The issue of Bangladeshi illegal migration has troubled the state of Assam for decades now. Assamese political and social discourses fear that this unchecked migration from across the border will subvert their way of life and change the demographic profile of the state in the near future.
Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is visiting India on January 10, 2009. Both India and Bangladesh are looking foward to resolving some of the key bilateral issues. In the light of the new political climate in Bangladesh ever since Sheikh Hasina returned to power, what are the options for India?
It is true that any negotiation with the outfit in the absence of Paresh Barua is going to meet only with partial success, but if the government manages to mainstream Arabinda Rajkhowa, the support base of ULFA would further erode.
New Delhi and Dhaka may have reached a tacit understanding that Northeast rebels based in Bangladesh will be simply picked up and handed over to India.
India’s position stands vindicated. It had for long maintained that not only have insurgents from the north east found safe havens in Bangladeshi soil but that they have enjoyed the backing of the Bangladeshi state as well. These allegations have now been proven with the confessional statement of Md. Hafizur Rahman and Din Mohammad, the two accused in the Chittagong arms haul case. This was the largest arms haul in Bangladesh, which had taken place on April 2, 2004 in the Chittagong area.
The landslide victory of the Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina in the December 29, 2008 parliamentary elections ended the two-year old political uncertainty in Bangladesh and marks the return of a democratic government. With 262 seats out of 299 for the Awami League-led Grand Alliance, Sheikh Hasina is entrusted with the onus of opening a new era in the history of Bangladesh. The mandate clearly shows that people voted to power the party that won the country’s independence from Pakistan, and rejected the BNP-led four-party combine which got only 32 seats.
China's influence in South Asia has significantly grown over the years, and in particular Bangladeshi-Chinese relations are now robust and very comprehensive. This is in contrast to Bangladeshi-Indian relations, which are extremely uneven. While the latter are substantial and not totally negative, in comparison to Bangladeshi-Chinese relations they are riddled with controversies. How does one explain this contrast, especially when China lacks the historic-cultural advantages and linkages that India has with Bangladesh?
Though the recent Indo-Bangladesh Foreign Secretary level talks held in New Delhi made significant progress on several issues, there was no forward movement on the issue of connectivity. Bangladesh remains reluctant to extend this facility to India, though bilateral relations have generally been trouble-free in the last two years.
The spate of talks and meetings between India and Bangladesh is unmatched in recent times. This pace alone sets bilateral relations apart from the five long years when the BNP-led coalition government was in power (2000-05) in Bangladesh. The recent (July 17, 2008) Foreign Secretary level talks have once again brought home the fact of how the interim government in Bangladesh without having to pander to any particular constituency has been able to constructively engage with its largest neighbour.
Bangladesh Cooperates on Terror: Can India translate it into Success?
It is true that any negotiation with the outfit in the absence of Paresh Barua is going to meet only with partial success, but if the government manages to mainstream Arabinda Rajkhowa, the support base of ULFA would further erode.