Dr Md. Muddassir Quamar is Associate Fellow at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. Click here for detailed profile.
Tunisia faces serious socio-economic, political and security challenges. There is a degree of political disarray on top of a serious economic problem aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic. A decade after Arab Spring, Tunisia is once again at a crossroads, and its future depends on the ability of Tunisians to find a way out of the crisis, without compromising on the democratic gains made since 2011.
On 25 July 2022, Tunisia voted in favour of a new “controversial” Constitution the drafting process of which had kept the country divided since 2021.1 Tunisia, the only relative success story of the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, has witnessed serious political churn over the year. In a series of decisions, described as “unconstitutional” by political parties across the spectrum, President Kais Saied, who was elected in October 2019 in a landslide victory, dissolved the elected parliament, dismissed the government, and disbanded the highest judicial body. The president, on the contrary, described these moves as mandated by the Constitution due to the “unprecedented” and “extraordinary crisis” faced by the country. Consequently, Saied has taken control of all branches of government, accumulating power in his hands, and has even partially suspended the Constitution, raising fears of democratic backsliding.2 In October 2021, the president appointed a new technocratic government led by Najla Bouden, a former university professor and an official in the Tunisian Ministry of Higher Education, who became the first woman prime minister of not only Tunisia but of any Arab country.3
The challenges facing Tunisia are multifaceted. In the run-up to the 2019 parliamentary and presidential elections, Tunisia witnessed a series of street protests, reminiscent of the 2011 uprising, against rampant corruption, and for better services. Tunisians are also angry due to the monopolisation of power among the few political elites who emerged from the events of 2011. The Islamist Ennahda (Renaissance) Party has faced serious erosion in support and was reduced to 52 seats and 19.63 per cent votes in the 2019 parliamentary elections.4 The coalition governments formed since 2014, have failed to deliver on the primary demands of good governance and economic prosperity. It is because of these problems that the “power grab" by President Saied has evoked mixed reactions from the people, with protestors coming out both in support and opposition of the actions.5 The upheavals have opened up the question about the political and economic futures of Tunisia.
End of Tunisian Exceptionalism?
The most important question is related to political instability and democratic backsliding. As the majority of the Arab countries affected by the 2011 uprisings devolved into political crises, civil wars, and conflicts, or reverted to authoritarian regimes, Tunisia continued on the path of democratisation despite facing serious political, economic, and security challenges. The early political transition in Tunisia was steered by an elected National Constituent Assembly (NCA) that adopted a new constitution on 26 January 2014.6 The democratic process was strengthened due to the regular free and fair presidential and parliamentary elections carving an inclusive political system.7 The commitment of the Tunisian leaders to stick to the electoral process, and uphold the sanctity of the Assembly of Representatives of the People (Parliament) and the Constitution contributed to the democratisation. This, in turn, gave credence to the idea of Tunisian ‘exceptionalism’ to the otherwise opposing trend of strengthening authoritarian regimes or outbreak of civil wars. Although voices from within Tunisia underlined the challenges facing the country,8 the moniker of Tunisian exceptionalism continued to be widely used among international observers and media.
The political situation took a dramatic turn on 25 July 2021 when President Saied dismissed the government of Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and suspended the parliament.9 President Saied invoked emergency provisions enshrined in Article 80 of the 2014 Constitution underlining the “exceptional circumstances” facing the Republic.10 The suspension of the parliament was extended indefinitely on 24 August, and on 13 December, the president announced that the Assembly will remain suspended until the next elections to be held in December 2022.11 Eventually, the parliament was dissolved on 30 March 2022, after 124 of the 217 members of the suspended Assembly held an online meeting condemning the declaration of emergency by the president as an unconstitutional attempt at grabbing power.12 In September 2021, President Saied had issued a decree overtaking executive and legislative powers from the elected Assembly, and also partly suspended the 2014 Constitution, arguing that the political process in Tunisia needs a course correction.13 In February 2022, the president issued a fresh decree replacing the Supreme Judicial Council with a provisional body appointed by him, leading to fears that the president has accumulated executive, legislative, and judicial powers in his hands.14
Economic Woes
The moves by President Saied, howsoever abrupt, were not entirely surprising as they came after months of widespread public unrest against mounting economic woes, and the inability of the elected representative to bring about the much-needed economic turnaround. Tunisia has been struggling with economic woes for a long; notably, the unrest in 2011, sparked by the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, known in Tunisia as the Dignity Revolution (Thawarat al-Karama), was primarily caused by the precipitating economic crisis. Despite the country adhering to a democratic political process, the economic problems were far from resolved. If at all, in the subsequent years, the financial and economic troubles multiplied due to a variety of factors including financial mismanagement, rampant corruption, and a deteriorating security situation.15
