The BrahMos deal with the Philippines marks a convergence between India’s Act East and Defence Export policies and adds to its profile as a reliable defence partner in the Indo-Pacific.

The Hague Tribunal’s decision and China’s take on it are unlikely to compel Duterte to ignore economic interests that can be furthered through cooperation with China.

In purely legal terms, the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s decision will be binding, and a refusal to abide by its findings could have consequences. Beijing has, however, made it clear that in the event of a negative ruling it will simply ignore the judgment.

The Chinese decision to send warships to the Scarborough shoals was intended to send a message not only to the Philippines but also to the United States as well as other Asian countries in dispute with China over the South China Sea.