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  • China’s Gorbachov Angst

    Till China’s economy gallops along developing at 9 per cent annually, there is little chance that domestic dissidence will get out of hand. But China’s Gorbachov moment will arrive if either the economy begins to slow down and shows irretrievable signs of faltering or China suffers a major foreign policy and military fiasco as did the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.

    January 16, 2014

    Taking Stock of Chinese Leader Xi Jinping’s One Year Rule

    In the last one year, Xi’s has consolidated his position within the Standing Committee of the Party Politbureau, elevated information security as China’s core concern and focused on internal security as a result of slowing of the economy. Taking a cue from Mao, Xi has promoted the spirit of nationalism in China and like Mao he is finding a foreign target for nothing subsumes internal dissidence as does the promotion of xenophobic tendencies.

    December 20, 2013

    Russia and China in the Arctic: A Team of Rivals

    The Arctic is beginning to test the stage-managed optics of China and Russia’s ‘strategic partnership’. Friction was most recently on display after the Arctic Council’s May 2013 decision to confer permanent observer status on Beijing. The Chinese media celebrated the move as an affirmation of the nation’s ‘legitimate rights’ in Arctic affairs.1 Russian officials were much less enthusiastic.

    November 2013

    Chinese intrusions across the LAC

    China’s border intrusions have been bolstered by a steady and committed expansion of its military hardware and infrastructure in Tibet and neighbouring provinces. The improvement of surface transportation near the LAC has resulted in larger military presence and augmented rapid deployment capacities of the PLA and the PLAAF.

    December 17, 2013

    China’s ADIZ: A Case of an Overreach?

    There is no doubt that this an audacious foreign policy gambit played by China. Un-named Chinese officials have been quoted in the Chinese press to say that China is willing to instigate strategic confrontation against Japan and are prepared for it to last a 'long time'.

    December 10, 2013

    Cause and Effect of the ADIZ over East China Sea

    The primary aim of the ADIZ is to provide a lead time to the air force, in case of hostile aircraft intruding, and take appropriate actions to counter them. The establishment of the ADIZ in the East China Sea by China is a signal of its assertiveness and authority over the Senkaku/Diaoyu island and probably a readiness to escalate it.

    December 06, 2013

    Chinese ADIZ in East China Sea: Posers for India

    China has created a furor by announcing the creation of an Air Defence identification Zone (ADIZ) over the Senkakau/Diayou islands in East China Sea. There is now little doubt that China is displaying a muscular foreign policy and most countries in Asia would be wary of a hard response because of the growing dependence of their economies on China.

    December 02, 2013

    India and Asian Geopolitics

    India and Asian Geopolitics

    In this second-part of the Policy Paper series, P Stobdan suggests that in the recent Indian strategic discourse, commentators have been exulting the US ‘Asia Pivot’ and seriously hoped that the idea will offset China’s regional outreach, for it also appeared similar to India’s own ‘Look East’ policy, which to an extent enabled New Delhi to ruffle a few feathers in the East Asian region.

    November 28, 2013

    Pranathi Asked: Will Mars Orbiter Mission outpace China's space dominance over India?

    Ajey Lele replies: The Chinese space programme is much more advanced than the Indian programme. China succeeded in putting its astronaut in space a decade ago in 2003, whereas India has no immediate plan for manned space mission. Shortly, they would be launching their third mission to Moon where a robot would be actually landing on the Moon, while it may take some more time for India to launch its second Moon mission. Also, China has a satellite navigation programme with global reach, which is not the case with India.

    In spite of the above, some believe that India is in a space race with China. It is important to appreciate that “space race” is essentially a Cold War era concept. In the 21st century, for a nation like India, “pragmatism” is the key when deciding on its geopolitical priorities. For India, space is of importance for social and economic reasons. India's space programme is India-specific and not China-specific. It would be naive to think that just because a Chinese satellite could not make it to Mars, India is trying to race with China.

    For more on India’s Mars mission, please refer to Ajey Lele’s following recent publications:

    Ajey Lele, “The late beginner advantage”, Indian Express, November 11, 2013.

    Ajey Lele, Mission Mars: India's Quest for the Red Planet, Springer, 2013.

    China’s Perception of ‘Look East Policy’ and Its Implications

    China’s Perception of ‘Look East Policy’ and Its Implications

    The monograph explores China's perception of India's Look East Policy (LEP) and how that affects India's strategy in the Asia-Pacific region. Beijing does not favour a strong Indian presence and influence in Southeast Asia. China is both a determinant and a constraint in India's Look East Policy.

    2013

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