STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

Whither Oil Prices? India’s Choices

Shebonti Ray Dadwal is Senior Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. Click here for detailed profile
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  • July 2018
    Volume: 
    42
    Issue: 
    4
    Commentaries

    President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal has sent oil prices soaring again. Even prior to the May 8, 2018 announcement, after falling to below $30 a barrel in early 2016, oil prices were on the boil again, belying the projections of market analysts, including those of the respected International Energy Agency (IEA), that the era of $100 plus per barrel of oil was over. The projections were based on the assumption that nations would move increasingly away from oil—and coal—to meet their carbon mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement. Therefore, as crude oil prices registered an increase of 24 per cent in the first three months of 2018 to reach a 40-month high in April to $75 a barrel (Brent), the market was taken by surprise, sparking off speculation that a resurgence in oil prices was a distinct possibility.

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