This year Pakistan is facing an acute water shortage and the shortage during the current Rabi crop is estimated to be around 35 to 40 per cent, which will adversely affect the wheat output, critical for the country’s food security. Pakistan also faces an acute power shortage, which has exacerbated by the reduced outflow from Tarbela Dam. To tide over the problems, Pakistan is building Bhasha Dam on River Indus, which is the largest dam being built in Pakistan since Tarbela was completed in 1976. Continuous silting has reduced the storage capacity of Tarbela and Mangla dams considerably.

Amidst apprehensions of a conflict between India and Pakistan after attacks on Mumbai on 26 November, as Pakistani security forces ostensibly diverted their attention from the Western to the Eastern borders, terror related violence showed an increase from 372 in November to 388 in December. Although there was no movement of troops from the Western borders to the East, Pakistani security forces allowed vast tracts of land in FATA and Swat Valley go under the control of Taliban.

In an article published by Washington Post on January 28, 2009, Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari hinted that Pakistan regards water as a major issue in bilateral relations with India. The article, titled “Partnering with Pakistan,” was a plea to US President Obama to continue to recognize Pakistan’s role in the US’ war on terrorism and regional stability. But Zardari did not miss the opportunity to make a mention of the water. He wrote:

British Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, arrived in India on his two-day visit on 13 January, barely a month and a half after the carnage in Mumbai. His visit was controversial for what he said during the visit and it was made worse by his article that appeared in The Guardian on the last day of his visit. It even provoked the normally restrained Ministry of External Affairs to comment that it could do without Miliband’s “unsolicited advice” and that his views were only “evolving”.

The number of violent incidents in Pakistan increased from 309 in September 2008 to 346 in October 2008. Yet, casualty figures decreased from 1342 to 1081.1 This shows that Pakistan’s security forces have succeeded in controlling the level of violence, even though current levels are still unacceptably high. 582 suspected militants, most of them from the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) were also arrested by the security forces during the month, in military operations as well as during searches in various areas.

The contention that stability in Afghanistan is linked to the resolution of the Kashmir issue is fallacious. It only serves the interests of a particular interest group, which has consistently tried to link stability in the subcontinent to the Kashmir issue, and which is now illogically stretching this argument to include stability in Afghanistan. This argument gives the impression that the dynamics in the two cases are interlinked, when they clearly are not.

Although September coincides with the holy month of Ramzan in the Islamic calendar, the violence in Pakistan during the month surpassed that in August, which itself was the most violent month. Despite the fasting and sanctity accorded to Ramzan in Islam, it is also associated with Shahadat (martyrdom) and people laying down their life during this holy month are often considered Shaheeds (martyrs). This probably explains to some extent the extremely enhanced level of violence in Pakistan during September 2008 and why various Ramzan ceasefires negotiated in August and September floundered.