Imagining Asia in 2030: Trends, Scenarios and Alternatives

About the Book

Future belongs to Asia. Already a major transition of wealth and power from the West to the East is being witnessed as never before. Asia could withstand the economic Tsunami which engulfed most of the developed world in 2008. Asian powers like China and India are being envisaged as the drivers of the future global economy. On the other hand, Asia is also facing major security challenges. How Asian states continue with the present pace of their economic growth and simultaneously deal with myriad international security threats is an intriguing question for the world at large.

Bringing together a pool of renowned international experts, the book deals with the potential drivers of future change in Asia like economic growth, climate change, demographics, urbanisation, migration, resource competition, technology, military modernisation, globalisation, nationalism and identity politics, radical movements, extremism and terrorism, and great power competition. It not only attempts to describe the future for Asia in 2030, but also offers exciting alternative future scenarios.

Contents

About the Editors/Contributors

Preface

Climate Change, Environment, Energy and Water

1. Climate Change and Implications for Security
—- Stephan Harrison

2. Water Security in Asia 2030: A Look at Indus and Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basins
—- Uttam Kumar Sinha

Economic Growth, Globalisation, Poverty and Equity

3. Relative Growth of Nations: A View in the Mirror of History
—- Nayan Chanda

4. The Siamese Twins: How the USA and China took the World to the Brink of Economic Disaster
—- Mohan Guruswamy

5. State of Critical Infrastructure
—- Adrian V. Gheorghe

Demography, Migration and Urbanisation

6. The Geopolitical Implications of Global Ageing
—- Phillip Longman

7. Population Movement and Diaspora
—- Judith M. Brown

8. Asia’s Urban Futures and its Implications for Security
—- Sarita Azad and Narendra S. Sisodia

9. Pandemics and its Consequences for the Future of Asia
—- Ali Karami

Society, Identity, Religion and Governance

10. Hindu Nationalism, Diaspora Politics and Nation Building in India
—- Catarina Kinnvall and Ted Svensson

11. Religious Trends and Extremism in Asia
—- Bilveer Singh

Transformational Technologies and their Impact on Society

12. Cyber Security Challenges for Asia in a 2030 Time Frame
—- Roland Heickerö

13. Future of Asian Space Powers
—- Ajey Lele

14. Pro-Poor Renewable Technology and its Impact on Society: Decentralised Renewable Energy Technologies
—- David E. Fuente

WMD and International Security

15. The Relevance (or Otherwise) of Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century
—- Pervez Hoodbhoy

16. Asian Security, Chinese and Indian Power and Nuclear Non-Proliferation
—- Sumit Ganguly and David P. Fidler

17. Biological and Chemical Terrorism: Assessing the Threat in Asia
—- Angela Woodward

Asian Militaries and the Future of War

18. Changing Security Threats: Future Asian Armies in 2030
—- Yong-Sup Han

19. Asian Air Power in 2030: Capabilities and Technologies Required for Potential Future Scenarios
—- John P. Geis

20. Asian Navies: Trends Towards 2030
—- Vijay Sakhuja

21. Defence R&D in Asia: Achievements and Future Directions
—- Nabanita R. Krishnan

22. War in 2030
—- Martin van Creveld

Geopolitics in Asia: Country Perspectives

23. The Geopolitics of Asia in 2030: An American Perspective
—- Aaron L. Friedberg

24. China and India: Geopolitical Centre of Asia in 2030
—- Li Li

25. Japan and American Factor in Asia
—- Makoto Iokibe

26. Russia’s Asia Policy in 2030
—- Konstantin Khudoley and Stanislav Tkachenko

Alternative Scenarios

27. The Geopolitics of Asia in 2030 from China’s Perspective and Interest
—- Chien-Peng (C.P.) Chung

28. Hegemony or Balance of Power?: Regional Order and Conflict in a Transforming Asia — —- G. John Ikenberry

29. Is Conflict Inevitable between the Great Powers in Asia in 2030?
—- Namrata Goswami

30. Asian Futures 2030: Global Strategic Trends: Alternative Scenarios
—- Steve Aiken

Contributors

Steve Aiken is lead author and desk office for geopolitics for the United Kingdom’s MoD’s Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC).

Sarita Azad is Project Associate at IDSA, New Delhi, India.

Judith M. Brown is Beit Professor of Commonwealth History, Balliol College, Oxford, United Kingdom.

Nayan Chanda is Director of Publications and the Editor of Yale Global Online Magazine at the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.

Chien-Peng (C.P.) Chung is Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Lingnan University, Hong Kong.

Martin van Creveld is Professor Emeritus at The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel.

David P. Fidler is the James Louis Calamaras Professor of Law and Director of the Center on American and Global Security, Indiana University, Bloomington, USA.

Aaron L. Friedberg is a Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, Princeton, USA.

David E. Fuente is Programme Head for Infrastructure and Governance at the Centre for Development Finance, Chennai, India.

Sumit Ganguly is the Rabindranath Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations, Professor of Political Science, Director of the India Studies Program, and Director of Research for Center on American and Global Security, Indiana University, Bloomington, USA.

John P. Geis is Director, Center for Strategy and Technology, United States Air Force, Montgomery, Alabama Area.

Adrian V. Gheorghe is the Faculty of Power Engineering at the Bucharest Polytechnic Institute, Romania.

Mohan Guruswamy is the Director the Centre for Policy Alternatives, New Delhi, India.

Yong-Sup Han is Professor of Korea National Defense University.

Stephan Harrison is Associate Professor of Quaternary Science, University of Exeter, Penryn, United Kingdom.

Roland Heickerö is Deputy Research Director at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, FOI, Stockholm.

Pervez Hoodbhoy is Professor of Physics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan.

G. John Ikenberry is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School and Department of Politics, Princeton University, USA.

Makoto Iokibe is the President, National Defense Academy, Japan.

Ali Karami is Associate Professor of Molecular Biology at the Research Center of Molecular Biology, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Catarina Kinnvall is Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Lund University, Sweden.

Konstantin K. Khudoley is Dean, School of International Relations, Saint Petersburg State University, Russia.

Nabanita R. Krishnan is currently the Director, Management Information System and Technologies (MIST) at Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) Headquarters, New Delhi, India.

Li Li is an Associate Research fellow at China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), Beijing, China.

Phillip Longman is Senior Research Fellow at the New America Foundation, a public policy institute in Washington, D.C.

Vijay Sakhuja is Director Research, Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), New Delhi, India.

Uttam Kumar Sinha is a Research Fellow at IDSA, New Delhi, India.

Bilveer Singh is Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, National University of Singapore.

Narendra S. Sisodia is Director General of IDSA, New Delhi, India.

Ted Svensson is Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science, Lund University, Sweden.

Stanislav Tkachenko was an Associate Professor of the Department of European Studies at the School of International Relations, Saint Petersburg State University, Russia.

Angela Woodward is Programme Director, VERTIC, United Kingdom.

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