The outcome of the elections in Myanmar is awaited anxiously by the international community but not much change is expected.

On one hand the military Junta is wary of the international backlash in case it tampers with the election process, and on the other it knows what its fate would be if ‘truly fair and democratic elections’ are held.

There is no denying that Myanmar has an ongoing nuclear research programme but whether it has the intention of developing nuclear weapons remains unclear.

Tacit Chinese endorsement of the policies pursued by North Korea and Myanmar has emboldened them to persist with policies that are detrimental for peace and stability in the region.

Clearly, there is immense scope for cooperation between India and Myanmar to deal in agro-based products, floriculture, engineering, timber and tobacco and expand business cooperation. Although there has been a significant increase in bilateral trade in recent years, full potential has yet to be realised.

Vice President Hamid Ansari’s four-day visit to Myanmar from February 5 to 8, 2009 was significant for business matters as India and Myanmar signed agreements with regard to Tata Motors setting up a truck manufacturing unit in Myanmar, cross-border transport, telecommunications, the establishment of English Language training Centre and Industrial Training Centre at Pakokku.

Hydrocarbon rich Bay of Bengal seems to be emerging as another centre of oil politics. This was recently manifested by a standoff between Myanmar and Bangladesh, when Dhaka sent three naval vessels to stop Myanmar from conducting exploration activities in their disputed Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). The crisis has since been diffused, though it is far from over.

Howsoever much others may want to distance India from mlitary-ruled Myanmar, the widespread devastation caused by Cyclone Nargis has brought India into the spotlight. That it occurred barely a week prior to Myanmar’s proposed constitutional Referendum on May 10 brought this out in bold relief.