Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
मनोहर पर्रिकर रक्षा अध्ययन एवं विश्लेषण संस्थान

Libyan Chaos Reaches European Shores

Commentary

The large exodus of migrants to European shores after undertaking a daring, and in some cases perilous, journey across the Mediterranean has become a reason for concern. According to International Organisation for Migration (IOM), by June 2015, 102,000 migrants had arrived in Europe by sea. 54,660 of them arrived in Italy and 46,150 entered Europe from Greece.1 If the period from January till May is considered, then the number is 47,449, as compared to 41,243 migrants who arrived in Italy in the same months last year. In Greece the numbers arriving last year in the period between January and May was 34,000, while this year 46,150 have already arrived. 2 The migrants in Italy have come mostly via Libya while the migrants in Greece have come via Turkey. The situation has been so alarming that European Union has been contemplating military action to detest traffickers from undertaking dangerous missions across the Mediterranean. However, the military option will have limited success. Stability in Libya will be the key to any long term cooperation between EU and Libya. Meanwhile, increasing EU presence in the Mediterranean to tackle human trafficking will shrink AU’s strategic space in the region.

Routes to prosperity and profit run from Libya

Under the classification made by European Union’s border management agency FRONTEX, there are four migration routes in the Mediterranean: the Western Mediterranean route, the Eastern Mediterranean route, the Central Mediterranean route and the Apulia and Calabria route (also known as the Southern Italian route). African migration takes place from the Western Mediterranean route, the Central Mediterranean route and the Apulia and Calabria route. The Apulia and Calabria route is popular mainly for migrants coming from or via Egypt. This route is used generally by Syrians and other migrants from Asia. Currently it is mainly the Central Mediterranean route that is the main conduit for migration among Africans and the source of concern for the EU. 3 This route is used by sub-Saharan migrants. Traditionally this route has been major corridor for clandestine migration into Europe. The exit point in Africa on this route is Libya. According to FRONTEX, immediately after the fall of Qaddafi regime in 2011, migration reduced, but it started to increase again after 2012. The year 2014 witnessed huge migratory flows with 170000 migrants arriving in Italy. This represents the largest influx of migrants in a single EU Member State in the entire history of the EU. 4 Therefore, the EU has good reason to be concerned.

Libya’s geographical location makes it an apt exit point for migrating to Europe. It has 1,900 kilometre coastline along the Mediterranean and approximately 4,375 kilometre of land border which it shares with six countries.5 There are many routes that enter into Libya from various parts of North, East and West Africa. The country has two seaports, four airports and eight land crossings. During the Qaddafi regime, entry points into Libya were clearly earmarked, but presently these entry points have not been identified as the government is not in control of the entire territory and borders are being controlled by various tribal groups. 6 Tribal groups are increasingly involved in smuggling of migrants as similar ethnic groups straddle across the borders as well. For example, the Tuareg control migrant smuggling routes running from North Niger and Algeria and the Zway tribal group controls eastern migrant routes running from Sudan and Chad. 7 Also, in general, adequate infrastructure and resources for border control and management are lacking in many countries like Niger, Sudan and Chad. Adding to the chaos is the current political turmoil in Libya where the country is divided between two governments and various rival militias running amok. 8 This situation is being exploited by human traffickers to use the country as a conduit to transport migrants across the Mediterranean.

Limits of EU’s military action

According to the historical institutional theory of migration, institutions have impact on migratory flows. The immigration industry, both legal and illegal represent institutions, and hence are important drivers of migratory flows. Human trafficking is despicable and perverse institution as it not only encourages illegal migration flows, it encourages other forms of organised crime, violates human rights, encourages bonded labour and various other forms of exploitation and puts many innocent lives in danger. Hence discouraging human trafficking is very much warranted. But is military solution the best way of dealing with the problem?

