India’s recent encounters with Pakistan show surprisingly warm diplomacy, with an open declaration from Islamabad of “mending the trust deficit.” This upswing in relations however comes with no guarantees.
The sense of insecurity created by a regionally preponderant and militarily powerful India is the central catalytic factor that influences the dynamics of Pakistan’s regional security perception. The military-militant nexus in Pakistan, built around army’s misguided obsession with India, pursues strategic priorities in the name of protecting its national interests in Kashmir and Kabul. Sadly, both the Kashmir and Afghan policies of the military have started hurting Pakistan - internally and externally - more than India.
Since the infliction of unacceptable damage may not deter Pakistan from breaking the nuclear taboo, a ‘tit for tat’ strategy in case of lower order nuclear use is worth considering.
It makes little sense whether a strategic or tactical nuclear weapon is used by Pakistan, since India’s general response would be to carry out a punitive attack on the adversary.
Game theory can be helpful in understanding how India and Pakistan can get out of the low paying unhelpful situations, throw light on crisis escalation and crisis stability, and to understand their nuclear thresholds.
There is a need to conclusively revisit the issue of India’s response, and other pro-active measures, to deter and forestall terrorist attacks in future.
Pakistan’s conciliatory approach towards India is tactical and could change rapidly if the army decides that its interests are better served through a more offensive posture.
Ever since India and Pakistan conducted nuclear tests in 1998, Western media reports have constantly highlighted the dramatic increase in Pakistan's production of nuclear fissile materials and nuclear warheads. Reports published at end of January in the New York Times and the Washington Post are a case in point. These reports, quoting serving and retired US administration officials, mentioned that the latest US intelligence assessments have concluded that Pakistan has been steadily expanding its nuclear arsenal – particularly since President Obama took office in 2009.
The success of high-level talks between India and Pakistan would depend on how the media shape popular opinion in the two countries and popular support to take the relationship forward.
