The Poor Prospects of the CTBT Entering Into Force
While Indonesia’s ratification has given a boost to the CTBT, the positions of the other hold-out countries do not show any promise of forward movement.
- Ch. Viyyanna Sastry
- January 09, 2012
While Indonesia’s ratification has given a boost to the CTBT, the positions of the other hold-out countries do not show any promise of forward movement.
Though India has supported and adopted the international legal framework for nuclear security, it has adopted a somewhat unique approach reflecting its policy of cautious activism.
everal measures are being initiated by the international community to secure sensitive materials. Al Qaeda's open interest in acquiring nuclear weapons and the rise of terrorist activity in nuclear-armed Pakistan have triggered a global interest in the need to secure nuclear weapons and materials. In April 2010 President Obama invited some key countries and international organisations in Washington to frame a new regime for nuclear security. The emerging regime includes some older initiatives as well as some new mechanisms, and it must address a number of issues.
Concerned about Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programmes, Australia has blocked the shipment of dual-use equipment to Pakistan on at least three occasions during the past two years.
Prime Minister Gillard's decision to reverse the uranium export policy not just indicates a dramatic shift in Australia’s strategic outlook, but also could endow a decisive fillip to its crisis-hit uranium industry.
Not engaging North Korea is no more seen as an option even as it continue to build its nuclear capabilities.
Pakistan’s ISPR (Inter Services Public Relations) in a press release in April announced the development of the Nasr (Hatf IX) a ‘Short Range Surface to Surface Multi Tube (sic) Ballistic Missile’. According to the release, ‘the missile has been developed to add deterrence value to Pakistan’s Strategic Weapons Development programme at shorter ranges’. The Director General Strategic Plans Division, Lt Gen (Retd) Khalid Kidwai stated that it will help in ‘consolidating Pakistan’s strategic deterrence capability at all levels of the threat spectrum.’
Since the infliction of unacceptable damage may not deter Pakistan from breaking the nuclear taboo, a ‘tit for tat’ strategy in case of lower order nuclear use is worth considering.
Even the otherwise vague 2011 NSG public statement which inserted the NPT angle into the guidelines underlined that the NSG would implement the India-specific exemptions fully.
An anti-nuclear movement in India would remain largely a marginal movement with sporadic spurts depending on the issue at hand, the site in question and the political parties involved.



