Terror Attack Prediction Based on Time Series Forecasting of Twitter Data

Ranjit Mishra

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The use of social media such as Twitter by terrorist organisations to spread their propaganda and to recruit new members is well-documented. As per an estimate, there were about 46,000–90,000 Twitter accounts in 2014, which either advocated for Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or were run by supporters of the group. In 2015, Twitter reported that it had banned 1,25,000 ISIS sympathetic accounts. In 2016, it published an update that 3,25,000 accounts had been deleted. Social media empowered ISIS recruiting, thereby helping the group draw at least 30,000 foreign fighters, from over 100 countries, to the battlefields of Syria and Iraq. The social media aided the seeding of new franchises in places ranging from Libya and Afghanistan to Nigeria and Bangladesh.

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