The End of the Somali ‘Transition’ and the Challenges Ahead

August 20, 2012 marked the end of the extended term of the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia, a devastated country where anarchy has been a way of life since the fierce civil war began in 1991. With the election of a new parliament1 , speaker and a new president, the Transitional Federal Government expired. A new provisional constitution has been adopted which will be subjected to a referendum as and when the situation allows. No major power or the international organisation involved in Somalia to promote peace, stability, or otherwise wished to extend the ‘transition’ further. Although the conditions were not conducive for a fully democratically elected government, the international community involved therein has settled for one that is ‘more democratic’ than the earlier one. Currently, the new government appears to be better than the erstwhile Transitional Federal Government that was alleged to have indulged in rampant corruption and nepotism, and thus losing legitimacy.

The United Nations (UN), the African Union (AU), the European Union (EU), the United States, the Gulf States, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are the important international forces present in Somalia. Ethiopia and Kenya are involved because of their own internal compulsions, contingencies, and regional ambitions. Turkey has also made a visible entry into Somalia while China plans to harvest the natural resources of the country.

The multinational military operations coordinated among AMISOM, Somali, Ethiopian, and Kenyan forces against Al-Shabab2 (the extremist Islamist group that controls large parts of Southern and Central Somalia) have been stepped up after the end of the ‘transition’. The country is at a critical juncture as the gains made against the extremists have not yet been fully consolidated and secured. Any mistake or miscalculation may reverse the process. Both the leadership and the people are ambivalent regarding the direction that politics may take in the future. Events in the country are unfolding at a tremendous pace post-transition, with Al-Shabab being pushed out from its strongholds, one after another. The September 28 capture of the Kismayo port city3 , the last important stronghold of Al-Shabab in Southern Somalia, has proved to be a turning point. The city fell in an operation conducted primarily by the Kenyans in coordination with AMISOM forces. Smaller towns and rural areas are also being cleared of AlShabab control.

Due to the retreat of Al-Shabab and the gradual advance of the Somali and international forces to take control of the smaller towns in Somalia, the hope for peace and positivity is at the highest since the civil war began. The UN and the world community have realised that it is time to make a final push to root out Al-Shabab and take Somalia out from the threat of other extremist groups like the AlQaeda. One ‘transition’ has ended and the other, fragile, but great transition, from anarchy to stability, has just begun. The new government in Somalia has to deal with several challenges to sustain it.

Nationalism: Somali nationalism has many problems both from within and outside. Many scholars doubt whether Somalia is a nation at all. However, the Kenyan and Ethiopian roles in South and Central Somalia should also be seen in the light of Somali nationalism and ‘Greater Somalia’. These two countries are independently intervening in Somalia, explicitly to defend their own boundaries and people. Kenya sent thousands of its troops into Somalia to secure its tourism industry, livestock imports, and export of Qat4. In fact, according to some reports, Kenya wanted to create an autonomous peaceful buffer state of Jubaland to secure its planned port of Lamu from Somali gangs and pirates.5 Kenya has a long standing issue with the translation of Somali nationalism into ‘Greater Somalia’ which includes parts of Kenya and Ethiopia. There are groups in the north eastern province of Kenya which may wish to unite with Somalia. The Ogadeen region in eastern Ethiopia has a history of insurgency and demands of union with Somalia. Ethiopia, viewed by the Somalis as an aggressor throughout history, has also cited the protection of its people and territory from the Somali terrorists as the reason for intervention. The majority of people in both these regions of Kenya and Ethiopia are Somali in ethnicity and therefore the issue of ‘Greater Somalia’ may emerge and become a bone of contention in the region once the Somali state stabilises.

Territorial Integration: Though the Somali government is demanding to be treated as a ‘viable state’6, the territorial ambiguities of Somalia remain. Somaliland and Puntland are formidable challenges to be dealt with. Somaliland is a self-proclaimed independent state unrecognised by the international community, while Puntland is an autonomous and relatively peaceful region with an independent administration. Though Puntland does not claim independence from Somalia, the terms and degree of its autonomy will have to be negotiated for its integration within Somalia.

Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama’a, a Sufi militia fighting against Al-Shabab, controls parts of central Somalia and there are several other patches of autonomous or pseudo states in southern Somalia. Due to the lack of any central authority, these regional and local administrations have become very important and act like independent states. The integration of these regions is going to be a big challenge.