In 2020, the economic problems in the picturesque North African country became graver due to the outbreak of COVID-19. The pandemic led to lockdowns and disruptions in economic activities, but most importantly it brought the tourism industry, one of the mainstays of the Tunisian economy, to a halt affecting millions of Tunisians who directly or indirectly depended on it for their livelihood. According to the World Bank, the Tunisian economy contracted by 8.8 percent in 2020, while the rate of unemployment increased to 17.8 percent, and was much higher among youth (15-25 age group) at 40.8 percent and women at 24.9 percent.16 Besides, the number of people forced to live in poverty and categorised as "poor and vulnerable" increased to 20.1 percent.17 The fiscal deficit also increased to 10 percent of the GDP. Tunisia has also been struggling with inflation (6.6 percent in December 2021), and rising food prices creating serious challenges for the poor and vulnerable people.18
A Political Outlier
Kais Saied, a former law professor, was a relatively unknown figure until 2019. He ran as an independent in the October 2019 presidential election and belying all expectations won with a landslide margin getting 72 percent of the popular vote. His upset win was seen as a sign of the mounting discontent, and waning patience, among the young Tunisian voters who want the government to deliver on its economic promises. Saied’s campaign was also carefully crafted projecting him as an outsider who represents the people, and whose only agenda is to work for their welfare.19 However, his lack of experience and harsh criticism of the ruling parties made him an outlier among the political class. This led to the president and the previous government being on a constant path of collision since October 2019. Saied’s proclivity for admonishing the elected lawmakers, and the political parties for their inability to take strong economic measures created serious churn within the government leading to frequent changes. Hence, Tunisia witnessed three prime ministers between October 2019 and July 2021.20 But for Saied, the populist appeal and support from the deep state provided him the stage to grab power, promising far-reaching reforms and course correction.
The Difficult Road Ahead?
Tunisia faces serious socio-economic, political and security challenges. There is a degree of political disarray on top of a serious economic problem aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic. There are also concerns about security due to the growth of radical and terrorist Islamist groups in the Maghreb and Sahel regions. Despite some public support for the president’s actions, there remain concerns about irreversible democratic backsliding, and continuing economic downward spiral. A decade after Arab Spring, Tunisia is once again at a crossroads, and its future depends on the ability of Tunisians to find a way out of the crisis, without compromising on the democratic gains made since 2011.
*Dr. Md. Muddassir Quamar is Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi.
Turmoil in Tunisia
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Tunisia faces serious socio-economic, political and security challenges. There is a degree of political disarray on top of a serious economic problem aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic. A decade after Arab Spring, Tunisia is once again at a crossroads, and its future depends on the ability of Tunisians to find a way out of the crisis, without compromising on the democratic gains made since 2011.
On 25 July 2022, Tunisia voted in favour of a new “controversial” Constitution the drafting process of which had kept the country divided since 2021.1 Tunisia, the only relative success story of the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, has witnessed serious political churn over the year. In a series of decisions, described as “unconstitutional” by political parties across the spectrum, President Kais Saied, who was elected in October 2019 in a landslide victory, dissolved the elected parliament, dismissed the government, and disbanded the highest judicial body. The president, on the contrary, described these moves as mandated by the Constitution due to the “unprecedented” and “extraordinary crisis” faced by the country. Consequently, Saied has taken control of all branches of government, accumulating power in his hands, and has even partially suspended the Constitution, raising fears of democratic backsliding.2 In October 2021, the president appointed a new technocratic government led by Najla Bouden, a former university professor and an official in the Tunisian Ministry of Higher Education, who became the first woman prime minister of not only Tunisia but of any Arab country.3
The challenges facing Tunisia are multifaceted. In the run-up to the 2019 parliamentary and presidential elections, Tunisia witnessed a series of street protests, reminiscent of the 2011 uprising, against rampant corruption, and for better services. Tunisians are also angry due to the monopolisation of power among the few political elites who emerged from the events of 2011. The Islamist Ennahda (Renaissance) Party has faced serious erosion in support and was reduced to 52 seats and 19.63 per cent votes in the 2019 parliamentary elections.4 The coalition governments formed since 2014, have failed to deliver on the primary demands of good governance and economic prosperity. It is because of these problems that the “power grab" by President Saied has evoked mixed reactions from the people, with protestors coming out both in support and opposition of the actions.5 The upheavals have opened up the question about the political and economic futures of Tunisia.
End of Tunisian Exceptionalism?
