Strategic Analysis

A Founding Era for Combined Maritime Security?

In a nutshell the article posits that American naval power, and thus the United States' ability to police the seas, will continue to decline, and that Washington is attempting to compensate by fashioning a new paradigm of multinational maritime security. With no likely candidate for a global navy in the offing the challenge is to create one or more multinational guarantors of free navigation. I attempt to gaze into the future, discerning the likely dynamics of this coalition-building project.

Towards a Proactive Military Strategy: ‘Cold Start and Stop’

The article reviews the Cold Start doctrine in light of the limited war doctrine. It argues that the launch of strike corps entails a risk prone war expansion. War termination should therefore be short of the launch of strike corps offensives. It suggests a 'Cold Start and Stop' strategy with limited offensives by integrated battle groups being used to coerce Pakistan. Pakistani amenability to Indian war aims would be dependent on India offering incentives diplomatically alongside. India's limited war doctrine, currently not articulated, must be informed by such a war waging strategy.

Japan’s New Defence Guidelines: An Analysis

During the entire post-World War II period Japan isolated itself from the ongoing power struggle. Even during the height of the Cold War when its two neighbours – the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China – went nuclear, Japan followed the three principles of ‘not possessing’, ‘not introducing’ and ‘not manufacturing’ nuclear weapons. Successive Japanese parliaments also passed resolutions putting a one per cent GDP cap on defence spending and imposed a blanket ban on arms exports and arms-related technologies.

Afghan Reconciliation Falling Through

Various reports on ‘Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan’ produced by the US Department of Defense, 2010 (in coordination with some other departments) have struggled to paint an optimistic picture of the Afghan situation, to maintain the morale of the troops. However, a tacit admission that the Afghan War is not going anywhere can be deciphered from the cautious language used in these reports.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards: Ideological But Not Praetorian

The role of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has come under an increasing spotlight in recent years. This scrutiny has intensified in the wake of the controversial June 2009 presidential elections and the unrest which followed. Western governments, in tandem with the more radical sections of the Iranian opposition, appear keen to construct a narrative wherein the IRGC steadily displaces the ruling clergy as Iran's political masters. Fears of a growing political role for the IRGC – let alone a full-blown military takeover – are overstated.

India’s Nuclear Energy Programme: Prospects and Challenges

India has announced ambitious plans to expand its nuclear energy programme nearly 15 fold in the next 20 years, from the current 4,500 MWe to about 62,000 MWe by 2032. By 2020, India's Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) plans to install 20,000 MWe of nuclear power generation capacity (the fifth largest in the world). The department has plans beyond 2030 too. According to these plans India will have the capacity to produce 275 GWe (Giga Watt of electricity) of nuclear power by the year 2052.

Pakistan: Crisis is Inherent

On March 23 every year a ritual is performed in Pakistan: observation of Pakistan Day. Forty-two years ago on this day, the Muslim League, which then was 34 years old, adopted a resolution in Lahore demanding separation of Muslims from India. The president of the League, Mohammad Ali Jinnah, expounded a theory that Hindus and Muslims were two different nations.

Living Weapons: Biological Warfare and International Security by Gregory D. Koblentz

Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London, 2009, pp. 256, $35, ISBN 978-0-8014-4768-6

Makers of Modern India by Ramchandra Guha

Penguin Viking, New Delhi, 2010, Rs. 799, ISBN 9780670083855

India and China – Neighbours, Strangers by Ira Pande

(ed.), HarperCollins, India 2010, Rs. 699, ISBN 978-81-72223-960-2

The Frugal Superpower: America’s Global Leadership in a Cash-Strapped Era by Michael Mandelbaum

PublicAffairs, New York, 2010, pp. 213, ISBN 978-1-58648-916-8

Confronting Terrorism by Maroof Raza

(ed.), Penguin Viking, India, 2009, pp. 201, Rs. 450, ISBN 9780670083695

Averting Armageddon

It is a little-known fact that Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru of India had proposed a ‘standstill agreement’ to prohibit the further testing of nuclear weapons as early as 1953. In effect, it was an initial step toward a comprehensive ban on the testing of nuclear weapons with the aim of their eventual elimination. That goal, of course, has proven to be quite elusive. Despite the conclusion of a Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963, pursuing a comprehensive test ban remained a chimera as new nuclear powers entered the global arena and a spate of nuclear tests ensued.

Kashmir: The Problem, and the Way Forward

There is an overwhelming sense of déjà vu in Kashmir today. This could have been deemed tiresome but for the grave implications it has for us as a nation, and as a people. We are now used to long cycles of violence interspersed by political ennui or tokenism and the ubiquitous ‘economic package’ which only serves to open up newer avenues for corruption in a state orphaned by history and politics for over six decades.

Empowering the Kashmiris

Insurgencies as well as popular unrests are generally rooted in political, social and economic deprivations, which in turn lead to the alienation and estrangement of a community. A popular sentiment seeking the empowerment of Muslim Kashmiris has been in existence for the past five centuries. History is replete with instances of the political deprivation and poverty of Kashmiri people during periods of their subjugation by the Mughals, the Pathans, the Sikhs and later the Dogras. Kashmiri alienation took firm roots during the Dogra rule (1846–1947).

Autonomy in Jammu and Kashmir

The demand for autonomy in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) followed by heated discourses on the subject has been appearing and fading intermittently. The demand as well as discourses, articulated by particular parties in the state, receives equal responses from political parties and analysts at the national level. In fact, the subject has acquired sharp political overtones over a period of time.

Addressing Kashmir

The spate of rioting which plagued Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) from June 2010 is testimony to the mismanagement of developments by both the state and central governments. This is all the more unfortunate as near normalcy had been established in Jammu and Kashmir following the November 2008 elections and the downtrend in insurgency through 2009 and early 2010.

Public Diplomacy in India’s Foreign Policy

The last few years have witnessed an incredible change in global communications as well as politics. The proliferation of 24/7 news channels, the spread of the Internet and the ready availability of mobile phones with digital cameras are having a profound impact on the international media and on the manner in which governments formulate their media strategies. At the same time, global issues like terrorism, climate change or even multilateral trade negotiations have come to be closely intertwined with the domestic political agenda.

West Asia and Oil Politics

Today hardly any part of the world is untouched by the interplay of oil and international politics. Consumers as well as producers are concerned about the impact of national and international events that increase or restrict the supply of energy. Given that the West Asian region holds the world's largest residual oil and gas resources, the article seeks to analyse the importance of West Asia in the context of the changing geopolitical situation and its impact on the current oil market. The article also focuses on the issue of the petrodollar and looks at its impact on the oil market.

Taking the Arms Control Debate Forward: The Hague Code of Conduct and India

This article evaluates the opportunities associated with The Hague Code of Conduct (HCoC) for India. HCoC is a stand-alone agreement against ballistic missile proliferation. Since the 1974 Pokharan nuclear tests it has been tricky for India to get into the non-proliferation mainstream. The success of the 2005 Indo-US nuclear deal is a first step towards global acceptability of India's non-proliferation and disarmament policies. Now, it is important for India to start supporting the international norms which do not affect their strategic programmes.

Ajey Lele |
March 2011 |
Strategic Analysis