Türkiye’s Foreign Policy Under The AKP: Implications and Challenges for India

About The Book

During the first two decades of the twenty-first century, besides the structural factors namely geography, history, politics, international system and the world order, five conjunctural factors dominated Turkish foreign policy behaviour and conduct. These include the Strategic Depth (Stratejik Derinlik) doctrine with ‘zero-problem’ with neighbours embedded in it followed by the Blue Homeland (Mavi Vatan) doctrine focused on enhancing Türkiye’s maritime presence in its immediate neighbourhood and the periphery. Thirdly, and arguably the most important, is the personality of Recep Tayyip Erdogan who as a dominating figure in contemporary Turkish politics has shaped not only the political discourse but foreign policy praxis. Erdogan’s personalised style of interventions has undoubtedly had a profound impact on Ankara’s interactions and engagements with the wider world. Finally, pan-Islamism and neo-Ottomanism are two important drivers in Turkish foreign policy and were visible notably in the Middle East and North Africa region and came into prominence in the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings. In this context, it is pertinent to ask what are Turkish foreign policy ambitions and how do these impact India? Given that Ankara has expanded its presence, or at least is striving to expand it, in the geographically contiguous Southwest Asia region that connects India to the Middle East, the question how Indian foreign policy should view Türkiye becomes even more important. The bilateral challenges between India and Türkiye make it even more pertinent for Indian scholars and policymakers to take a deep and hard look at Türkiye’s foreign policy doctrines and praxis. This book is an attempt in that direction. It systematically analyses the structural and conjunctural factors in Turkish foreign policy and notes that Türkiye’s foreign policy is embedded in a glorified identification of the past, both Ottoman and Kemalist, and in its geographical location as a multi-regional actor. However, the foreign policy ambitions are limited by Türkiye’s economic performance and political sliding. From an Indian viewpoint, the book identifies Pakistan as a limiting factor so far as the bilateral relations are concerned and recommends that New Delhi should use economic leverage and diplomacy to de-hyphenate the Pakistan factor.

About The Author

Md. Muddassir Quamar is Associate Professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies in Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi. Until March 2023, he was Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi. Dr. Quamar specialises in Middle East strategic affairs, political Islam, and India’s relations with the region. Among other issues he is interested in society, politics and foreign policy of Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. Dr. Quamar has authored and edited several books, published research articles in reputed academic journals and contributed chapters in edited volumes on contemporary developments in the Middle East. He serves as Associate Editor of the Contemporary Review of the Middle East (Sage, India) and served as Book Review Editor of Strategic Analysis between July 2018 and March 2023. In 2014-15, he was a Visiting Fellow at the King Faisal Centre for Research and Islamic Studies in Riyadh.

Contents

Acknowledgements

1. Introduction
   
   Foreign Policy Priorities
   
   Türkiye in the Middle East and South Asia
   
   Implications for India
   
   Definition, Rationale and Structure
2. The Glorious Past: Ottoman and Kemalist Consciousness The Ottoman Era
   
   Legal Frameworks
   
   Political Structures
   
   Economic and Trade Links
   
   Society and Culture
   
   War and Peace
   
   End of the Empire
3. The Kemalist Era
   
   Politics and Foreign Policy
   
   Economic and Social Issues
   
   Türkiye and World War II
   
   Conclusion
4. Discovering the Self in a Bipolar and a Unipolar World Foreign Policy during the Cold War
   
   Determinants
   
   External Relations
   
   Post-Cold War Recalibration
   
   Internal Political Churnings
   
   Impact of the External Environment
   
   Adjusting to Global Politics
   
   Middle Power Aspirations
   
   Conclusion
5. Breaking the Mould: Foreign Policy in the Twenty-First Century
   
   Domestic Transitions
   
   Determinants of Foreign Policy under the AKP
   
   Strategic Depth
   
   The Blue Homeland
   
   Erdogan’s Personality
   
   Pan-Islamism
   
   Neo-Ottomanism
   
   External Relations
   
   Relationship with Traditional Partners
   
   Relations with other Global Powers
   
   Neighbourhood and Beyond
   
   Conclusion
   
   Strategic Overreach: Türkiye and MENA
   
   Incentives for a Change in Approach
   
   Economic Imperatives
   
   Political Aspirations
   
   Systemic and Regional Factors
   
   Improvements in Ties, 2002–10
   
   Syria
   
   Iraq
   
   Egypt
   
   The GCC States
   
   Iran
   
   Israel and Palestinians
   
   Jordan, Lebanon and the Maghreb Countries
   
   Arab Spring and Strategic Overreach
   
   Intervention in Syria
   
   Confrontation with Egypt
   
   Involvement in Tunisia
   
   Interference in Libya
   
   Türkiye in Iraq
   
   Challenging Saudi Arabia and Competition with the UAE
   
   Partnership with Qatar
   
   Problems with Iran and Israel
   
   Economic Crisis and Regional Reconciliations
   
   Conclusion
6. Turkish Foreign Policy and Implications for India
   
   Indo–Turkish Relations
   
   Efforts to Improve Political Contacts
   
   Hope for Improved Relations
   
   Derailment and Heightened Tensions
   
   Commercial Ties
   
   Türkiye–Pakistan Relations
   
   Political Convergence
   
   Islamic Solidarity
   
   Geopolitical Stirrings
   
   Commercial Relations
   
   Security and Defence Cooperation
   
   The Turkish Challenge for India
   
   Bilateral Issues: The Pakistan Factor and Kashmir
   
   Regional and Systemic Challenges
   
   Policy Recommendations for India
   
   Conclusion

Index