Russian aircraft and vessels. Stricter export controls on dual-use goods have been imposed, restricting Russia’s access to dual-use technology. They have also banned exports of luxury goods and semi-conductors and imports of key Russian products like steel (with effect from August 2022), coal, cement, among other items. Sanction measures have also targeted Russian ‘dis-information’ actors.

As regards defence and dual-use sectors, business transactions with key companies in the aviation, military and dual use, shipbuilding and machine building sectors are threatened to be sanctioned. It remains to be seen how effectively these sanctions will be implemented. Prior to the latest round of sanctions, the EU arms export and import ban has been in place since July 2014. However, more than EUR 900 million of defence trade took place between EU states and Russia, during 2010-20, with a significant portion of it contributed by countries like France, Germany and Italy. The 2014 ban does not prohibit servicing of spares etc. for contracts entered into prior to August 2014. There has been a reduction, though, in arms export licenses from EU states to Russia, decreasing from 940 in 2013 to 86 in 2020. EU states insist, therefore, that they have been strictly following the sanctions measures.

As for US sanctions, it was pointed out that the Ukraine Freedom Support Act 2014 threatened sanctions against persons facilitating financial transactions with Russian producers, transferors and producers of defence articles. CAATSA, passed in August 2017 as a punitive measure against Russia (and Iran as well as North Korea), threatened sanctions for engaging in ‘significant’ transactions with the defence and intelligence sectors of Russia. Nearly 90 individuals and entities are part of the Sec 231(e), list of Specified Persons, transactions with whom will invite US sanctions. These include major Russian entities like Almaz-Antey Corp., Kalashnikov, NPO Mashinostroyeniya, Admiralty Shipyards, Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG, Aviation Corporation Sukhoi, among others.

CAATSA sanctions have been imposed against China (in August 2018) and Turkey (in December 2020). Turkey has also been removed from the F-35 programme in June 2019, for its S-400 deal, which was announced in December 2017. Apart from Turkey, countries like Indonesia and Morocco, have also backed out of deals/negotiations to buy Russian defence equipment, like Su-35 fighter jets and the S-400. 

India ordered five units of the S-400 in October 2018, one unit of which has been deployed in December 2021 and deliveries of the second unit began in April 2022. Media reports have cited the possibility of sanctions waiver – allowed as per the legislation, and also the possibility of such legislations like the CRUCIAL Act – introduced by Republican Senators last year, which allows for non-imposition of sanctions for a ten-year period, if the President certifies to the Congress that India is continuing to play a critical role on security matters in the Indo-Pacific, as part of the Quad.

The presentation closed by noting that under the shadow of sanctions, US-Russia bilateral trade has continued to be significant, amounting to nearly $37 billion in 2021, with nearly half of it due to US imports of Russian mineral fuels. US exports of Advanced Technology Products (ATP) to Russia, though, have reduced by nearly two-thirds in 2021, from 2014 levels.

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy complimented the speaker for the presentation and pointed out that we have to navigate the evolving situation with extreme caution in the near-to-mid-term, minimising the negative implications flowing out of the punitive measures that the speaker highlighted. Discussion centered on the possibility of escrow accounts, delayed payments, rupee-rouble trade mechanisms, amongst others.

Questions also related to long-term implications on the Russian defence industrial base, the nature of the Russian military effort in the ongoing Ukraine conflict, the need to further study individual country perspectives and responses and nature of Russian transfer of technology of defence items. The Chair, Col. Manish Rana, closed the session by noting that India will have to further strengthen elements of Atmanirbhar Bharat in defence, to overcome the challenges.

This report has been prepared by Mr. Mukesh Kumar, Intern, Defence Economics and Industry Centre, MP-IDSA.

Defence Economics & Industry Defence Industry, Russia

Pages

Top