Afghanistan

Given the ideological convergence the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has with the Taliban, the latter may not be able or willing to fulfil Pakistan’s demand that its activities be curbed.

Border clashes and failure to act against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have led to rising tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

While the international community has maintained a cautious stand vis-à-vis the Taliban, Tajikistan has decisively thrown its weight in support of the resistance movement against the Taliban and has made a clarion call for an inclusive government in Afghanistan.

US–Pakistan relations have witnessed upheavals in the past; the US’ exit from Afghanistan is the latest in the series of inflection points in their relationship. However, irrespective of the escalatory war of words sometimes, the nature of US–Pakistan relationship of convenience is likely to keep them strategically aligned in the future as well.

The relationship between TTP, or Pakistani Taliban, and Afghan Taliban will continue to be dictated by religious-ideological convergence, ethnic-fraternal linkages and the close camaraderie that emerged while they were fighting together against the foreign ‘occupying’ forces in Afghanistan.

India's emphasis on humanitarian crisis, concerns about possible misuse of Afghan territory by fringe elements, and silence on issues like how to deal with Taliban, and the prospect of India's recognition of new regime or lack of it, indicate that India's new Afghanistan policy is still in making.

Neither Russia and China nor the Central Asian countries have a clear strategy on how to handle the rapidly changing canvas in Afghanistan. An ambivalent waiting game tied by slow calibrated response has become the sine qua non strategy for the stakeholders in Afghanistan.

The early reactions from Turkey and Iran underline their readiness to work with the Taliban to safeguard their interests and expand their regional influence. Both are also willing to work with other regional actors to mitigate traditional and non-traditional security threats emanating from Afghanistan.

The choice of words Taliban employs to communicate with the international community is symptomatic not only of the limits of inter-cultural communication, but also depicts how meanings move across geo-cultural spaces and that “right” vocabularies are being used indeed as a qualifier to join the community of nations.

The ongoing dialogue between the US and the Taliban has generated lot of interest among strategic analysts in the region and beyond. There are indications that the Taliban are hardening their position as the US appears to be in a haste to pull off an agreement.