This article posits that Mohamed Muizzu coming to power, and the shifting tectonics of India First and India Out fits in the template of populism, and politicisation of foreign policy. Deploying the discursive method, the article focuses on Muizzu’s speeches (2023–2025), and argues that the India factor was deployed for the purpose of politicisation and domestic mobilisation. However, I underline that politicisation of foreign policy may not always lead to tangible shifts in foreign policy orientation. This highlights the limits of populist politicisation by Muizzu, especially in the wake of economic crisis, and strategic passivity by China.
Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Male reflected the pragmatic recalibration of bilateral relations recently soured under President Mohamed Muizzu’s ‘India Out’ campaign.
While President Muizzu’s policy towards India is short-sighted and lacks sophistication, India should continue with its measured response given the geo-strategic importance of Maldives.
The report analyses previous deployments of the Indian military outside its borders, including in United Nations Peacekeeping Operations (UNPKO), evacuation of Indian citizens from conflict zones and in active operations like Sri Lanka from 1987–90 and the Maldives in 1988. It then examines the current capacity and trends for executing such operations. Finally, it makes recommendations not only for the Armed Forces but for other relevant agencies as well, such as the Ministries of Defence and External Affairs, the National Security Council and the Cabinet Secretariat.
While the pre-poll environment in Maldives is relatively peaceful, the political fragmentation makes it difficult to project a certain outcome in the upcoming presidential elections.
The recent visit of Sheikh Hasina to the Maldives provided an opportunity to strengthen the bilateral relationship and enhance connectivity, trade and commerce between the two countries. The visit also signified Bangladesh’s growing importance in the international politics.
The domestic politics of the Maldives might significantly change if the position of the MDP government weakens. It might change the flavour of India–Maldives bilateral relationship and will also have an impact on the security environment in the Indian Ocean region.
