Hot Stakes in the Arctic: Global Rivalries and New Geopolitical Forces

The Arctic, so exquisitely remote, seems at times to drift beyond the reach of global politics. In this frigid expanse, the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum standing as a rare bridge, kept its most formidable of rivals—Russia and the US—together, compelling the two to cooperate even as they continued to lock horns elsewhere. It seemed almost too good to be true. The enduring East-West peace once held in the Arctic has come under unaccustomed strain due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, disrupting governance, research and economic activity while challenging decades of practical and operational cooperation across the region’s vast landscapes and seascapes spanning the northern reaches of North America, Europe and Asia. The irony is even more striking as the Arctic States have no direct territorial or sovereignty disputes in the region. Threat perceptions between Russia and the Arctic Seven—Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the United States—are now at an all-time high, particularly in the wake of NATO’s recent expansion, casting a long shadow over Mikhail Gorbachev calling the Arctic as a ‘zone of peace’ in his speech in Murmansk 1987. Non-traditional security issues like climate change, sustainable resource development and the concerns of the indigenous community now teeter on the edge of renewed rivalry, military posturing and strategic interests. In examining the intricate geopolitical strands in the Arctic, this Essay looks at how India—as a non-Arctic State, with independent diplomatic ties with both Russia and the NATO-aligned Arctic Seven—positions its interests in the High North. The analysis posits that, despite the Arctic States’ divergent geopolitical priorities, there is a need to restore a degree of lost cooperation. In this context, a renewed faith in ‘Arctic Science’ emerges as a compelling diplomatic tool, a neutral collaborative platform capable of bridging divides, rebuilding trust and carving out a credible pathway for addressing the Arctic’s most pressing challenges.