There is a plethora of evidence to show that the problem of establishing a Defence Modernisation Fund does not lie with any ‘rules of business’, but instead with its merit and workability.
While certain changes in the format of the defence Demand for Grants have brought even more complexity to the task of estimating India’s official defence budget, the fact remains that there has only been a meagre increase of 5 per cent which is grossly inadequate to keep the Armed Forces in fighting form.
Budget is not just all about figures but also a statement of policy. The Defence Budget for 2017-18 contains no hint of any intention of the government to bring about a paradigm shift in the defence policy.
If the defence expenditure relationship to the GDP of 1.65 per cent is maintained, we may see a budget estimate (BE) for defence expenditure of Rs. 285,000 crores, against the current year BE of Rs. 249,099 crores.
There is a need to go beyond stale issues and have a more meaningful and dispassionate discussion on how to make the best use of the allocations made for defence.
The past decade, and in particular the Twelfth Plan period, have been challenging times for the Indian defence budget. Strategic foresight demands that India’s military strength and capabilities relate to diverse challenges by way of a not unlikely two-front war, the attendant imperatives for a ‘Cold Start’ capability, non-conventional challenges from non-state actors, counter-terrorism capabilities and unavoidable internal security responsibilities.
Furthering the premise of an increasingly severe security environment, Japan’s latest defence white paper has accorded relatively more space to its ‘strong concerns’ over China’s ‘active maritime expansion’ as well as progress in North Korea’s missile development programme.
While it may be tempting for the Niti Aayog to make deep inroads into defence planning, it would be wise to focus only on those areas that do not disturb the core function of defence preparedness.
Calculations reveal that the capital expenditure has been cut primarily to accommodate the rise in salary and pension bills arising out of the implementation of OROP scheme and the Seventh Central Pay Commission recommendations.
