Türkiye’s Foreign Policy Under The AKP: Implications and Challenges for India

About The Book

During the first two decades of the twenty-first century, besides the structural factors namely geography, history, politics, international system and the world order, five conjunctural factors dominated Turkish foreign policy behaviour and conduct. These include the Strategic Depth (Stratejik Derinlik) doctrine with ‘zero-problem’ with neighbours embedded in it followed by the Blue Homeland (Mavi Vatan) doctrine focused on enhancing Türkiye’s maritime presence in its immediate neighbourhood and the periphery. Thirdly, and arguably the most important, is the personality of Recep Tayyip Erdogan who as a dominating figure in contemporary Turkish politics has shaped not only the political discourse but foreign policy praxis. Erdogan’s personalised style of interventions has undoubtedly had a profound impact on Ankara’s interactions and engagements with the wider world. Finally, pan-Islamism and neo-Ottomanism are two important drivers in Turkish foreign policy and were visible notably in the Middle East and North Africa region and came into prominence in the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings. In this context, it is pertinent to ask what are Turkish foreign policy ambitions and how do these impact India? Given that Ankara has expanded its presence, or at least is striving to expand it, in the geographically contiguous Southwest Asia region that connects India to the Middle East, the question how Indian foreign policy should view Türkiye becomes even more important. The bilateral challenges between India and Türkiye make it even more pertinent for Indian scholars and policymakers to take a deep and hard look at Türkiye’s foreign policy doctrines and praxis. This book is an attempt in that direction. It systematically analyses the structural and conjunctural factors in Turkish foreign policy and notes that Türkiye’s foreign policy is embedded in a glorified identification of the past, both Ottoman and Kemalist, and in its geographical location as a multi-regional actor. However, the foreign policy ambitions are limited by Türkiye’s economic performance and political sliding. From an Indian viewpoint, the book identifies Pakistan as a limiting factor so far as the bilateral relations are concerned and recommends that New Delhi should use economic leverage and diplomacy to de-hyphenate the Pakistan factor.

About The Author

Md. Muddassir Quamar is Associate Professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies in Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi. Until March 2023, he was Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi. Dr. Quamar specialises in Middle East strategic affairs, political Islam, and India’s relations with the region. Among other issues he is interested in society, politics and foreign policy of Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. Dr. Quamar has authored and edited several books, published research articles in reputed academic journals and contributed chapters in edited volumes on contemporary developments in the Middle East. He serves as Associate Editor of the Contemporary Review of the Middle East (Sage, India) and served as Book Review Editor of Strategic Analysis between July 2018 and March 2023. In 2014-15, he was a Visiting Fellow at the King Faisal Centre for Research and Islamic Studies in Riyadh.

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Contents

Acknowledgements

1. IntroductionForeign Policy PrioritiesTürkiye in the Middle East and South Asia

   Implications for India

   Definition, Rationale and Structure

2. The Glorious Past: Ottoman and Kemalist Consciousness The Ottoman EraLegal Frameworks Political Structures

   Economic and Trade Links

   Society and Culture

   War and Peace

   End of the Empire

3. The Kemalist EraPolitics and Foreign Policy Economic and Social Issues

   Türkiye and World War II

   Conclusion

4. Discovering the Self in a Bipolar and a Unipolar World Foreign Policy during the Cold WarDeterminants External Relations

   Post-Cold War Recalibration

   Internal Political Churnings

   Impact of the External Environment

   Adjusting to Global Politics

   Middle Power Aspirations

   Conclusion

5. Breaking the Mould: Foreign Policy in the Twenty-First CenturyDomestic TransitionsDeterminants of Foreign Policy under the AKP

   Strategic Depth

   The Blue Homeland

   Erdogan’s Personality

   Pan-Islamism

   Neo-Ottomanism

   External Relations

   Relationship with Traditional Partners

   Relations with other Global Powers

   Neighbourhood and Beyond

   Conclusion

   Strategic Overreach: Türkiye and MENA

   Incentives for a Change in Approach

   Economic Imperatives

   Political Aspirations

   Systemic and Regional Factors

   Improvements in Ties, 2002–10

   Syria

   Iraq

   Egypt

   The GCC States

   Iran

   Israel and Palestinians

   Jordan, Lebanon and the Maghreb Countries

   Arab Spring and Strategic Overreach

   Intervention in Syria

   Confrontation with Egypt

   Involvement in Tunisia

   Interference in Libya

   Türkiye in Iraq

   Challenging Saudi Arabia and Competition with the UAE

   Partnership with Qatar

   Problems with Iran and Israel

   Economic Crisis and Regional Reconciliations

   Conclusion

6. Turkish Foreign Policy and Implications for IndiaIndo–Turkish RelationsEfforts to Improve Political Contacts

   Hope for Improved Relations

   Derailment and Heightened Tensions

   Commercial Ties

   Türkiye–Pakistan Relations

   Political Convergence

   Islamic Solidarity

   Geopolitical Stirrings

   Commercial Relations

   Security and Defence Cooperation

   The Turkish Challenge for India

   Bilateral Issues: The Pakistan Factor and Kashmir

   Regional and Systemic Challenges

   Policy Recommendations for India

   Conclusion

Index