Interaction with Dr. Andreas Østhagen, from Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI), Oslo, Norway

MP-IDSA organised an interaction with Dr. Andreas Østhagen, Senior Researcher, Arctic, Ocean and Russia programme from Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI), Oslo, Norway on Friday, 19 January 2024. The theme of discussion was 'Emerging Geopolitics in the Arctic'. The Director General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy chaired the Session.

Executive Summary

The session covered issues on the geopolitics of the Arctic, highlighting Norway's role. The Speaker explored various aspects, including resources, routes, and climate change, and discussed emerging players. Emphasis was placed on governance through the Law of the Sea and the Arctic Council, with a mention of India's role in the region.

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy welcomed Dr. Andreas Østhagen and Ms. Filippa Braarud, Second Secretary from the Royal Norwegian Embassy, New Delhi. Amb. Chinoy highlighted that India's connection with the Arctic region dates back to 1920 with the signing of the Spitsbergen Treaty.  He emphasised that India remains concerned regarding the geopolitical developments in the Arctic that have significantly impacted existing cooperation between states. He further mentioned that though the western states have terminated the existing cooperation with Russia, it is important to note that Russia accounts for more than 50 percent of the coastal extent in the region. He mentioned that despite strong western pressures India maintains strong bilateral relations with Russia. He further highlighted that India’s interest in the Arctic remains primarily scientific, unlike China that has larger economic and geostrategic objectives in the region. Ambassador Chinoy pointed out that India’s interests in the Arctic are in tandem with its partners and acknowledged Norway’s role in strengthening India’s scientific research in the Arctic. He mentioned that the Arctic offers multiple opportunities in the near future, for both India and Norway to deepen their bilateral cooperation in the region. 

Dr. Østhagen highlighted that the primary purpose of his visit is to establish connections for future collaboration and gain a deeper understanding of India's viewpoints and interests in the Arctic. He acknowledged India's growing role in the region and on the global stage as a significant power. Examining regional complexities and nuances, he pointed out that the Arctic extends beyond commonly considered factors like climate change, shipping routes, resources, and territory. He mentioned that though climate change and scientific research remain major drivers of states’ engagements in the region, there are several common myths about the Arctic that need to be noted. Dr. Østhagen  mentioned that there are no territorial issues between states in the Arctic and the only issues existing are with regard to extended maritime claims of states in the region. He pointed out that the resources estimates in the Arctic are overexaggerated and extraction of hydrocarbons and other form of minerals from the region is difficult and expensive. Similarly, he mentioned that despite Russia’s emphasis on the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a future shipping route, there will remain several navigational challenges.

In the second part of his presentation Dr. Østhagen highlighted China’s increasing role in the Arctic, and asserted that this remains a cause of concerns for all seven Arctic states. He highlighted that these concerns are further elevated by the Russia-China emerging partnership. He further stressed that Russia’s dependency on China is significantly increasing, that further adds to western countries concerns. He talked about the US-Canada maritime disputes in the region and highlighted the recent US unilateral action of claiming extended continental shelf claims in the Bering Sea and central Arctic Ocean.  Dr. Østhagen mentioned that there are no  maritime issues between the US and Russia in the Arctic. He highlighted that the maritime borders between both these states remain demarcated by the 1990 US-Soviet Agreement.

In the final part of his presentation, Dr. Østhagen gave an overview of the Arctic Council. He mentioned that though the Arctic Council is not the ‘only’ existing mechanism for Arctic governance, Norway’s core concern under its chairship is to keep the Arctic Council alive and going. He highlighted Russia’s nuclear capabilities in the North and mentioned that Russia is undertaking large scale military exercises in the region. Dr. Østhagen emphasised that with the Russia-China emerging threat perception in the Bering Sea, US is taking advanced measures to protect its interests in the region.

Amb. Sujan Chinoy acknowledged China’s emerging geo-economic and geo-strategic interest in the Arctic. He emphasised that as India’s interests in the Polar Regions increase, there is a serious need to focus on developing India’s independent infrastructure capabilities in these regions.

Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha, Senior Fellow and Coordinator, Non- Traditional Security Centre underscored the need to look beyond Arctic politics and recognise the importance of scientific exploration. He asked a question about the future role that Norway intends to play in the Arctic Council under its chairship.

Questions and Comments

Mr. Bipandeep Sharma, Research Analyst enquired about the implications of the United States unilateral action for making extended continental claims in the Arctic. He questioned the validity of these claims and highlighted that US despite not ratifying UNCLOS has made these claims, that could have counter responses from Russia. He also asked a question regarding Norway’s parliamentary decision on opening up of the deep seabed mining in the Arctic and its implications from environmental perspectives.

Dr. Rajorshi Roy, Associate Fellow, enquired about the Arctic States response to transboundary resource management. 

Commandant M. Srivastav, Research Fellow, discussed the prospects of opening up of the  Central Passage in the Arctic. He raised questions regarding the rationale behind creating new shipping routes and its impact on climate change. Additionally, he inquired about Norway's view on China's expanding interest, particularly observed in its second Belt and Road Forum in 2019. He further asked about China’s emerging collaboration with Russia on the North Sea Route (NSR) within China's Silk Road initiative.

Dr. Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow, inquired about Norway's approach to addressing tensions in the Arctic while holding the Arctic Chair. She sought insights into Norway's perception, highlighting the need to sustain cooperation with Russia for the Council's success, alongside considerations of the region's securitisation.

Dr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, raised inquiries regarding the geopolitical complexities affecting countries like Kazakhstan, especially in their attempts to diversify trade routes.

Ms. Filippa Braarud, Second Secretary, Royal Norwegian Embassy, New Delhi, stressed the importance of maintaining Arctic stability. She highlighted the extensive scientific cooperation with India, particularly focusing on the research operations in the Arctic. Ms. Braarud also mentioned the common challenges with regard to the coastal management of Norway and India. Lastly, she emphasised the significance of policy formulation through scientific cooperation in the region.

Dr. Østhagen responded to the comments and questions and stated that the Arctic Council will endure amid tensions. He highlighted Russia's shift toward China due to diversification of Arctic interests. He highlighted that Norway is adopting a pragmatic approach in balancing relations with Russia and NATO. He mentioned that the recent US claim on the extended continental shelf raises concerns. He further elaborated that the collective Western presence driven by the US and UK, is expected to increase military activity in the Arctic in response to Russia's remilitarisation. He concluded by stating that the Arctic experiences short-term tensions but holds long-term strategic investment potential.

The report has been prepared by Ms. Simran Rathore, Research Intern, Non-Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.