The most important question is related to political instability and democratic backsliding. As the majority of the Arab countries affected by the 2011 uprisings devolved into political crises, civil wars, and conflicts, or reverted to authoritarian regimes, Tunisia continued on the path of democratisation despite facing serious political, economic, and security challenges. The early political transition in Tunisia was steered by an elected National Constituent Assembly (NCA) that adopted a new constitution on 26 January 2014.6 The democratic process was strengthened due to the regular free and fair presidential and parliamentary elections carving an inclusive political system.7 The commitment of the Tunisian leaders to stick to the electoral process, and uphold the sanctity of the Assembly of Representatives of the People (Parliament) and the Constitution contributed to the democratisation. This, in turn, gave credence to the idea of Tunisian ‘exceptionalism’ to the otherwise opposing trend of strengthening authoritarian regimes or outbreak of civil wars. Although voices from within Tunisia underlined the challenges facing the country,8 the moniker of Tunisian exceptionalism continued to be widely used among international observers and media.
The political situation took a dramatic turn on 25 July 2021 when President Saied dismissed the government of Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and suspended the parliament.9 President Saied invoked emergency provisions enshrined in Article 80 of the 2014 Constitution underlining the “exceptional circumstances” facing the Republic.10 The suspension of the parliament was extended indefinitely on 24 August, and on 13 December, the president announced that the Assembly will remain suspended until the next elections to be held in December 2022.11 Eventually, the parliament was dissolved on 30 March 2022, after 124 of the 217 members of the suspended Assembly held an online meeting condemning the declaration of emergency by the president as an unconstitutional attempt at grabbing power.12 In September 2021, President Saied had issued a decree overtaking executive and legislative powers from the elected Assembly, and also partly suspended the 2014 Constitution, arguing that the political process in Tunisia needs a course correction.13 In February 2022, the president issued a fresh decree replacing the Supreme Judicial Council with a provisional body appointed by him, leading to fears that the president has accumulated executive, legislative, and judicial powers in his hands.14
Economic Woes
The moves by President Saied, howsoever abrupt, were not entirely surprising as they came after months of widespread public unrest against mounting economic woes, and the inability of the elected representative to bring about the much-needed economic turnaround. Tunisia has been struggling with economic woes for a long; notably, the unrest in 2011, sparked by the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, known in Tunisia as the Dignity Revolution (Thawarat al-Karama), was primarily caused by the precipitating economic crisis. Despite the country adhering to a democratic political process, the economic problems were far from resolved. If at all, in the subsequent years, the financial and economic troubles multiplied due to a variety of factors including financial mismanagement, rampant corruption, and a deteriorating security situation.15
In 2020, the economic problems in the picturesque North African country became graver due to the outbreak of COVID-19. The pandemic led to lockdowns and disruptions in economic activities, but most importantly it brought the tourism industry, one of the mainstays of the Tunisian economy, to a halt affecting millions of Tunisians who directly or indirectly depended on it for their livelihood. According to the World Bank, the Tunisian economy contracted by 8.8 percent in 2020, while the rate of unemployment increased to 17.8 percent, and was much higher among youth (15-25 age group) at 40.8 percent and women at 24.9 percent.16 Besides, the number of people forced to live in poverty and categorised as "poor and vulnerable" increased to 20.1 percent.17 The fiscal deficit also increased to 10 percent of the GDP. Tunisia has also been struggling with inflation (6.6 percent in December 2021), and rising food prices creating serious challenges for the poor and vulnerable people.18
A Political Outlier
Kais Saied, a former law professor, was a relatively unknown figure until 2019. He ran as an independent in the October 2019 presidential election and belying all expectations won with a landslide margin getting 72 percent of the popular vote. His upset win was seen as a sign of the mounting discontent, and waning patience, among the young Tunisian voters who want the government to deliver on its economic promises. Saied’s campaign was also carefully crafted projecting him as an outsider who represents the people, and whose only agenda is to work for their welfare.19 However, his lack of experience and harsh criticism of the ruling parties made him an outlier among the political class. This led to the president and the previous government being on a constant path of collision since October 2019. Saied’s proclivity for admonishing the elected lawmakers, and the political parties for their inability to take strong economic measures created serious churn within the government leading to frequent changes. Hence, Tunisia witnessed three prime ministers between October 2019 and July 2021.20 But for Saied, the populist appeal and support from the deep state provided him the stage to grab power, promising far-reaching reforms and course correction.
The Difficult Road Ahead?
Tunisia faces serious socio-economic, political and security challenges. There is a degree of political disarray on top of a serious economic problem aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic. There are also concerns about security due to the growth of radical and terrorist Islamist groups in the Maghreb and Sahel regions. Despite some public support for the president’s actions, there remain concerns about irreversible democratic backsliding, and continuing economic downward spiral. A decade after Arab Spring, Tunisia is once again at a crossroads, and its future depends on the ability of Tunisians to find a way out of the crisis, without compromising on the democratic gains made since 2011.
*Dr. Md. Muddassir Quamar is Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi.
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