Iran has unfortunately witnessed a deep political upheaval in the wake of recent Presidential elections leading to vertical polarization among its ruling elite between two major factions, one led by President Ahmadinejad and supported by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the other by opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi backed by big personalities and former Presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani. The conflict between the two elite factions is internally driven and one that is difficult to discern fully.
The recent clashes that occurred between the Uighur Muslims and the Han Chinese workers in a toy factory and the subsequent spread of violence throughout the Xinjiang Uighur region have elicited strong responses from around the world. The clashes led to the death of over 184 people and left hundreds injured. The issue has also drawn world attention for the way it has been handled by the Chinese government.
As the new government headed by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu takes charge in Jerusalem, it seems that there are no easy solutions to what Israel perceives to be its central strategic question – how to effectively stop the Iranian nuclear quest. Israel’s leaders across the political spectrum have long maintained that a nuclear capable Iran, coupled with the rhetoric against Israel emanating from Tehran and its help to groups like the Hezbollah and the Hamas, constitutes an existential threat.
North East Asia’s fragile peace is being threatened by North Korea’s planned launch between 4 and 8 April over Japanese territory of a communication satellite. The US and its allies suspect the planned satellite launch to be a long-range ballistic missile test. The prevailing uneasy peace is accentuated by the fact that both a ballistic missile and a satellite launcher operate on very similar technology.
US President Barack Obama’s landmark appeal to the Iranian people for a shift away from decades of confrontation was a significant move in the right direction. Obama’s videotaped message on March 20, 2009 (on the occasion of Nowruz) stated that “the US wants the Islamic Republic of Iran to take its rightful place in the community of nations but it comes with real responsibilities...” Obama’s offers came 30 years after the US broke off diplomatic relations with Iran.
One year ago, in February 2008, Iran launched a sounding rocket into outer space to mark the opening of its first space centre. This rocket essentially belonged to the ‘category’ of instrument-carrying crafts. Such crafts are designed to take measurements and perform scientific experiments during their sub-orbital flight. Within a year, on 3 February 2009, Iran successfully launched its first domestically manufactured satellite "Omid" (Hope), which was carried into space by the home-built Safir-2 space rocket.
If anybody thought that a change of talk in the Bush administration’s Iran policy would be enough to induce the “isolated” Tehran to give up its intransigence and toe the western line, the July 19 meeting proved him or her wrong. Before the Geneva meeting between Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana, the US sent feelers to Tehran.
National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan’s announcement at an international seminar that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would be converting what was originally meant to be a refuelling stop into an official stop-over in New Delhi on his way home from Sri Lanka generated much speculation about the reasons for and timing of the visit.
Iranian Upheaval and Implications for Indian Policy
Iran has unfortunately witnessed a deep political upheaval in the wake of recent Presidential elections leading to vertical polarization among its ruling elite between two major factions, one led by President Ahmadinejad and supported by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the other by opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi backed by big personalities and former Presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani. The conflict between the two elite factions is internally driven and one that is difficult to discern fully.