Russia

Russia’s military intervention in Syria – its first beyond its immediate neighbourhood since the end of the Cold War – highlights the significant transformation that its armed forces have gone through.

While a Russia-Turkey rapprochement is driven by their particular national interests, its trajectory and outcome are likely to be shaped by the interplay of several geo-economic and geo-political factors.

The Joint Communique issued by the recent NATO summit, held on July 8-9 in Warsaw, appears to have sown the seeds of a renewed confrontation with Russia.

Turkey’s unprecedented military action raises two questions: What is the likely impact on its ties with Russia? And, what are the dynamics of a ‘Russia-West’ collaboration over Syria?

Syria is a long-term Russian ally, before and after the demise of the Soviet Union, primarily under the presidency of the Assads, father and son, and provides the only foothold to Russia in the Middle East.

The air crash might prod the US and its allies to seek a political accommodation with Russia on Syria, and a grand coalition might emerge against the IS. But, even such a coalition will take long to dismantle the IS, assuming it were doable.

It is now abundantly clear that Russia has emerged as the most important player in Syria. With the US on the defensive, the coalition that Russia is forging with Iran and Iraq is likely to get stronger.

Will the action of Russia make it easier to find a negotiated political agreement on transition among Syrians? Most unlikely.

The central theme of Korybko’s article is to highlight the pivotal importance of Pakistan and the Russian eagerness to build a foundation of political trust with the Pakistani leadership.

A growing Sino-Russian-Pakistani maritime nexus in the IOR poses a challenge to India’s influence in the Indian Ocean and heralds a potential change in the Asian balance of maritime power.