Strategic Analysis

Chinese foreign and domestic policies cannot be understood without understanding the evolving nature of Chinese nationalism. Bhavna Singh's book on Chinese nationalism deals with this issue in a detailed manner. The Communist Party of China (CCP) has relied heavily on the notion of patriotism, which overlaps that of nationalism, for domestic and international legitimacy. All eyes are on the leadership transition in China and its implications for the world. It will be interesting to see how the new leadership deals with the growing nationalistic sentiment in the country.

• Arvind Gupta |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

Christopher Snedden, The Untold Story of the People of Azad Kashmir, Hurst & Company, London, 2012, xxi + 435 pp., £50, clothbound, ISBN 97818490041508

• Priyanka Singh |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

The ‘Arab Spring’ is the popular rejection of the political and economic scenario that has prevailed across the Arab world from Morocco to Yemen over the last 100 years. In the post-colonial era following the Second World War, country after country in Asia, Latin America and, recently, in Africa moved towards establishing a democratic political system.

• Talmiz Ahmad |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

Myanmar's complexity makes it difficult to find agreement on its multiple facets. What makes it doubly confounding is that the country is passing through a phase of transition. My initial article on this transition has triggered some interesting responses. This shows how reality on the ground is variously interpreted depending on the background of the observer and the special expertise and experience they bring to bear on it. Approaching a subject as interesting as Myanmar from different angles hopefully succeeds in providing a multi-dimensional and more rounded perspective

• Udai Bhanu Singh |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

Myanmar's reforms have generated much debate among scholars, both inside and outside the country. One of the key questions asked is: do the changes in Myanmar signify a real transition? There are good reasons to doubt the genuineness of the transition because the change was initiated by a military regime that had ruled the country for decades. The military has ensured its role in the transition by guaranteeing seats to the military in parliament and many of the ‘civilian’ leaders in the new government were until recently military officers. I agree with Dr.

• K. Yhome |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

Dr. Udai Bhanu Singh astutely raises multiple questions in his article in order to trigger a debate. But his take on today's Myanmar is evident from the first paragraph (‘This time the change that is occurring is substantive, not cosmetic’) and the last paragraph (‘Myanmar is poised for change; incremental change will surely gather momentum once the dithering ends’). I hold a different perspective on the country's internal politics and external relations, which is reflected in the analysis.

• Rajiv Bhatia |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

1. In general terms, it is my impression that the author is far too optimistic about what recent changes in Myanmar can lead to. Power is still in the hands of the military and there is precious little a small group of National League for Democracy (NLD) assemblymen and women (seven per cent of the total) can accomplish. Besides, the November 2010 election was blatantly rigged, and there is no guarantee that the next election, in 2015, will not also be tampered with.

• Bertil Lintner |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

Dr. Singh's article summarises parts of Myanmar's reform process. However, he misses out the historical background that led to the current reforms and he does not unpack some of the more complex factors in this process. This critique/response will try to complete the picture of the three top priorities of the Myanmar government: national reconciliation, ethnic peace and economic reforms.

• Marie Lall |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

Myanmar is in the midst of a phase of historic transformation, both in the domestic sphere and in its external relations. This time the change that is occurring is substantive, not cosmetic. The direction of the change has been largely established, although the pace could depend on the actual circumstances.

• Udai Bhanu Singh |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

Mahinda Rajapaksa has emerged as perhaps the only Sri Lankan leader who has managed to secure some strategic autonomy in conducting his country's foreign policy vis-à-vis India. He engaged India effectively during the military campaign against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and simultaneously countervailed India by improving his country's relationship with India's traditional adversaries such as China and Pakistan. In the post-LTTE scenario, he has maintained a defiant posture vis-à-vis India over the latter's persuasion to evolve a political solution to the ethnic issue.

