Medha Bisht replies: Bhutan has adopted a very cautious, guarded and pragmatic foreign policy towards China. Given the strong India - Bhutan relations, which is built on the foundation of trust and mutual benefit, it is unlikely that Bhutan will tilt towards China. There are three other reasons which will discourage Bhutan's tilt towards China. First, Bhutan's industrial belt is in the South and geographically trade facilitation becomes more convenient with India. Second, Bhutan- China boundary dispute has not been resolved as yet. I do not see both countries having an economic relationship with an unresolved boundary dispute in the back burner. Third, for establishing ties with China, Bhutan will have to reverse its policy of not having any diplomatic relations with P-5 countries. That would mean having diplomatic relations with the United States of America too.

Having said this, I am not negating the possibility of the China factor. Domestic pressure is building up in Bhutan to resolve the boundary dispute with China. With Bhutan now encouraging the private sector to come up, there will be some circles in Bhutan, who will see business in engaging with China.

Today, the Indo- Bhutan relations have become all encompassing, cross cutting various sections of society. India, therefore, has to be more sensitive and responsive in its engagement with Bhutan. India also needs to factor in the change taking place in Bhutanese society and politics.

Medha Bisht replies: Chumbi Valley has historically been of economic value to India, Tibet and Bhutan. Given the Chinese posturing on Chumbi Valley, however it has been elevated to a strategic level. In the changing geo-political context, as China makes inroads into Southern Asia, suspicion over the Chinese’s intent therefore needs to be reckoned with.

Chinese influence over the Chumbi valley could impact India in four ways. First, China proximity to India’s North-East and Siliguri Corridor which connects North-Eastern states to India and Nepal to Bhutan becomes closer. Second, it also gets closer to Bangladesh’s periphery in the North as a narrow stretch of land divides Bangladesh from Bhutan. Third, China, will have a better hold over Tibet, thus weakening any potential cards which India would want to play at a later stage, and fourth, it get an offensive advantage to thwart India’s military posturing. Defence of Sikkim in this context would be important. Six roads so far have been built by China near Bhutan’s North and North-West areas. Some sources point out that by 2017, China can have a rail link going to the place.

India first needs to look inwards and strengthen it its defence preparedness and infrastructure construction plans. Second, at the bilateral level focused effort are needed on engaging Bhutan as a strategic partner, thus sensitizing it of Indian concerns. Third, India should maximize its soft-power approach, providing an enabling environment in Sikkim for Buddhism to flourish.