Improving Global Food Security: The Impact of the Black Sea Grain Initiative
- March 27, 2023 |
- Issue Brief
Summary: Global food security has been significantly impacted due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Rising food inflation and reduced availability of key commodities are some of the major concerns. To address these challenges, the Black Sea Grain Initiative was introduced, which has played a vital role in bridging the demand and supply gap and providing a degree of stability to global food prices. Given the significant consequences of non-cooperation, the continuation of this initiative is critical to safeguard the future of global food security.
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has triggered a polycrisis of global food, fuel and fertiliser insecurity. In February 2022, the cessation of exports from the region resulted in reduced availability and escalated costs, thereby posing a threat to the food security of several nations that are reliant on Russia and Ukraine for their food supplies.
To alleviate the effects of the conflict, the Black Sea Grain Initiative was introduced to regulate food supply. With Ukrainian grain reaching global markets and Russia’s recent decision to renew the deal for an additional 60 days, it necessitates an examination of the initiative’s impact on global food security. Amid debates over multilateralism, it is also imperative to recognise the benefits of cooperation in addressing non-traditional security challenges, as evidenced by this initiative.
What is the Initiative?
On 22 July 2022, the United Nations (UN) and the Republic of Türkiye brokered the deal between Russia and Ukraine to establish a safe humanitarian corridor for the transportation of grains and fertilisers from the ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa and Yuzhny/ Pivdennyi.1 The agreement aimed to address the growing global food insecurity concerns, rising prices and facilitate the unimpeded export of food, sunflower oil and fertilisers from the three ports.2 The deal was brokered after a series of parallel negotiations in April 2022 through the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) task forces dealing with Russian and Ukrainian representatives, respectively.3 Russia also entered into a separate Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the UN Secretariat to further facilitate trade and supply.4
Following the signing of the deal, a Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) was established in Istanbul to manage and monitor the export of food commodities. The JCC teams, comprising UN, Ukrainian, Turkish, and Russian officials, conduct inspections on ships arriving and departing from the ports to ensure compliance with regulations, including inspecting any unauthorised cargo and personnel on board. All merchant vessels are also subject to inspection during entry and exit from the Turkish Strait. The agreement prohibits attacks on civilian vessels and port facilities involved in the Initiative and mandates remote monitoring of vessel movements. Military ships, aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) are not permitted to approach the humanitarian corridor without JCC authorisation and consultation with all Parties.5
Source: “Resources”, Black Sea Grain Initiative Joint Coordination Centre, United Nations.
Why is it relevant?
The relevance of the Black Sea Grain Initiative can be explained by two contextual factors. First, through an assessment of Russia and Ukraine’s pivotal role in the global food security nexus, making their cooperation vital in ensuring stable and secure food supplies. Second, an assessment of how the absence of this cooperation has significant repercussions, including disruptions in grain exports, reduced global availability, and endangered food security in several nations.
Their role in the food security nexus
Russia and Ukraine are considered “Global Breadbaskets”, as they are significant net exporters of agricultural commodities, including various cereals and oilseeds. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), in 2021, the two countries accounted for almost 30 per cent of global wheat exports and 78 per cent of global sunflower oil exports. In the same year, Russia was the top global wheat exporter, shipping 32.9 million tonnes of wheat and meslin, which is equivalent to 18 per cent of global shipments. Ukraine, meanwhile, was the sixth largest wheat exporter, shipping 20 million tonnes of wheat and meslin, accounting for 10 per cent of the global market share.6 Before the pandemic, they also supplied approximately 20 per cent of the global barley supply and 18 per cent of maize (corn) supply.7 Additionally, Russia is a major stakeholder in the global fertiliser market, being the top exporter of nitrogen (N) fertilisers and the second leading exporter of potassic (K) fertilisers in 2021. It was also the third leading exporter of phosphorus (P) fertilisers in the same year.8
The high levels of exports from Russia and Ukraine reflect a strong global dependence on these countries. Nearly 50 countries depend on them for at least 30 per cent of their wheat imports, with 26 countries sourcing over 50 per cent of their wheat imports from these two countries.9 This heavy reliance is particularly evident in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where countries such as Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Yemen, Tunisia, Jordan, and Morocco are heavily dependent on Russia and Ukraine for their food supply.10 For instance, Egypt imports approximately 70 per cent of its wheat from the Black Sea region. Prior to the conflict, the World Food Programme (WFP) also sourced half its wheat from Ukraine for its distribution programmes.11 The blockade of food exports from the region has had a direct impact on these countries, exacerbating their already fragile food security situation.
Their absence from global food markets
The abrupt exit of two key players from the global food market had a significant impact on food prices, as evidenced by the UNFAO’s food price index which reached an all-time high in March 2022. Averaged at 159.7, the index presented high prices for several commodities, including vegetable oils, dairy and cereals.12 Additionally, fertiliser prices experienced a sharp increase during this period. Global fertiliser prices are estimated to have risen by 199 per cent between May 2020 and the end of 2022,13 which was compounded by production issues and the imposition of trade sanctions on Russian fertilisers, as well as rising energy costs.
The absence of Russia and Ukraine from global food markets must also be contextualised in light of the reality that nearly 828 million people around the world face hunger and malnutrition.14 This is coupled with supply shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic, a declining global food sto upplyocks from the COVID-19 pandemic, a declining global foo"" ere Shortages”, Report, Reuters, 5 2uters,e="" tl f>