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  • Internal Security Trends in 2013 and a Prognosis

    The internal security situation in India reflected a marked improvement in 2012-2013 relative to previous years. This Issue Brief offers an assessment of the major trends in 2013 for Jammu and Kashmir, the land borders of India, Naxalism, the Northeast, terrorism and radicalism in India. It also offers a prognosis for the year ahead.

    January 24, 2014

    Siddhartha Jain asked: What are the short-term and long-term solutions to the Kashmir insurgency?

    Ashok Kumar Behuria replies: Kashmir is a difficult issue woven into the nationalist consciousness in both India and Pakistan over the decades. India considers it its secular crown; Pakistan regards it as its jugular vein and its terra irredenta (un-redeemed territory that rightfully belonged to it). Hence, to expect an early solution is unrealistic. But the two countries must take measures to improve bilateral relationship progressively and create conducive atmosphere for such thorny issues to be discussed in a dispassionate manner.

    Short term measures could be keeping the official and unofficial lines of communications alive even in the face of gravest provocations from the spoilers, and keep discussing the issues isolated under the composite dialogue. The progress made through dialogue begs for better dissemination through media. More regular dialogue between security establishments is another measure which may moderate Pakistani approach towards India. Moreover, peace along the LoC and international border should be ensured by both the countries at all costs.

    Long term measures could be setting up a high level joint body from both the countries at a semi-official level and encourage it to thrash out issues related to Kashmir, and identify shortcomings in various approaches adopted by both the countries so far. There is also a significant body of literature on how to resolve the Kashmir issue based on measures adopted by countries at the international level while dealing with similar cases. Issues like porous borders, shared control, joint sovereignty, neutral terrain, etc., have been discussed in the available literature. Such efforts can tap into the existing literature and suggest alternatives to both the governments.

    Is It Time to Withdraw the Army from Kashmir?

    2013 witnessed the highest ceasefire violations in eight years, accompanied by a sharp increase in security force casualties. Some sections within the media and intelligentsia have misunderstood the army’s presence in disturbed areas as a reflection of its vested interests. It is time that the reality of its role and responsibility are better understood.

    December 13, 2013

    September 26 Attacks in J&K: Assessing the Response

    The infiltration by a large group of terrorists in the Karen Sector, is a harsh reminder for the police, army and security planners in the country that the ongoing proxy war from Pakistan will continue to challenge the Indian state.

    October 04, 2013

    Pranathi Reddy asked: Can the repeal of the AFSPA in J&K revive peace?

    Reply: Kindly refer to the earlier replies by Ali Ahmed and K.C. Dixit on a similar/related query posted in this section, at http://idsa.in/askanexpert/IwantedtoknowaboutArmedForcesSpecialPowersAct and http://idsa.in/askanexpert/CrisisoverAFSPA

    Also, refer to the following IDSA publications on the issue:

    Vivek Chadha (ed.), “Armed Forces Special Powers Act: The Debate”, IDSA Monograph Series No. 7, 2012 (free download)
    Ali Ahmed, “Reconciling AFSPA with the Legal Spheres”, Journal of Defence Studies, 5 (2), April 2011 (free download)
    K.C. Dixit, “Revoking AFSPA Blown Out of Proportion”, Journal of Defence Studies, 4 (4), October 2010 (free download)
    K. C. Dixit, “Calling the Army for Peace Restoration”, IDSA Comment, August 23, 2010.
    Harinder Singh, AFSPA: A Soldier’s Perspective, IDSA Comment, July 06, 2010.

    Views expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or the Government of India.

    Prem asked: What could be the security implications of the US departure from Afghanistan for India, particularly in J&K?

    Ashok Kumar Behuria replies: The US departure from Afghanistan will certainly embolden the radical elements in the Pak-Af region. Some of these groups have already started celebrating their victory over two super powers within three decades— first the Soviet Union and now the USA. Particularly worrying for India is their growing hold over the Pakistani society and polity. In recent years, some of these groups, especially the ones allied to Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), have started targeting the Pakistani military establishment and have made their intentions clear that they would like to impose Sharia in Pakistan at all costs.

    Unable to judge the gravity of the situation, the Pakistani military refuses to recognise the deep inter-connections among all radical groups and continues to make the distinction between good and bad jihadis. Strategists within the military establishment continue to endorse the military's romance with the jihadis with the intention of using them as instruments against India. As the time of withdrawal of the US forces comes closer, commentators in the Pakistani vernacular media, known for their links with the military, have started harping on the need to refocus Pakistan's attention on Kashmir by diverting the jihadis towards India. That explains the spurt in infiltration and the tension along the LoC since last year. India will have to keep its ears to the ground and constantly monitor the Pakistani behaviour in this regard.

    Restraining Kargil: Nuclear Caution in the Shadow of Kashmir

    The debate surrounding the stability of nuclear weapons has been a critical issue for the last half century. On the one hand, realists like Kenneth Waltz argue that the proliferation of nuclear weapons will foster greater stability due to the intrinsic deterrent logic associated with these weapons. The nuclear pessimists, on the other hand, argue that the accidental use of nuclear weapons and unstable regime types are a greater concern for the outbreak of nuclear war.

    July 2013

    Security Situation in J&K: A Reality Check

    The June 24 ambush in J&K accomplished with proficiency and high level of coordination exposes the deceptive calm often showcased in the context of large number of tourists visiting the state.

    June 28, 2013

    Gilgit Baltistan: Between Hope and Despair

    Gilgit Baltistan: Between Hope and Despair

    The monograph attempts to present an exhaustive account on Gilgit Baltistan (part of the erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir and now part of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK)) by contextualising it within the larger discourse on Kashmir.


    Beyond Stereotypes: Contours of the Transition in Jammu and Kashmir

    Beyond Stereotypes: Contours of the Transition in Jammu and Kashmir

    This study aims to highlight the contours of transition in Jammu and Kashmir. The study assays the issues and challenges that were highlighted during the three crises in the State since 2008. It analyses the immediate as well as long-term response of the government to these challenges.