Strategic Analysis

Indo-Pak Relations and the SAARC Summits

The uncertainties regarding regular SAARC meetings have clouded the prospect of regional cooperation. Though India has been accused as the main culprit, other member-countries are no less responsible for the organisation’s lack of progress.

Iranian Nuclear Programme and Pakistan: Implications of the Linkages

Against all odds, Iran is pressing hard to prove its nuclear innocence and keeping its promises under the provisions of the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The US is refusing to go along with Iran’s denials on violation of the NPT commitments. At the same time, the Bush Administration seems determined to stop the spread of nuclear weapons beyond Pakistan to other Muslim states. However, the facts emerging out of the probe into the A.Q. Khan episode and the international grey nuclear market indicate significant patterns of concealment and duplicity even by the NPT signatory states.

Nepal: Quest for Elusive Peace

Amidst the continuously expanding sphere of Maoist influence, political uncertainties and growing international interest, Nepal continues to remain one of the most volatile countries in South Asia. Recent developments have, once again, reconfirmed that while the Maoists have been successful in gradually pushing their agenda through violence and intimidation, the four-party coalition government led by Sher Bahadur Deuba is increasingly finding it difficult to evolve a coherent strategy to counter it.

Attack on Sheikh Hasina

On August 21, 2004, a little before 5.30 in the evening, there was a grenade attack on the Awami League leader, Sheikh Hasina Wajed. This occurred soon after she concluded her speech in a public rally close to the Awami League headquarters in Dhaka, which ironically was held to protest the recent grenade attacks in Sylhet. 11 of the 13 grenades hurled at the rally exploded instantly followed by indiscriminate firing fortunately missing the target, Sheikh Hasina, as she was hurriedly escorted into her bullet-proof car. The impact left 18 dead and hundreds wounded.

The 9/11 Report: Reaffirming Pakistan-Terrorism Nexus

The 585-page National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States Report that investigated the plot, design and circumstances leading to the 9/11 attacks on the US has highlighted the dangers of organised terrorism in threatening global peace and security. The same threat has been reiterated in the recent Beslan tragedy in Russia. It is clear that terrorism has acquired global dimensions and has emerged as a fundamental concern for the international community.

Import of 9/11 Against Beslan Backdrop

Beslan, till recently an unknown small town in Russia, has become the latest ‘victim-symbol’ in the global pattern of terrorist violence. The manner in which innocent young children were slaughtered on September 3 marks a reprehensible low even by the standards of the terrorist. The death toll at the time of writing this comment is in excess of 350 and still climbing. The shocking and gruesome Beslan images that repeatedly screamed across millions of television screens the world over were reminiscent of the enormity of 9/11 three years ago.

Kurt M Campbell et. al., The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices

The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices.

Cryptology, Digital Assassination and the Terrorism Futures Market

A recent news item indicated that the US Government had been planning a website that would enable people to place bets on the likelihood of terrorist events. It was hoped that a study of market trends would enable intelligence agencies to anticipate and prevent such events.

Proliferation Security Initiative: An Assessment

Proliferation of WMDs is a grave threat to mankind, be it their flow to ‘irresponsible states’ or to terrorists. Charged by its perception of vulnerability, the US has initiated the Proliferation Security Initiative; seeking involvement of ‘key’ states for interdiction of ‘suspect ships’ at sea. In its present form, PSI is contrary to the principle of ‘Freedom of the Seas’. Further, its operational efficacy is doubtful and it has an escalatory potential. However, bilateral arrangements as an extension of PSI may lawfully supplement global non-proliferation efforts.

Energy and Security in a Changing World

The centre of gravity of global economic growth is rapidly shifting to the Asian continent. The transition is led by China and India which have propelled themselves onto a robust growth trajectory to be fuelled by affordable energy supplies. These developments have been accompanied by a fortuitous but significant growth in the sources of global energy supply, thanks to the re-emergence of Russia as the new petrostate and the discovery of substantial energy deposits in the Caspian and Central Asian Republics.

