Turkey’s unprecedented military action raises two questions: What is the likely impact on its ties with Russia? And, what are the dynamics of a ‘Russia-West’ collaboration over Syria?
Syria is a long-term Russian ally, before and after the demise of the Soviet Union, primarily under the presidency of the Assads, father and son, and provides the only foothold to Russia in the Middle East.
The air crash might prod the US and its allies to seek a political accommodation with Russia on Syria, and a grand coalition might emerge against the IS. But, even such a coalition will take long to dismantle the IS, assuming it were doable.
The Vienna Conference was far from a gathering of powers with common goals. The key powers involved have yet to reach the conclusion that it is in their interest to end the multiple wars raging in Syria.
It is now abundantly clear that Russia has emerged as the most important player in Syria. With the US on the defensive, the coalition that Russia is forging with Iran and Iraq is likely to get stronger.
This is the right time to raise a fundamental question about Obama’s policy towards Syria: Is there a coherent, consistent policy, based on a reasonably accurate assessment of the ground realities in Syria? The answer is a definite no.
Bitter last ditch battles are being fought by Kurdish men and women, including boys and girls barely out of their teens, against the Daesh. Some feel that to succeed, Washington must cooperate with the Syrian Kurds (YPG) as Kurdish fighters alone have proved willing and capable of taking on the Daesh.
