India-Pakistan Relations

India’s niche military and intelligence technologies in the field of cyber, space, robotics and jamming can have potential deterrence value and a ‘war minus’ option against Pakistan.

Recent events has exposed the absence of any sort of strategic clarity at the political level and sheer lack of options at the diplomatic level on how India should deal with Pakistan.

There have reportedly been 57 ceasefire violations of the LoC this year, which, according to the MoD, are 80 per cent more than the same period last year, and the number of infiltration attempts have doubled.

Islamabad remains sanguine that as long as it can leverage both cross border terrorism as well as conventional asymmetry by playing the nuclear card, it can easily manage relations with India.

In 1971, India intervened militarily on behalf of Bengalis in the civil war in East Pakistan, dividing the country into two. The prospect of another civil war in Pakistan pitting radical Islamists against the secular but authoritarian military raises questions about the possibility, timing, objective, and nature of another Indian intervention.

Fifteen years after the nuclear tests, it is relevant to examine if deterrence remains weak in South Asia or has consolidated towards greater stability.

Nawaz Sharif’s political comeback has resulted in a fresh sense of optimism within the Indian industry. But it has to be seen whether it will it help in normalizing relations and bringing people together.

Nawaz Sharif’s sentiments for better relationship with India are laudable in spite of being still premature. There are constituencies within Pakistan for whom Kashmir continues to remain the core issue but the bigger challenge is whether Sharif will be able to bring the army on board.

Nawaz Sharif having expressed his intentions of improving relations with India will try to give trade a big push. Yet, one should not expect policy changes related to terrorism targeted at India or its aversion to India’s presence in Afghanistan.

India must develop comprehensive and workable proposals to not just tone down the present Indo-Pak standoff on the glacier and the international attention it may be inviting, but also to ensure reasonable security arrangements against treachery by any third country.