Going by Netanyahu’s present term, the return of a stronger Right Wing coalition may lead to increased friction in the region and increased Israeli isolation as well.
Since the revolution that toppled Mubarak, Sinai has become a no man’s land where jihadists from Egypt and Gaza as well as local Bedouins have begun to engage in militant activities.
Both sides appear to have wisely avoided a gruelling battle of attrition by opting for a tactical truce - not seemingly on account of a preference for peace but because of a pragmatic recognition of the futility of further conflict.
With reports noting that the Israeli government had authorised the mobilisation of close to 75,000 reservists ahead of a possible ground invasion, international attention is currently focussed on preventing this possibility
While the United States stands committed to Israel, though in a much muted tone, there has been outrage in the region, particularly from Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Tunisia as well as the Arab League.
Political tensions and rivalry between Iran and Israel have cast a shadow over India's bilateral relations with both these countries. While one offers energy security, the other provides military–security capability towards ensuring greater Indian influence in the Middle East. Conscious of their relative advantages and challenges, India has managed to maintain a fine balance in its relations with Iran and Israel.
Just when it seemed that the Arab Spring was almost over and the region was entering a phase of political transition, a flurry of developments in the first week of October 2012 has brought the region back into focus.
Iran, Israel and Turkey have adopted a two pronged approach to deal with the Arab Spring: avoid the negative consequences of the uprisings while at the same time deriving mileage to further their interests in an uncertain neighbourhood.
The primary role of Israel’s current fleet of ‘Dolphins’ is likely to be limited to serve as instruments of ‘signalling’ strategic intent to potential enemies rather than as effective pre-emptive strike or competent second-strike platforms.
Israel is likely to calculate that it would better to wait and use diplomacy to push the major global and regional powers towards some kind of a joint venture against the much feared nuclear designs of Iran.
