Japan

In a strong rebuke to the Kan government, voters deprived the DPJ and its tiny ally of a majority less than a year after the party swept to power.

That the Futenma issue is still a sore subject for the ruling DPJ-led government is reflected in the fact that it has decided not to field a candidate in Okinawa in the upcoming election.

Notwithstanding popular criticism and opposition, the US-Japan security alliance and the presence of USFJ remain vital to Japanese foreign and security policies.

Getting the economy back on track would be Kan’s top most priority. Kan views ties with the US as the core of Japan’s foreign policy, though he also greatly values the relationship with China.

Hatoyama’s downfall was primarily brought about by his failure to fulfil the pre-election promise to relocate the US Marine Corps Air Station in Futenma outside of Okinawa prefecture.

The Cheonan assault has revealed to South Korea that the threat from North Korea is still ominous and capable of delivering unexpected damage.

The one country that has not condemned North Korea’s role in the sinking of the Cheonan is China, which has its own strategic and economic compulsions to back North Korea.

While the DPJ is not averse to the idea of revising the constitution, an unfavourable domestic situation and adverse reactions from neighbours are likely to force the Hatoyama government to limit the exercise to a debate.

The emerging changes in the security calculus within the Korean Peninsula are forcing Japan to revisit its existing position on the nuclear issue. The changing security environment has triggered several debates within Japan on the nuclearisation of the island nation. Although, at present, domestic opinion within Japan is opposed to exercising the nuclear option, there has been a break in the hitherto established taboo to have an open debate on the country's nuclear policy.

President Barack Obama's foreign policy orientation towards East Asia seems to be characterised by continuity rather than change, and is not so very different from that of his predecessors. With Japan and South Korea, Obama is trying to revitalise bilateral alliances. With China, he continues on his predecessor's policy of greater engagement, though he has offered some concessions during his visit to Beijing in November 2009. However, North Korea remains a real and huge challenge for Obama to test his engagement in East Asia.