Egypt under Sisi: The Troubled Transition Continues

In June 2013, following severe protests by the people against him, President Mohamed Morsi was ousted by the military led by General Abdel Fateh El Sisi. This led to violent clashes between the supporters of Morsi and the security forces. Many people were killed and a large number injured. Hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood members and supporters were arrested and jailed. Sisi also dismissed the constitution drafted by the Morsi government. These events created further chaos and confusion in the country and regarding the future direction of the revolution. Many believed that the overthrow of an elected President by military is a set back to the revolution and it turns the clock back to the Mubarak-era military dictatorship. Sisi appointed Adly Mansour as the interim president and Hazem Beblawi as the prime minister. The interim government promised presidential elections in early 2014 and Sisi was elected president in May 2014 with a huge margin of 96.9 per cent of the vote.

After the overthrowing of Morsi, the crack down on the Muslim Brotherhood continued. In December 2013, Egypt declared Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organisation and freezed its assets. Later in August 2014 the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), which is the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, was banned. The parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held by end of this year. It is clear that the FJP, which won majority of the seats in parliament in the last election, will not be able to participate in the coming elections. In the absence of the Muslim Brotherhood, the remnants of the Mubarak era are planning to make a come back into mainstream politics. Their coming back to power would be big set back to the idea of revolution in Egypt that had started in the Tahrir Square

After the removal of Morsi, a number Islamist parties united under the banner of the National Coalition for Supporting Legitimacy (NCSL). The alliance labels the overthrow of Morsi by the military as a coup and demands that Morsi be reinstated as the president of Egypt. More recently, the group has been calling for intensifying protests against the government. Though their intention and ability to take part in the forthcoming elections is not clear yet, they will certainly be a major force in Egyptian politics.

The rise of the Muslim Brotherhood to power in the previous parliamentary elections led to apprehensions about the rise of political Islam in the region. This came after the Islamist Ennahada party won a majority in Tunisia. But the overthrow of Morsi by the military has changed the political course of the country. As the Muslim Brotherhood is now banned, the Salafists will be the dominant Islamist elements in the parliamentary elections. During his speech at the United Nations General Assembly on September 24, 2014, Sisi stated that the parliamentary elections would be held this year and that he intends to build a new civil democratic state that would respect freedom of speech and religion. But on the ground, Egypt remains a polarised society and a weak economy whose political elite has failed to build any effective institutions. Though several elections have been held in the post-Mubarak Egypt, none of them have contributed to establishment of a stable democratic political order.

Egypt is one of the important countries in the Arab world and the faltering transition in the postMubarak era will have an impact on the regional geopolitics. Given Egypt’s prominence in the region, the regime change, the coming to power of Muslim Brotherhood and the subsequent overthrow of the Mohamed Morsi by the military has had severe regional repercussions. The victory of the Muslim Brotherhood in the elections prompted the involvement of the regional powers in the developments in Egypt. Qatar, owing to its close ties with the Muslim Brotherhood, emerged as an important player in Egypt during the Morsi regime. But with the removal of Morsi, Qatar has lost that eminence, though it still has tremendous influence over the Muslim Brotherhood.

Saudi Arabia felt sidelined from Egyptian affairs with Qatar playing a larger role and the Morsi regime deciding to build ties with Iran afresh. Saudi Arabia also has substantial influence over the Salafists in Egypt. Though Saudi Arabia announced its readiness to work with Morsi, the past relationship and the ideological differences between them did not allow them to settle down. What irked the Saudis most was Morsi’s move to start afresh a relationship with Iran. A strong relationship between the two important regional players such as Egypt and Iran would certainly not be in the interest of Saudi Arabia. After the removal of Morsi, Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE have pledged over billions of dollars in direct loans and subsidies. Turkey has denounced the overthrow of Morsi by the military. Egypt has accused Turkey of interfering in its internal affairs and both have withdrawn their envoys, thus cutting off regular diplomatic ties.

Qatar and Saudi Arabia have developed a spat over political changes in Egypt. Similarly, SaudiIran relationship has also worsened because of their involvement in Egypt’s political transition. The uncertain political developments in Egypt, which among others, include two ousted presidents, numerous attempts to draft constitutions, experiments with democracy, strong influence of the military in the decision making and so on have been the hallmark of Egyptian transition in the post-Mubarak era and have impacted the regional security situation in the region.

The US is the most important player in the region and has expressed concerns over the developments in Egypt and the region. It has been an important military and economic aid supplier to Egypt. US was seemingly unhappy over the ousting of Morsi by the military as he was the democratically elected president. But there have been constant pressures from its regional allies such as the Gulf countries and Israel seeking support for Sisi as they were wary about the future of Egypt under Morsi. Thus though the US continues its strong ties with Egypt, it presses for reforms, democracy and human rights which are being consistently demanded by the people.

Egypt continues to remain in a state of flux. The process of transition is proving difficult with a number of internal challenges remaining unresolved. With Sisi elected as the president, the military is back in the helm of affairs. In the changed circumstances, there are many questions that remain to be addressed before Egypt moves towards further stability. The aspirations of the youth who protested at the Tahrir Square, the next course of action for the Muslim Brotherhood, the participation of other Islamists in the forthcoming elections and the role of military in the Sisi regime are some of the important issues which need to be resolved for the stability of the country. Sisi believes that the parliamentary elections are the next big step to achieve political stability. It remains to be seen how efficiently he manages to conduct the elections taking all the stakeholders on board. Similarly the role of the regional powers and the US will also be another deciding factor for Egypt’s foreign policy and its role in the region. Sisi needs to deal with a number of powerful regional countries for pursuing his foreign policy objectives and to restore the regional influence of his country. At present there is certainly a huge task ahead of Sisi to chart out the future roadmap and navigate through this difficult phase of Egypt’s transition.