Abhijit Singh replies: In order to assess the security implications of the Maritime Silk Road (MSR), it is necessary to understand what the proposal really entails. China’s plan for a maritime corridor is intended at creating maritime infrastructure and enhancing connectivity in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. First proposed by President Xi Jinping during his trip to Southeast Asia in October 2013, the MSR was originally aimed at enhancing maritime cooperation between China and the ASEAN countries in the South China Sea. Recently, however, China reached out to Sri Lanka and India inviting them to join the MSR, revealing a wider vision for the Indian Ocean.

An idea essentially premised on the leveraging of Chinese soft power, the MSR is potentially beneficial for all regional states in the near term. Part of its appeal lies in an allied initiative of a maritime cooperation fund announced by Chinese Premier Li Kechiang last year, which regional state have shown interest in. The sales pitch of “shared economic gains”, however, does little to conceal the proposal’s real purpose: ensuring the security of Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) in the Indian Ocean. In its eventual form, therefore, the MSR could end up setting up Chinese logistical hubs and military bases, linking up already existing ‘string of pearls’.

As Beijing becomes more involved in the security and governance of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), it could pose a challenge to India’s stature of a ‘net provider of security’ in the region, thereby adversely affecting New Delhi’s geopolitical stakes and strategic influence.

Posted on April 16, 2014

Sarabjeet Singh Parmar replies: The broad meaning that one can discern from various statements made about India being a ‘net security provider’ in the Indian Ocean is about India ensuring a stable, secure and peaceful environment in the region. The main aspects that are viewed as responsible for this can be construed as follows:

• India’s predominant central geographic position in the region, especially overlooking the SLOCs that pass through the region.
• India’s military capacity and capability that has a distinct reach in the region due to its geographic position.
• India’s friendly relations and defence cooperation with most of the IOR nations.
• India’s relatively strong economy and market capacity.
• India’s non-hegemonic stance and its will and ability to provide assistance when requested.

Posted on April 07, 2014

Abhijit Singh replies: The opening of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), though significant for international trade, does not benefit India directly as the passage does not offer a shorter route for any cargo or energy consignment bound for Indian shores. The NSR is essentially a passage linking Europe with East Asia. While the increasing duration of its navigability – it was open for shipping for nearly six months last year, up from four months in previous years - benefits other Asian countries like China, Japan and South Korea because of their relatively larger volume of trade with the US and Europe, Indian trading and commercial interest are minimally affected.

A permanently navigable NSR may, however, set the tone for a gradual recalibration of the international focus that the Indian Ocean presently enjoys as a 'trade highway'. Currently, the trade flow through the NSR is a miniscule percentage of global trade. But as use of the passage grows, it might result in a gradual shift in trade patterns with a relative decline in traffic being routed through the Indian Ocean. Speculative as the scenario may appear, if it ever does come to pass, India’s existing strategic clout and geo-political leverage in the Indian Ocean could be adversely impacted.

Posted on March 07, 2014