With increasing North Korean nuclear and missile threats, and Chinese nuclear force modernisation, the prospects of indigenous nuclear weapons acquisition by Japan and South Korea cannot be ruled out.
How will ballistic missile defences affect nuclear deterrence? This is a question as old as the nuclear revolution but has attained significance in the current security environment wherein nuclear-armed states are increasingly pursuing development and deployment of BMD and their doctrinal integration with strategic forces and postures. Yet, the advent of BMD is bereft of conceptual clarity as their effects on nuclear deterrence is yet to be aptly understood.
The rapid increase in the nuclear forces of China, as revealed in the 2021 Pentagon Report, is a matter of serious concern. Several countries are undertaking exercises to ascertain the strategic and security implications of the feared expansion of the Chinese nuclear stockpile.
The deployment of the DF-41 ballistic missile in China shows that the nature of its nuclear posture is at a critical stage of evolution. On the one hand, the deployment illustrates the achievements in Chinese missile modernisation, which poses a threat to the US deterrence capacity. On other hand, it exposes the limitations in its deployment patterns.
