Strategic Analysis

Iran Standoff: Repercussions for the Global Oil Market

The pressures on Iran to roll back its uranium enrichment programme have increased with the UN Security Council imposing harsher sanctions and Washington indicating that it is even ready to carry out military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. The Iranian leadership, on the other hand, continues to claim that its nuclear programme is peaceful and is essential for producing electricity and helping economic development to meet the needs of a growing population.

Indo-US Defence Cooperation and the Emerging Strategic Relationship

The most visible manifestation of a strategic relationship between two countries is cooperation in the defence sphere. When the Defence Framework Agreement was signed in June 2005, it was widely assumed that the Agreement provided a skeleton that would be fleshed out over a period of time.

India and the Proliferation Security Initiative: A US Perspective

The article considers why New Delhi has shied away from full participation in the US-led Proliferation Security Initiative despite compelling national interests in improving Indian maritime forces and cooperating with the United States at sea. Some factors examined are polarized domestic politics, Indians' ambivalence about non-proliferation arrangements that formerly targeted them, and New Delhi's desire for regional primacy. Until Indian leaders come to believe that the benefits of PSI participation outweigh its drawbacks, they will continue to hold the initiative at arm's length.

Navigational Freedoms in a Time of Insecurity

Navigational freedoms have increasingly come under restrictions because of ecological, economic and security concerns of coastal states. Fishing vessels, oil tankers, ships carrying ultra-hazardous nuclear cargoes and even military vessels have to conform to stringent international, regional and national regulations. Often there is a conflict of interest as maritime activities of one state can interfere with the efforts of others to utilise the sea. The Law of the Sea Convention was adopted to provide a balance among these competing interests.

Geopolitics of Power Trading in South Asia: Opportunities and Challenges

It is now generally accepted that energy security could be significantly enhanced through sustained cross-border exchanges in many regions. In South Asia, however, regional energy security cooperation has seriously remained entangled in geopolitics. The possibility of overexploitation of natural resources such as coal, natural gas and oil reserves and the low level of political confidence in sharing hydro resources have placed serious obstacles to enhancing the level of energy security in the region.

Chinese Nationalism and the Fate of Tibet: Implications for India and Future Scenarios

Chinese nationalism primarily represents Han nationalism and ignores ethnic minority sub-nationalisms and identities in the larger cause of the state's unity and integrity. The Chinese state calls for submerging of all minority identities within the predominant Han identity, for promoting national cohesion and nationalism, effectively precluding the possibility of the assertion of Tibetan nationalism and autonomy. Because of the suppression of Tibetans in China, a large number of them have fled and settled in India and elsewhere.

Radical Islamic Organisations in Europe: South Asia in their Discourse

In the European security calculus, terrorism has become one of the key strategic threats. Alarmingly, the continent has also become a centre of radical Islamist propaganda and activism, with a number of European countries worried over the potential of their own 'home-grown' religious extremists. Latest studies indicate a disturbing trend of a section of the youth, generally belonging to the Muslim communities of West African and South Asian origin from a poor or middle class socioeconomic background, embracing extremism and terrorism in Europe.

The Naga Narrative of Conflict: Envisioning a Resolution Roadmap

The Naga narrative of dissent is a longstanding issue afflicting India's Northeast. Though attempts are being made to resolve the issue through peaceful dialogue between the Union Government and the resistance groups, earlier peace agreements such as the Nine Point Hydari Agreement and the Shillong Accord failed to garner support from all the different Naga tribes. The local fault lines are also playing a destabilizing role in the current peace process with tribal loyalties transcending group loyalties.

Environmental Degradation: Unearthing the Past for Future Longevity

Soft Borders and Cooperative Frontiers: India’s Changing Territorial Diplomacy Towards Pakistan and China

For decades, the dominant sense in the foreign policy establishment of India was that neither the Kashmir question nor the boundary dispute with China was ripe for resolution. Yet, in defiance of this received wisdom, two very different political coalitions have opened and sustained substantive negotiations on Jammu and Kashmir and the boundary dispute with China. Forward movement in both negotiations has also been premised on opening the closed frontiers with China and Pakistan.

Counterproliferation: India’s New Imperatives and Options

Despite its excellent record in the field of non-proliferation of technologies, know-how and equipment related to weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to other states, India has been essentially a passive actor in global non-proliferation initiatives. As a result, it does not as yet have a comprehensive framework or strategy within which it defines its anti-proliferation objectives.

Who Won the Second Israel-Lebanon War?

In the immediate aftermath of the Second Israel-Lebanon War, most observers have concluded that Israel lost its war against Hezbollah. Although at the end of 34 days of violent engagement there is no clear victor or loser, this article, on the contrary, argues that Israel succeeded in achieving the most important among its political and strategic objectives.

NATO’s Counter-Terrorism Strategies in Afghanistan

With the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) taking over command from the US-led Coalition Forces in southern Afghanistan and the United States focusing on the eastern part of Afghanistan, particularly along the border with Pakistan, crucial questions have arisen regarding securing Afghanistan and its transition to democracy. How will NATO perform its new responsibilities and what will be its counter-terrorism strategies?

Sudan Crisis: Exploring India’s Role

India's interest in Sudan has grown significantly in recent years. This is reflected in India's increased trade and investments in Sudan. Two factors that have generated such interest and encouraged Indian engagement are the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in January 2005 and the soaring economy. However, delay in the implementation of the peace deal and conflict in western and eastern Sudan pose serious challenges to the huge Indian interest. This paper examines India's role and interest in the context of the ongoing crisis in Sudan.

Nivedita Ray |
January 2007 |
Strategic Analysis

Japan’s Contemporary Nationalism: Trends and Politico-Security Drivers

Contemporary Japanese nationalism is the principal force behind Japan's gradual shift towards 'normal' statehood and what has been called as 'reluctant realism'. The nature and content of this nationalism is, however, very much dissimilar to that which characterized its militarist past. This nationalist streak is largely elitist and assumes softer undertones as it percolates down to the masses.

Security of Sea Lines: Prospects for India-Japan Cooperation

Ensuring access to crude oil and natural gas forms a crucial component of India's security calculus. It also critically underlines the significance of sea transportation through which much of these vital resources are traded. With India virtually insular in terms of its land communications, its trade interests are increasingly focused on the maritime domain.

Ballistic Missile Defence: Perspectives on India-Japan Cooperation

Both India and Japan have evinced interest in deploying defences against ballistic missiles because of the threat they pose. Significantly, both have shifted their stance on US Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD), from previous opposition to active support. Notwithstanding certain basic differences between India and Japan on the nature and degree of interest and participation at present, shared interests offer an opportunity for them to cooperate with each other on the BMD issue to further consolidate the 'strategic partnership' understanding they have evolved.

G.V.C. Naidu |
January 2007 |
Strategic Analysis

The General’s Delusion

Sumita Kumar |
January 2007 |
Strategic Analysis

Understanding How Religion Becomes Evil

Challenges in Defence Planning

Defence planning is essentially a subset of overall national level planning in the political, economic and social spheres and has to be evolved in the context of global and proximate factors affecting the nation. . It has also to take into account the philosophy and ethos animating the national psyche; in other words the historical and cultural forces which have shaped the collective memory and outlook of the people over the centuries.