• Ashok K. Behuria , Gulbin Sultana |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

The ‘ethnic question’ in Sri Lanka, even after the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), evokes a sense of suspense, uncertainty and even a possible conflict of interest in the otherwise robust and multifaceted relationship between India and Sri Lanka. The article adopts a multi-agent model derived from the positional analysis and identifies three principal agents in Indo-Sri Lanka relations—the Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL), the Government of India (GoI) and Tamil Nadu.

• Amali Wedagedara |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

The Arab Spring was ignited by an undeniable human security goal of achieving freedom from want, freedom from fear and freedom to live in dignity. This article analyses how human security concerns have figured in the Arab Spring and shaped its course.

• Mohammed Nuruzzaman |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

Over the last two decades Kazakhstan has implemented foreign policies aimed at improving relations with many new geopolitical actors, as well as longstanding common partners such as Russia, on which it was formerly heavily dependent. By utilising its huge hydrocarbon production potential, Kazakhstan has managed to surpass all other Central Asian states in political and economic importance. Kazakhstan has now turned its eyes to China, seeing it as an important and powerful partner in the economic, political and security spheres.

• Richard Rousseau |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

The Arctic ice is melting faster than predicted. In August 2012, calculations based on the satellite imagery indicated that the summer sea ice loss was 50 per cent higher than earlier estimates. 1 Scientific evidence now suggests that the Arctic, by the middle of the century, will be ice free in the summer. Scientists call it the ‘Arctic amplification’—the reduction in the ice cover not only reduces the reflection of the sunlight but also increases the absorption of heat as the darker water is exposed.

• Uttam Kumar Sinha |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

Since the Islamic Revolution, Iran and the United States have been locked in a bitter conflict. Although it has not yet degenerated into a war, as has been the case with some international conflicts, isolation of the Islamic government has become the basic objective of US foreign policy towards Iran. US policymakers maintain that economic sanctions can force the government of Iran to change its policy on many international issues.

• Mahnaz Zahirinejad |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

The community of scholars needs to study Kautilya's Arthasastra and apply his concepts to political theory and other fields of enquiry, such as intelligence, internal security, war, foreign policy, sociology, political psychology, law, accounting and management. In the past, scholars had to memorise the sutras. This may not be possible now given the declining knowledge of Sanskrit. However, this is no longer a hindrance. The first ever English translation of the text was carried out by Shamasastry, but there are now other English translations of the Arthasastra such as that by R.P.

• P. K. Gautam |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

The basic point is that crude oil is a finite resource. Hence, the issue is not ‘if’ crude oil peaks and availability declines, but ‘when’ it peaks and starts its decline. Peak oil is the theoretical point in time at which oil production peaks and begins to fall. Here we refer only to peaking of conventional oil.

• S.C.N. Jatar |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

The power blackouts on 30 July 2012, first in north India and again in north, north-east and eastern India, which plunged seven northern Indian states into darkness for several hours, disrupting normal life, underline the critical state of the country's energy security. Apart from the discomfort and inconvenience to residents, several essential services such as water supply, city transport systems (including the metro and national railways), mining, health and banking and financial sectors, came to a standstill for hours.

• Shebonti Ray Dadwal |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

One cannot deny the inexorable advantage that geography has given Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). Being the only link between the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) and Pakistan, PoK is truly the ‘umbilical cord’—a bond that is symbolical of the very deep relationship between the two countries. The PRC has at various forums asserted that it only has an economic interest in PoK and has openly denied the presence of People's Liberation Army (PLA) personnel in PoK.

• Mandip Singh |
• January 2013 |
• Strategic Analysis

In the two decades since the end of the Cold War, the Islamic Republic of Iran has emerged as one of the two most debated, contested and commented upon foreign policy issues in India. The other has been the US. The US has remained the pre-eminent global player, following the disintegration and demise of the USSR. Despite its preference for multi-polarity, India, like many other countries, had to recognise the new US-dominated world order and calibrate a policy that was radically different from the one it followed during the Cold War era.

• P. R. Kumaraswamy |
• November 2012 |
• Strategic Analysis