Pakistan’s ‘Sustainable Democracy’: Army as the Political Architect

Any study of political developments in Pakistan cannot be complete without examining the role of the Army. Though it might seem incompatible to talk of military and democracy in the same breadth, Pakistan provides an example of how the military has been able to govern the country as successfully as a civilian government. It has its own view of democracy, political stability and governance. It feels it has a political role which stems from the national security paradigm of the state.

Military Diplomacy Through Arms Transfers: A Case Study of China

Military diplomacy has long been one of the essential constituents of international diplomacy and an effective method to foster bilateral and regional relationships. Arms transfers serve as an important foreign policy tool and have become, a crucial dimension of world politics. Conventional arms transfers entail not only the provision of weapons/ equipment but carry with them a number of military commitments that have long?term implications. The PLA has always had a significant role in shaping and implementing China's foreign policy.

The Terror Scenario in Europe

Suicide bombings in Jammu and Kashmir are patterned on Palestinian methods established that those actually originated in Europe and thus added an intriguing component to the Indian terror scenario. Mainly, the European intelligence agencies have closely observed the terror scenario in Europe as an international phenomenon, its causes, ramifications as well as the recruitment procedure.

Whither the Look East Policy: India and Southeast Asia

India’s policy with Southeast Asia, which took a distinctive shape since the early 1990s in the form of the Look East policy, has been a multipronged approach encompassing political, strategic and economic aspects. Apart from establishing institutional linkages with ASEAN and strengthening bilateral relations with its member states, especially in the field of defence, India has been an enthusiastic participant and supporter of multilateralism in Asia-Pacific.

Indo-Pakistan Talks 2004: Nuclear Confidence Building Measures (NCBMs) and Kashmir

After six years, in June 2004 India and Pakistan resumed the composite dialogue process that covers eight baskets of issues agreed upon in Male in 1997 between Prime Minister Inder Kumar Gujral and Nawaz Sharif. The eight baskets are Jammu and Kashmir; Siachen; Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project; Sir Creek; Terrorism and Drug Trafficking; Economic and Commercial Cooperation; Peace and Security; and Promotion of Friendly Exchanges in various fields. The last round of talks was held in October 1998 in Islamabad, on Peace and Security, CBMs and Jammu and Kashmir.

Karbi-Kuki Clashes in Assam

Militant groups clashing among themselves for control over the public resources even at the cost of the rights of the local tribal or ethnic community they claim to be defending, is an important factor behind persistent inter-ethnic conflicts

The Fallacy in the Russia-India-China Triangle

Much has been said about the India-China-Russia strategic triangle, a post- Cold War idea mooted by former Russian Premier Yevgeny Primakov.

Sudarshan Bhutani, A Clash of Political Cultures: Sino-Indian Relations (1957-62)

A Clash of Political Cultures: Sino-Indian Relations (1957-62) by Sudarshan Bhutani. Roli Books, New Delhi. 2004 282 p. Price Rs 450/- (HB)

Border Management: Dilemma of Guarding the India-Bangladesh Border

India shares 4096 km (Assam-262 km, Tripura-856 km, Mizoram- 18 km, Meghalaya-443 km, West Bengal-2,217 km) long land boundary with Bangladesh (earlier East Pakistan). The Indo-Bangladesh border, which came into existence after India’s partition in 1947 gave rise to many questions as to the interpretation and implementation of the boundary so drawn. An effort was made to solve the outstanding border disputes with erstwhile East Pakistan and the Nehru-Noon Accord was signed in 1958. While some of the disputes were solved, many continued to haunt even after Bangladesh came into existence.

N. S. Jamwal |
January 2004 |
Strategic Analysis

Operationalising the Gorshkov: An Appraisal

The paper takes a critical look at various issues connected with India’s acquisition of the Russian aircraft carrier, the Admiral Gorshkov. It examines India’s choice of fighter and various problems it is likely to face in making the carrier operational and fully effective for its task. It recommends the early acquisition of aerial refuelling and early warning systems by the Navy. The paper also argues for greater jointmanship among the services and an increase in specialist cross-postings in order to improve inter-service rapport and the pool of trained manpower.

R. Sukumaran |
January 2004 |
Strategic Analysis