Strategic Analysis

There are embryonic signs that Washington is all set to turn the heat on Myanmar. In a marked departure, UN Security Council unanimously agreed on December 2, 2005 to a US request for a “one-off” briefing by Secretary-General on “the deteriorating situation” in Myanmar. The US request followed Tatmadow’s extension of Aung San Suu Kyi’s (ASSK) house arrest and General Assembly Committee’s recent approval of a resolution condemning human rights in Myanmar.

• P. Stobdan |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

The inaugural East Asian Summit (EAS), touted as groundbreaking, commenced on December 14 in Kuala Lumpur comprising 16 nations— the 10 ASEAN countries, China, Japan, India, Australia and New Zealand with Russian President Vladimir Putin making a special appearance. The EAS Declaration, like many issued before in the region, is wide-ranging: from political and security cooperation, infrastructure development, financial issues, further liberalisation of regional trade and investment, poverty eradication to fighting epidemics. Nonetheless, inter alia, three points need underscoring.

• G.V.C. Naidu |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

A series of bomb blasts in Delhi on October 29, 2005, that left 66 dead and 220 injured has, once again, underlined the acute vulnerability of major Indian cities to international terrorism. The blasts in Sarojini Nagar, Paharganj and a Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC) bus in Govindpuri were well-orchestrated, nearly simultaneous, and targeted crowed markets and city centres.

• Sanjay K Jha |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

The thrice postponed Afghan parliamentary and provincial council elections are finally over. But, is the Bonn-mandated political process over? With the US intent on cutting down its troop levels in Afghanistan this year, is the ‘war on terror’ in Afghanistan also over? It is being said that the Bonn process has concluded with the September 18, 2005 elections. If so, then it is pertinent to examine the end-result of the four-year political process and the recently concluded elections.

• Vishal Chandra |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Moscow from December 4-6, 2005 highlights the continued importance of Indo-Russian cooperation in a changing geopolitical scenario. Beginning with President Vladimir Putin’s first visit to India in October 2000, bilateral summits between the Indian Prime Minister and the Russian President, alternatively in each other’s capital, have become an annual feature. In contrast, President Putin’s predecessor, President Boris Yeltsin visited India only once, in January 1993.

• Jyotsna Bakshi |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

Niall Ferguson, Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire (Penguin Books, New York, 2005), pp. 386.

• Deba R. Mohanty |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

I welcome this opportunity to present to such a distinguished audience some views on issues relating to nuclear non-proliferation and international security. At the outset, I would like to thank the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) for inviting me to deliver this address. The Institute has a well deserved reputation as our premier strategic think tank and quite appropriately, they have focused on a subject that not only has a strong contemporary relevance but represents a long term challenge for India and the international community.

• Shyam Saran |
• July 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

In recent years, Africa has emerged as a hot spot for energy sources. The reopening of the oil sector in Sudan and the oil discoveries in West and Central Africa has made this possible. There is a growing argument that oil breeds instability in the African and other oil-rich developing countries across the world. While oil wealth has led to an increase in conflicts in Africa, particularly in the case of Sudan and Nigeria, the rising energy demand is pushing major US, European, Chinese and Malaysian oil companies to invest in African oil.

• Ruchita Beri |
• July 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

Bangladesh’s relations with India are multi-dimensional - ideological, political and also economic. An extreme sense of distrust, insecurity and perceived domination by India has shaped Bangladesh’s foreign policy in recent years. It at the same time, hesitant and finds it uncomfortable to function within a bilateral parameter. Whether it is trade, export of gas, provision of transit or the water issue, Bangladesh has argued for multilateral arrangements.

• Smruti S. Pattanaik |
• July 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

Since the events of March 1971, Bangladesh has seldom been free from violence. While much of the recent attention revolves around religious extremism and militancy, political violence, as this paper argues, is a larger problem for Bangladesh. At every level of society, Bangladesh has had to confront with acts of violence. Lack of governance impedes the polity from effectively controlling violence, organised and unorganised, against different sections of society.

• Sreeradha Datta |
• July 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

Understanding the inner dynamics influencing the ongoing process of economic reform in China, especially the flexibility achieved by government bureaux is important for strategic policy makers in India. The brief study seeks to determine the relationships of dominance, correspondence, and contradictions as well as the direction of influence, the sequencing between government bureaux, and the end results of their joint operations by applying the micro-macro linkage approach.

• Raviprasad Narayanan |
• July 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

The post-Cold War period saw North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) being expanded not once but twice. In foreseeing the security threats of the 21st century, NATO is seeking to recast its strategic response. The EU and the US are united in their opinion about the need for a stronger and cohesive NATO, and a wider out-of-area role for the alliance. If both the sides start working together and address future challenges, it may bring about a ‘symbiosis’ in the Atlantic Relationship.

• Prasad P. Rane |
• July 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

India’s September 24 vote in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supporting the resolution moved by Britain, France and Germany (EU-3) on Iran’s nuclear programme has a raised a significant debate within the strategic studies community on the value and wisdom of the policy stance.

• Sujit Dutta |
• July 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

In a significant turn of events, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on September 24, 2005, adopted a resolution (22-1 with 12 countries abstaining) calling upon Iran to accelerate its cooperation with the Agency in terms of revealing its ‘secret’ nuclear programme failing which the issue will be referred to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).1 Althoug

• Manish |
• July 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

The massive destruction caused by the earthquake in India and Pakistan has thrown up huge challenges of rescue, relief and rehabilitation. The magnitude of the destruction means that reconstruction and rehabilitation in the affected areas is going to be a long process. There are reports that the death toll in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Northern Territories could cross 50,000. The losses in India have been comparatively less, and despite the huge difficulties of terrain authorities have effectively engaged in overcoming the effects of the tragedy.

• Sumita Kumar |
• July 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

Israel has finally pulled out from the Gaza strip and parts of the West Bank marking an end to 38 years of illegal occupation of the territory. Israel occupied this land, known as the Occupied Territories, (OT) after winning the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. However, this pullout, under what is known as the unilateral disengagement plan, originally conceived by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, has deeper implications and wider ramifications than simply returning the occupied land to the Palestinians.

• Tanya Mohan |
• July 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

While the efforts of ONGC-Videsh and Indian Oil Corporation are laudable, there is still some distance our firms have to travel to catch up with global competition. I urge our oil and gas PSUs to think big, think creatively and think boldly in this context…They have to be more fleet-footed in making use of global opportunities, both on the supply and demand side, I find China ahead of us in planning for the future in the field of energy security. We can no longer be complacent and must learn to think strategically, to think ahead and to act swiftly and decisively.

• Shebonti Ray Dadwal , Uttam Kumar Sinha |
• July 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

“Think of Afghanistan and a plethora of images whiz past the mind’s eye .

• Poonam Mann |
• July 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) – which has dominated Japanese politics for the past fifty years, swept the recent snap polls called by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in August this year. The outcome of the elections has significant implications for Japan’s domestic as well as foreign policy. The extraordinary mandate that Koizumi received established him as the undisputed leader, giving him the green signal to move ahead with his proposed reforms. The LDP garnered as many as 296 out of the 480 seats in the Japanese Diet’s Lower House.

• Arpita Mathur |
• July 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

China’s maritime territorial claims, and its diplomatic and military measures to attain them, have caused much regional concern in recent years. The expansive maritime sovereignty claims of China in the South China Sea flow from three key goals: the completion of its incomplete nationalist project of territorial consolidation and unifying the state; the desire to control the contested maritime periphery; and the garnering of sea-based resources such as oil and gas that have assumed critical importance for fuelling the economy of a rapidly modernising China.

• Sujit Dutta |
• April 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis