Strategic Analysis

The paper attempts to analyse the issues in Central Asia in the context of India’s security. The paper poses a question as to what the region of Central Asia means for India today. The author argues that international attention is being focused on redefining the importance of Central Asian in the changing regional and international context. Since its reappearance, many suitors have been seeking affinity, proximity and legitimacy with the region on political, strategic, cultural and economic grounds.

• P. Stobdan |
• January 2004 |
• Strategic Analysis

The paper presents initial results from a limited exercise to apply Social Network Analysis (SNA) methodology to the database on terrorism created in IDSA called Terrorism Tracker (or T2).

• Sudhir Saxena , K. Santhanam , Aparna Basu |
• January 2004 |
• Strategic Analysis

Washington-Tehran relations have come to occupy centrestage in the recent months given the United States’ current preoccupation with the Middle East. The US-Iran association can be traced back to 1953, when the CIA organised a coup to oust the elected government of Mohammed Mossadeq. Since then, the US has never really disengaged itself from the one of the most strategically important Middle East nations. This paper attempts to identify current US concerns regarding Iran and explores the possibility of a US offensive against Iran similar to that in Iraq.

• Parama Sinha Palit |
• January 2004 |
• Strategic Analysis

The paper discusses Track II Diplomacy between India and the United States with a special focus on the post-1998 period. Its scope is limited to Track II deliberations that have relevance to foreign policy issues. An effort has been made to assess the efficacy of Track II exercises on the basis of certain parameters developed for this study.

The findings of the study are based on the responses received from some experts in this field in India during direct interviews with them. Thus, the paper provides an Indian perspective.

• Bhabani Mishra |
• January 2004 |
• Strategic Analysis

The 9/11 attacks on the US have forced the Americans to believe that the US secret service agencies are helpless against the attacks of the committed suicide squads. These attacks and the subsequent happenings in Afghanistan and Iraq have not only removed the illusion of post-Cold War peace, but also heightened uncertainty and insecurity in the world. ‘Operation Iraqi Freedom’ has given a clear message to the countries of the world that the US can go to any extent to protect its national interests even if the mandate of the world community is against such actions.

• Annpurna Nautiyal |
• January 2004 |
• Strategic Analysis

The sectarian divide between the Sunnis and Shias in Pakistan has widened since the 1980s. The rising tide of sectarian violence during Musharraf’s rule (October 1999-till date), in spite of bans and restrictions imposed on sectarian outfits and elements by the administration, suggests that the two sects have drifted further apart.

• Ashok K. Behuria |
• January 2004 |
• Strategic Analysis

The psychological dimension of a conflict is as important as its physical dimension and psychological Operations (PSYOPs) have become even more relevant in this age of information, especially for a nation-state where the threat in the socio-psychological domain is more pronounced. While combating the menace of terrorism, the psychological dimension assumes great significance, as terrorists use violence as a psychological weapon by terrorising the multitude, rather than physically affect a few, and in this sense, they fight a psychological war also.

• Sunil Narula |
• January 2004 |
• Strategic Analysis

The essay defines Pakistan’s brazen retailing of sensitive nuclear technologies as Bomb Process Outsourcing (BPO) and places it in a larger perspective. It offers a short retrospective of the development and manufacture of nuclear weapons by the P-5 in which significant manpower and materials were ‘foreign’. This is true of the programmes of Israel, Iraq, South Africa, Argentina and Brazil as well. Pakistan, has now, contributed to North Korea, Libya and Iran.

• K. Santhanam |
• January 2004 |
• Strategic Analysis

• Keki N. Daruwala |
• January 2004 |
• Strategic Analysis

Shri N N Vohra, Shri K Santhanam, Director IDSA, Ladies and Gentlemen:

• Ved Marwah |
• October 2003 |
• Strategic Analysis

The article critically looks at relevance of the US alliance system in the Asia-Pacific in the context of the changing nature of threats and challenges that the U.S. is confronted with in the light of American military intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq. The paper argues that the American policy in Asia, which so far has been premised on bilateral alliances and forward deployment, is likely to undergo fundamental changes because the principal partners, South Korea and Japan, may not be very useful either in counter-terrorism efforts or low-intensity wars.

• G.V.C. Naidu |
• October 2003 |
• Strategic Analysis

Assam, one of the seven states of the northeastern region of India, has long remained one of the most volatile and sensitive regions in the country because of the problems of insurgency, ethnic conflict, pressure of migration, underdevelopment etc. Bodos, the largest plains tribe of Assam started an armed struggle for a separate state in the mid-1980s. This armed struggle led to ethnic cleansing of the non-Bodos along the north bank of the Brahmaputra.

• Manoj Kumar Nath |
• October 2003 |
• Strategic Analysis

The Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) moves on the wheels of Technology, Doctrine and Organisation; however, the main support structure, which gives it the predominant strength, is undoubtedly the technology. The changing concepts of warfare are driven by the available technology of the times. While sophisticated weapons and sensors have greatly enhanced combat efficiency, developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) have enabled greater connectivity and information sharing among widely spread force components.

• Shitanshu Mishra |
• October 2003 |
• Strategic Analysis

Military innovation is peculiar and distinctive, and has no direct parallels. The military environment itself, with focus on hierachy, discipline and tradition makes innovation a daunting challenge. The process is further influenced by civil-military relations and metrics used for measuring effectiveness of innovative efforts. Factors influencing the process of military innovation vary when examining innovation at the policy and strategy level, at the doctrinal level, during peacetime and under conditions of war.

• Girish Luthar |
• October 2003 |
• Strategic Analysis

The United Nations was founded on the principles of sovereign equality of its member states. The sovereignty exercised by states in their domestic jurisdiction and external relations was to be upheld in the conduct of international relations especially through the UN. However, the recent developments culminating in the United States-led war in Iraq have raised several doubts about the efficacy of the UN in preserving the sovereignty of its member-states while maintaining international peace and security.

• Tasneem Meenai |
• October 2003 |
• Strategic Analysis

The demand for an infallible missile and homeland defence against anticipatory threats from adversarial state actors as well as amorphous non-state actors has become accentuated in the US in the post-9/11 era. In consonance, the importance of anti-missile defence shield has grown in primacy and has witnessed a changing orientation to an amalgamation of an integrated Layered Defence System. However, the two main question on the development of such a system are whether it will reach a meaningful completion and whether such a system will be cost-effectived.

• P. K. Ghosh |
• October 2003 |
• Strategic Analysis

The 3rd India-Central Asia Regional Conference was jointly organised by the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi and the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies (ISRS) at Tashkent during November 6-8, 2003. Fifty participants from about 20 countries participated in the Conference. Representatives from organisations like the World Bank (WB), European Union (EU), European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) also participated. Uzbek Foreign Minister Mr.

• Ramakant Dwivedi |
• October 2003 |
• Strategic Analysis

• Nivedita Das Kundu |
• October 2003 |
• Strategic Analysis

Events in Iraq in the last decade, especially the invasion of Iraq by the United States and its allies (the so-called Coalition of the Willing) in 2003, have shaken the basis of the international system which has governed interstate relations since the end of the Second World War in 1945. In the Middle East, the lack of faith in the multilateral institutions set up after that War, has intensified.

• S. K. Bhutani |
• October 2003 |
• Strategic Analysis

This paper is an attempt to understand the enigma that is globalisation. The paper relies on the global capitalism approach, which locates the dominant global forces in the structure of an ever-more globalising capitalism. It deals with the role of neo-liberal globalising forces in the field of global economics; global politics and the role of ideology of consumerism in transnational cultural ideological practices.

• Atul Bharadwaj |
• July 2003 |
• Strategic Analysis