The key to calling Pakistan’s nuclear bluff lies in ensuring that the Indian armed forces are prepared to meet the threat of use of tactical nuclear weapons.
India’s diplomatic offensive launched post the Uri-attacks provided the broader context in which its decision to carry out the surgical strike needs to be seen.
What has emerged over the past two weeks is a well calibrated strategy meant to increase the costs for Pakistan of continuing its policy of supporting cross border terrorism as an instrument of state policy.
The reactions of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan and India indicate a new regional consensus that state sponsored terrorism cannot be dealt with only at the bilateral level.
Through a pragmatic strategy coupled with national will, India should undertake calibrated responses to defeat Pakistan’s proxy war game plan with a view to making its misadventures prohibitively costly and unsustainable.
The advocacy by Pakistani analysts of the Indian disinclination to retaliate massively in response to their use of TNWs on their own soil indicates either a flawed analysis or a bluff that the Indian armed forces would be inclined to call.
India will have to keep a close watch on the developments within PoK and highlight the Pakistani strategy of promoting terror in Kashmir and expose its policies towards both the regions within PoK
India must avoid policy incoherence and inconsistency on PoK that has spanned decades, and navigate a course that helps reshape the domestic as well as external discourses on PoK and pursue Indian claims in a firm, consistent manner.
