Central Asia: Democracy, Instability and Strategic Game in Kyrgyzstan

About the Book

Central Asia remains both stable and unpredictable after 20 years of its reemergence. The states here continue to undergo complex nation-building process, which is far from complete, but they firmly remain insulated by Russia and but more increasingly so by China. Only Kyrgyzstan has so far uniquely followed a liberal polity, but this young country had to cope with two revolutions before achieving a parliamentary democracy in 2010. However, the institution of democracy remains weak because of some difficult and intricate internal and external challenges i.e., economic, ethnic, Islamic, narcotic along with convoluted strategic games played by major powers in Kyrgyzstan. It is the only country in the world that hosts military bases of both Russia and the United States. The country retains strong Chinese economic influence. The book is an attempt to provide an overview of political and strategic processes at work in the region by taking the case of Kyrgyzstan – tracing the events erupted since 2005 and more after 2010. It contains aspects of India’s engagement in Kyrgyzstan and throws light on India’s newly launched ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy.

About the Author

Ambassador (Prof) P. Stobdan is a distinguished academician, diplomat, author and national security expert. He is a specialist on Asian affairs covering China, Central Asia and High Asia. He served in Central Asia twice. His last diplomatic assignment was in Bishkek where has served as Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of India to Kyrgyzstan. He also served as Joint Director in the National Security Council and Director/Professor of the Centre for Strategic and Regional Studies at the University of Jammu. He is currently a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies & Analysis, New Delhi.

Contents

Preface

Introduction

1. The Kyrgyz Revolution
   The Tulip Revolution
   The Key Factors
   Not a Genuine Revolution
   The July Election
   The External Dimension
   The Challenges Ahead
   Reverse Tulip Revolution
   New Challenges
2. Ethnic Divide: The Osh Riots
   Strategic Dimension: Role of Russia?
   The Aftermath
   The Kyrgyzstan Inquiry Commission (KIC)
   Kyrgyz Bellicose Response
   The Parliamentary Commission (PC)
   First Anniversary
   Conclusion
3. Parliamentary Democracy
   Kyrgyz Parliament (Zhogorku Kenesh)
   Parliamentary Election
   Formation of New Government
   Role of Roza Otunbayeva
   Regional Impact
   Conclusion
4. First Democratic Presidential Election
   The Election
   New History
   Atambayev’s Agenda
   Russia: Main Strategic Partner
   US Airbase: Dangerous Target for Iranian Missiles
   Challenges Ahead
   Conclusion
5. Islamic Extremism
   Extremism and Politics
   Islamisation of Kyrgyzstan
6. National Security Concept
   External Threats
   Internal Threats
7. Politics of Hydropower
   Multilateral Mechanisms
   Geo-Political Issues
   Kambar-Ata Projects
   CASA 1000 (Central Asia-South Asia): Exploring Export Potentials
   Who will Control CASA 1000?
8. External Relations
   Kazakhstan
   Uzbekistan
   Tajikistan
   Pakistan
   Iran
9. Russian Interests in Kyrgyzstan
   Kambar-Ata
   Joint Russian Military Base (JRMB)
   Kyrgyz Debts to Russia
   Transnational Corporation Dastan OJSC
   The post-2014 Security Scenario
   10. Kyrgyz-US Relations: Politics of Airbase
   Politics and Diplomacy over Manas Transit Centre
   New Challenge for the US
   Military Base to Fuel Supply Contract
   Fresh Diplomacy over Transit Centre
   Beyond the Transit Centre
   Profiting from the Drawdown
10. The Chinese Forays
    Railway Connectivity
    Energy Deals
    Selling Soft Power
    Security Nexus
    Kyrgyz Resentment
    China-Eurasia Trade Initiative
    Conclusion
11. The Indo-Kyrgyz Relations
    Historical Relations
    Contemporary Relations
    Institutional Relations
    Trade
    Investments
    Line of Credit
    Assistance Programmes
    Disaster Relief and Humanitarian Aid
    Potato Processing Plant
    Technical Cooperation
    Civil Aviation
    Education and Culture
    Defence Cooperation
    The Kyrgyz-India Mountain Bio-Medical Research Centre (KIMBMRC)
    Ties with Kyrgyz Defence Industry
    ULAN Open Joint-Stock Company
    Future Prospects
12. India’s “Connect Central Asia” Policy

Conclusion: Emerging Trends in Central Asia

Annexures
1. Kyrgyzstan Inquiry Commission (KIC)
2. Kyrgyz Response to Story by the Economist
3. Non Paper : The Candidature of the Kyrgyz Republic for a Non-permanent Seat of the United Nations Security Council
4. Blake’s Testimony on U.S. Engagement in Central Asia
5. Keynote address by MOS Shri E. Ahamad at the First India-Central Asia Dialogue

Index