Libya’s political process: Delicate progress, gigantic challenges

In the last few months of 2018, there was some significant and tangible progress in the Libyan political process. The major players in the Libyan political spectrum came to the negotiating table with the active mediation of UN and some other international actors. Since the UN-mediated Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) was signed in December 2015, there have been two major political factions controlling Libya. One is the Tripoli based government of Fayez Al Sarraj which is recognised by the UN and some members of the international community; and the other is the Tobrouk- based government in the East that is backed by General Khalifa Haftar with the Libyan National Army. The presence of two parallel, competing and self-proclaiming governments with their own armed militias is a major hindrance in the process of transition in Libya.

Militia and terror groups creating hindrances

There are several militia groups actively operating across Libya and they are formed on the basis of their ethnicity, tribal and regional affiliations. The southern part of the country has become particularly vulnerable and is infested with militia groups as they find a conducive atmosphere in the absence of a legitimate central law enforcement authority. Some militia groups from the neighboring countries are also operating in that region. This renders the southern international boundary violated; and a large swath of Libya’s southern territory falling into the hands of the armed militias who indulge in illegal and criminal activities. Besides, terrorist groups such as ISIS and Al Qaeda have also found a safe haven in the south. Continuing instability has created a breeding ground for the terrorist groups in the country. The militia and terrorist groups not only present a hindrance to the political process but also create an atmosphere of deep insecurity and instability by often indulging in bloody clashes among themselves and attacking public and private property and institutions.

Negotiations between rival factions

In an effort to break the political stalemate, a meeting with the key stakeholders was held in Paris in March 2018. Key Libyan leaders such as Prime Minister Fayez Al Sarraj; General Khalifa Haftar, the president of the House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh; and the head of the council of state, Khaled Al Mishri participated in the conference. This was facilitated by France with many other countries and UN representatives participating in the discussions. The Paris meeting became the icebreaker between the governments of Tripoli and Tobrouk. In the meeting, the leaders agreed to hold the Parliamentary and Presidential elections on December 10, 2018, and more importantly, to accept the results of the election. They also agreed for unification of the central bank, establishing a unified national army and abolishing parallel governments and institutions.

In November 2018, another meeting was convened in Palermo, Italy, with the mediation of Italy. In the Palermo conference also key leaders Fayez Al Sarraj, Khalifa Haftar, Aguila Saleh and Khaled Al Mishri participated in the meeting along with representatives from around 20 countries and the UN in attendance. Though nothing more emerged from the meeting, it turned out to be another confidence building exercise in the fragile Libyan political process. All the parties reiterated their support for holding elections, to respect the election results, reunification of financial and security systems and so on. As result of continuous engagements, Khalifa Haftar has indicated not to attack Tripoli until such time as elections are held. Also, both factions came to the negotiating table and agreed to participate in the transition process in a democratic manner. This in itself is a major breakthrough in the Libyan political process.

UN and the Libyan National Conference

Apart from its efforts to bring the political leaders to the negotiating table, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has also engaged with the general populace of Libya by facilitating the Libyan National Conference. During the consultative phase of the conference, several meetings were held in different parts of the country from April to July 2018 where people from different sections of the society participated and shared their views on the key issues facing them. A wide range of suggestions and opinions have been collected from the consultations with the citizens and the final phase of the conference is scheduled to be held in early 2019 before the parliamentary and presidential elections are held.

The crucial 2019 elections

As per the Paris meeting, parliamentary and presidential elections should have been held in December 2018. But unregulated violence and armed conflict hindered creating a favorable atmosphere for holding the elections. The elections are now deferred to 2019. The 2019 elections to a large extent will determine the future political course of Libya. Importantly, the High National Elections Commission (HNEC), which is in charge of managing the elections, has received support from both the political factions. The HNEC has already started its preparations for holding elections in early 2019. As a favorable security environment is a necessary condition for the polls to take place, holding elections in the presence of terrorists and militia groups remains the major challenge for Libya. While the UN and several other members of the international community are working in the direction of conducting a peaceful election and subsequent transition of power to one central authority in Tripoli, the vested interests of the various political and militia groups in the country are the main hurdles on the way.

Challenges that remain

While the political process is delicately poised and is making slow progress, there remain gigantic challenges to surmount. The main issues of contention among the different groups are sharing of political power, fight for control over Libya’s huge petroleum resources, and accommodating the armed groups loyal to different factions into a unified national military force. Thus, forming a unified central political authority, fair distribution of national wealth and legitimate security and military establishments under one civilian political authority would need to be achieved in the aftermath of the elections. Building consensus among the Libya’s fractured political leadership on these critical issues to rebuild the country remains the foremost challenge for the Libyan political process. The progress made so far, as a result of the various meetings and negotiations among the parties, represents a unique opportunity for Libyan leaders to restore peace and stability in the country. Derailment of elections or backtracking from the agreements achieved by parties at the Paris and Palermo meetings would severely jeopardise all the efforts made in the direction of political transition and stabilisation.

Dr. Prasanta Kumar Pradhan is Associate Fellow, West Asia Centre, IDSA.