Challenge to sovereignty and autonomy: Somalia may emerge as a new ‘banana republic’. The UN, the US, the European Union, Gulf states, Turkey, and others have invested so much in Somalia that they may exercise a powerful influence on the country’s political and economic future.7 In fact, the country cannot run without the financial and military assistance of external powers.

Peace and reconciliation: The hard task before the new government would be the reconciliation of the Somali population that has borne the brunt of a long civil war, famine, a shattered economy, and displacement. It “is still facing one of the largest humanitarian crises in the world, with 1.1 million people who have been internally displaced and more than one million that live outside the country as refugees.”8 Therefore, state-building, establishing institutions for the delivery of the basic state services will require huge effort and investment which will definitely take some time.

Political culture: Somalia is known for its culture of violence and guns in the politics between different tribal clans of Somalia. This may prove to be the greatest drag in the whole process of integration, peace and development, as has been the case many times before. It can only be hoped that the long time distress of the people and trauma of the civil war and famine has forced the Somali political elites to realise the value of peace and democracy. Only an umbrella concept of a Somali nation, protected by a democratic state can provide a united and sustainable Somalia. This is very critical as the primary loyalty of the people in Somalia is towards their clans, rather than anything else. The state would require a huge and sincere effort to direct the loyalty of Somali people to a central authority in any form.

There is always a fear of Somalia again descending into chaos once the external forces leave its soil or they stop their financial and military assistance – as the Somalis neither have the resources nor capacity to face these challenges alone. Therefore, the international community has taken several steps to meet these challenges and the Grand Stabilisation Plan for South Central Somalia introduced by the IGAD includes: promoting political reconciliation, establishing local administration, developing integrated national security capacities, establishing rule of law and delivering the necessary assistance to communities in need. The IGAD joint committee which signed an MOU with the Somalia Federal Government to work closely with its institutions has been expanded to include Somalia as well.9

Somalia is so vulnerable a region that it requires continuous vigilance by the international community. Though the country has a great strategic location, it has never been given much importance until the threat of Islamist terrorism and piracy in the Gulf of Aden, the Indian Ocean, and the Arabian Sea. The international community intervened in Somalia to prevent the spilling over of the problems in the form of humanitarian crises, piracy, and terrorism. Now, due to the collective efforts of the international community on the seas and Somali land area, the piracy has come down significantly. With improving security conditions in Somalia, the regional and extraregional powers have also increased their diplomatic exchanges with it. The new Somali president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has visited many regional and extra-regional countries to gather support and assistance for the crucial fight against terrorism and for meeting future challenges. There is a collective international effort to bring about stability, but its history with its neighbours and the divisions within may haunt Somalia’s future. However, the factors that will remain crucial for making a ‘viable Somalia’ will be the plans for its reconstruction, and policies for developing a sustainable economy because these will have the onus of keeping Somalia in the radar of the international community.

• 1. Note: There were no general elections for the Somali parliament and government. The parliament and the constituent
  assembly were elected by the tribal elders from among those recommended by a committee. Later, the members of the
  parliament elected a speaker and the president. The president has appointed a prime minister to run the government.
• 2. Al-Shabab is said to have links with Al-Qaeda
• 3. “Kenya urges world to help consolidate gains made in Somalia”, Hiiraan Online, October 20, 2012, at http://
  www.hiiraan.com/news4/2012/oct/26452/kenya_urges_world_to_help_consolidate_
  gains_made_in_somalia.aspx
• 4. Qat is an evergreen plant that is used as stimulant. People in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula chew qat
  leaves as part of their age old customs or otherwise.
• 5. “More but not merrier”, The Economist, November 28, 2011, at http://www.economist.com/blogs/baobab/2011/
  11/ethiopia-kenya-and-somalia
• 6. “What Next for United States in Somalia?”, UNPOS, December 6, 2012, at http://unposomalia.tumblr.com/
• 7. “Will president Mohamud be able to tame Somalia?”, BBC News, September 11, 2012, at http://www.bbc.co.uk/
  news/world-africa-19556377
• 8. “UN launches $1.3 billion appeal for humanitarian needs in Somalia”, UN News Centre, December 4, 2012, at http:/
  /www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=43674&Cr=somalia&Cr1=#.UO6VCqw3kzM
• 9. The IGAD Joint Committee earlier consisted of Ethiopia and Kenya.