IDSA Asian Strategic Review 2008

ABOUT THE BOOK

IDSA Asian Strategic Review 2008, the second volume in the series of Annual Surveys revived by the Institute in the previous year, is divided into six sections. The first section, on international security, discusses some significant developments in the Asian security landscape, while taking stock of the persisting, unresolved concerns. The issues covered include space security in the aftermath of China’s anti-satellite test of 11 January 2007, energy security in the face of galloping oil prices, the growing concern regarding climate change, an evaluation of the current state of the global war on terror, and the evolving situation in Iraq, the safety of Pakistan’s strategic assets, and an assessment of the Sixth Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention.

The next section focuses on the theme related directly to India’s security concerns. Accordingly, India’s strengthened partnerships with the United States and Russia, its ocean security in the backdrop of capacity additions to its Navy, India’s Look East policy with imperatives for Northeast security and India’s acknowledged most pressing internal security challenge, the Maoist insurgency, are analysed in depth.

During the period under review, a number of countries in South Asia—like Pakistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh— have experienced a process of political transition. Clouds of anxiety and uncertainty still hang over some of these processes. Afghanistan remains politically unstable and mired in violence. The ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka is degenerating by day without much hope for a viable political solution. Section III deals with these intricate issues of regional turbulence and underlines implications of them for India’s own security and stability.

Section IV contains two articles dealing with strategic trends in Central Asia and the growing strength of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The next section on East Asia and the Asia-Pacific region contains chapters assessing the implications of China’s Seventeenth Party Congress, an analysis of the relationship between Hu Jintao and the PLA, an examination of Myanmar’s internal politics, Myanmar in the China-India equation, political developments in Japan after the end of Shinzo Abe’s prime-ministerial term, and the challenges confronting the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN).

At the end of this volume, Statistical Appendices provide useful data, charts and tables relating to Asia’s defence and energy sectors.

CONTENTS IN DETAIL

Contributors
Preface
N.S. Sisodia
Introduction
S.D. Muni

I
International Security: New Dynamics and Persisting Concerns

1. 1. Asian Space Race
      — Ajey Lele
   2. Resource Nationalism and the Global Oil Market
      — Shebonti Ray Dadwal
   3. Asia and Climate Change
      — Uttam Kumar Sinha
   4. Taking Stock of the Global War on Terror
      — Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
   5. ‘Troop Surge’ and After: Is There an Exit Strategy?
      — S. Samuel C. Rajiv
   6. Pakistan’s Strategic Assets: Global Concerns
      — Rajiv Nayan
   7. The 6th BTWC Review Conference: A Year Later
      — Monalisa Joshi

II
India in Focus: Strengthened Partnerships,
Rising Profile and Internal Challenges

1. 1. India and the US: Beyond the Nuclear Deal
      — Cherian Samuel
   2. India’s Strategic Partnership with Russia: Old Friends, New Focus
      — Nivedita Das Kundu
   3. Naval Sealift Capability and India’s Ocean Security
      — Gurpreet S. Khurana
   4. Eastern Neighbourhood: Is the North Eastern Region on Board?
      — Namrata Goswami
   5. Trends in India’s Maoist Movement
      — P.V. Ramana

III
South Asia and Beyond: Transformational Issues

1. 1. Pakistan: Uncertain Transition to Democracy
      — Ashok K. Behuria
   2. Top-down Democratic Evolution in Bhutan
      — Nihar Nayak
   3. The Bangladesh Military: Power without Accountability
      — Sreeradha Dutta
   4. Building a New Nepal: Pains of State Restructuring
      — Smruti Pattanaik
   5. The ‘Eelam War IV’: Tigers in Crisis
      — M. Mayilvaganan
   6. Democratisation of Maldives: A Challenging Roadmap
      — Alok Bansal
   7. Afghanistan: Divided Defenders of Democracy
      — Vishal Chandra

IV
Central Asia: Economic Weaknesses and
Security Dilemmas

1. 1. Strategic Trends in Central Asia
      — P. Stobdan
   2. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: Acquiring New Punches
      — Meena Singh Roy

V
East Asia and the Asia Pacific:
New Agendas and Political Transitions

1. Myanmar’s Political Players
   — Udai Bhanu Singh
2. Myanmar in the China-India Equation
   — Ranjit Gupta
3. China’s 17th Party Congress
   — Abanti Bhattacharya
4. Hu Jintao and the PLA
   — Raviprasad Narayanan
5. Political Transition in Japan
   — Arpita Mathur
6. ASEAN at 40: Groping for a Direction?
   — G.V.C Naidu

VI
Statistical Appendix

A-1. Top 25 Defence Spending Nations in Asia, Including Australia and New Zealand
A-2. Armed Forces Personnel, Top 25 Defence Spending Nations in Asia, Including Australia and New Zealand
A-3. Major Platforms and Equipment Inventories: Top 20 Defence Spending Nations in Asia, including Australia and New Zealand
A-4. World Nuclear Forces: Warheads, Delivery Systems, and Ranges (in km)
A-5. Major Conflicts in Asia, Insurgent/Terrorist Groups, Fatalities, Current Status, 2007
A-6. Top 15 Energy Producers in Asia (2005)
A-7. Top 15 Energy Consumers in Asia (2005)
A-8. Challenges of Democratisation in India’s Neighbourhood

CONTRIBUTORS:

Alok Bansal
Research Fellow, South Asia, IDSA

Ashok Behuria
Research Fellow, South Asia, IDSA

Abanti Bhattacharya
Associate Fellow, East Asia, IDSA

Vishal Chandra
Associate Fellow, South Asia, IDSA

Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
Associate Fellow, US, Europe and Nuclear, IDSA

Shebonti Ray Dadwal
Research Fellow, Energy Security, IDSA

Sreeradha Dutta
Research Fellow, South Asia, IDSA

Namrata Goswami
Associate Fellow, Internal Security, IDSA

Ranjit Gupta
Senior Visiting Fellow, IDSA

Monalisa Joshi
Researcher, Modeling and Net Assessment, IDSA

Gurpreet Khurana
Research Fellow, Military Affairs, IDSA

Nivedita Das Kundu
Associate Fellow, Russia, and Central Asia, IDSA

Ajey Lele
Research Fellow, Modeling and Net Assessment, IDSA

Arpita Mathur
Associate Fellow, East Asia, IDSA

M. Mayilvaganan
Associate Fellow, South Asia, IDSA

S.D. Muni
Senior Visiting Fellow, IDSA

G.V.C. Naidu
Professor, Centre for East Asian Studies, JNU, New Delhi

Raviprasad Narayanan
Associate Fellow, East Asia, IDSA

Nihar Nayak
Associate Fellow, South Asia, IDSA

Rajiv Nayan
Research Officer, US, Europe and Nuclear, IDSA

Smruti Pattanaik
Research Fellow, South Asia, IDSA

S. Samuel C. Rajiv
Researcher, US, Europe and Nuclear, IDSA

P.V. Ramana
Research Fellow, Internal Security, IDSA

Meena Singh Roy
Research Fellow, Russia and Central Asia, IDSA

Cherian Samuel
Associate Fellow, US, Europe and Nuclear, IDSA

Udai Bhanu Singh
Research Officer, East Asia, IDSA

Uttam Kumar Sinha
Research Fellow, Non-Traditional Security, IDSA

N.S. Sisodia
Director General, IDSA

P. Stobdan
Senior Fellow, West Asia, Central Asia and Africa, IDSA

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