India-Pakistan Relations

Whether the media groups succeed in achieving their “Aman ki Asha” is yet to be seen. But if they can sustain their vigorous campaign, the desire for peace in the region may deepen further.

The IPL decision not to choose Pakistani players proved a windfall for South Block, which had failed to convey India’s displeasure and unhappiness to the Pakistan government through the usual diplomatic channels.

The Indo-Pak peace conference concluded with a pledge to uphold democracy, but failed to demonstrate it by limiting its invitation only to representatives from the Kashmir valley and ignoring other stakeholders.

The current change in the Chair of the NCA merely indicates the declining power of President Zardari and does not necessarily mean empowerment of the civilian government.

The Prime Minister in his address to the Combined Commanders conference of the armed forces exhorted the Services to remain alert, due to the unfolding situation in Pakistan. The armed forces would be monitoring the situation closely, because preparedness is a professional obligation and a matter of pride. Thus, if another 26/11 were to occur India’s military options would need to be considered. This commentary reinforces arguments against war as an ‘option’ by looking at the probability of breakdown in deterrence in the event of an India-Pakistan conflict.

My presentation on, “ Use of Force - Possibilities in the Indo – Pak Context ” shall be brief and pointed. I shall make a few salient points, leaving the nitty gritty for discussion, in the interactive session that will follow. I may add that what I present today, is not any institutional position, but merely a personal opinion, albeit one that is steeped quite naturally, in my professional experiences and inclinations. May I also asterisk to the arguments that follow, a few caveats

India is taking its time to reopen the dialogue process with Pakistan that has been suspended since 26/11. The meeting between Indian Prime Minister, Mr. Manmohan Singh and Pakistan’s President, Mr. Asif Ali Zardari, on the sidelines of the SCO meeting in Yekaterinburg in June had opened up possibilities of resumption. However, the joint statement following the one-on-one session between the two prime ministers at Sharm-el-Sheikh ran into rough weather.

Diplomatic and political naivety, coupled with enormous pressure from a clueless America helplessly flailing its superpower muscle in the Af-Pak region, and of course that old disease that all Indian Prime Ministers’ suffer from – a sense of manifest destiny to normalise relations with Pakistan – have led to a Joint Statement by the Indian and Pakistani prime ministers in Sharm-el-Sheikh which is full of concessions, compromises and climb-downs by India.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Gilani and Indian Prime Minster Manmohan Singh signed a joint statement on July 16, 2009 at Sharm el-Sheikh inEgypt on the margins of theNAM summit. In India the statement has been seen as a softening of India’s stand towards Pakistan. In Pakistan it has been seen as a “victory” for Pakistani diplomacy.