Let us look at the EU’s military plan to tackle human trafficking in Mediterranean. The first phase of EU’s military operations consists of reconnaissance and intelligence collection. 9 This consists of intelligence gathering through naval aircrafts and satellite. This shall shed light on the points of embarkation of the journey and the routes taken by traffickers. The next four phases are about destroying assets of the traffickers thereby making their business unprofitable. In the second phase, boats are to be seized and destroyed in international waters. 10 The third phase consists of further extending operations into the Libyan waters, whereby boats will be seized within Libyan waters and destroyed. 11 The last phase is about attacking trafficker infrastructure located on Libyan shores and ports. 12 The entire operation is to be conducted through aerial or naval bombardment and no ground troops will be used. 13 The idea of military operation seems to be pushed by the EU’s High Representative of Foreign Affairs, Frederica Mogherini, as she comes from Italy, a country worse affected by the influx of migrants. The EU has steadily worked towards furthering its operations against traffickers in the Mediterranean. 14 The Europol launched Joint Operation Team (JOT) Mare in March 2015 for better intelligence on traffickers and their networks. 15 The first indication of military action came in the April 20, 2015 press release the “Joint Foreign and Home Affairs Council: Ten point action plan on migration”. 16 The press release called for enhancing FRONTEX operations, the Operation Triton and Operation Poseidon in the Mediterranean. It also mentioned that attempts should be made to seize the boats and destroy them. 17

The military plan is fettered with many limitations. The plan is based on the success of EU NAVFOR Operation Atlanta that was launched to combat piracy in the Indian Ocean Region. 18 The business model of pirates is very different from that of human traffickers. Pirates have to seize ships, crew members and the cargo which it is carrying and then use them to generate revenue to make profits. 19 In case of human traffickers, the profits are already made before they embark upon the journey.20 It is also known that most traffickers do not travel with the migrants in the boat.21 They teach a few migrants to navigate and then set the boats to sail. 21 Therefore, any military operation to seize traffickers on the high sea would be a wasted effort. On the contrary, it may encourage migration since the risks of journey would reduce as the chances of being spotted by naval ships will increase the probability of being rescued. 22 Even destroying boats of the traffickers is not going to have any serious dent on their profits as they would have already recovered the cost of the boat from the migrants. Boats used by traffickers are often assumed be an expendable commodity and many traffickers abandon the boats after completing the journey. 23 However, there are other legal obstacles to the EU’s military action. Military action on Libyan waters and territory will require approval from the Libyan government or a United Nations Security Council mandate. Libya has said that it will not allow EU to operate in its waters. Libyan Ambassador to the United Nations Ibrahim Dabbashi questioned EU’s intentions to carry out military action in Libyan waters. 24 Any attempt to get a UNSC mandate will be blocked by Russia due to ongoing tensions between Russia and EU in Ukraine. Hence, EU can technically only go forward with the first two phases of its operation. Given these limitations, EU’s military action will fail to achieve intended results

In such a scenario, diplomatic efforts and cooperation with Libya in particular and the African Union in general remain the only alternative for the EU. The EU has various cooperation instruments with Africa at the continental, regional and bilateral level. The EU and African Union (AU) have Migration and Mobility Dialogue and the Action Plan 2014-2017 deals with tackling of human trafficking. 25 At regional level there are initiatives like the Rabat Process with the ECOWAS countries and the Khartoum Process with Egypt, Eretria, Ethiopia, Sudan and South Sudan. 26 On the bilateral front, EU has policy dialogues and cooperation with Cape Verde, Morocco and Tunisia. 27 EU had aimed to start a policy dialogue and cooperation with Libya, but given the precarious political and security situation in the country such a dialogue is not possible. Many immigration programs are on hold in Libya due to the volatile situation in the country with the exception of the Sea Horse Program that trains Libyan Coastal Guard. Unless Libya has a strong government in place, there will be limits to what EU can do. 28

Given the deep divisions between the EU member states on the issue of migration and the rise of right wing parties in some European countries, migration will remain an important issue. The paucity of options for a solution will lead to increasing securitisation of migration in Europe. Meanwhile, the African Union should recognise that the migrant problem is as much theirs as of Europe. After all, the migrants perishing in the sea are not Europeans, but Sub-Saharan Africans. Increasing EU presence in the Mediterranean will shrink AU’s strategic space in the sea that has often been known as “the European lake”. AU can use the migrant issue to enhance its role in the Mediterranean.

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