Strategic Analysis

China Unplugged! Poised to Reshape the Geopolitics of the Asia-Pacific

Within the first year of Xi Jinping’s elevation to the presidency, China has moved further ahead on its path to achieving primacy in the world. In the last week of November 2013, Beijing imposed an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the conflicted Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, much to the consternation of its feuding neighbours such as Japan and South Korea. Their howls of protest found expression in the US attempt to challenge China to promulgate what it has done in deed.

China 2013: One Year Rule of President Xi Jinping—An Assessment

It is a matter of widespread belief that on assumption of supreme power, Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s overall ambition was to emerge as an iconic figure in the same league as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. At the very outset, Xi realised this would necessitate the elimination of any political challenge and his first step was therefore to consolidate an unassailable position within the Standing Committee of the Party Politburo (PBSC). To achieve this objective, Xi chose to emulate some of the policies and methods of the late Mao Zedong, albeit with modern underpinnings.

Special Editors’ Introduction

The 21st century is witnessing a renaissance of civil nuclear energy, particularly in Asia. At the same time, this century is also witnessing a rise in acts of terror, using newer and more lethal tools. The attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001 and other terror incidents have forced the international community to pay more serious attention to the possibility of terror groups using weapons of mass destruction (WMDs).

Nuclear Terrorism

Criminals attempt to steal a missile submarine and fire its nuclear warheads at a big city.

The Role of Nuclear Forensics in Nuclear Security

The purpose of the nuclear security regime is to prevent, detect and respond to nuclear security events (e.g. illicit trafficking of nuclear material or a nuclear terrorism attack). Nuclear forensic analysis is a key technical capability that utilises signatures inherent to nuclear or other radioactive material to provide information on its source, production and history. It can be used as part of the response to the nuclear security event, as well as to help prevent it. Section I of this article will introduce the basic information about nuclear forensic analysis.

Sensitive Nuclear Information: Challenges and Options for Control

This article starts by discussing sensitive nuclear information and how malicious non-state actors could exploit this to facilitate acts of nuclear terror. Our analysis shows that there is a significant information security challenge in this area due to the diversity of sensitive information, the different communities within which it resides and the range of mechanisms by which it could be transferred. We then turn our attention to assessing different steps that could be taken to protect sensitive nuclear information.

The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism Requires Concerted Action

The threat of nuclear terrorism should not be underestimated because it can have catastrophic effects if and when realised. Nor should the subject matter be politicised beyond a certain point because of its strong espousal by the United States, which has raised suspicions about whether the issue could be used as yet another instrument for asserting American hegemony. Institutionalisation of multilateral actions must therefore be supported and nuclear summit meetings must become the forums for addressing the doubts and concerns relating to the international initiatives.

Nuclear Security Summit Process: An Indian Perspective

The third Nuclear Security Summit will be held in The Hague, Netherlands in March 2014. This visionary nuclear diplomacy will be facing both old and new questions at its third meeting. The basic question relates to the future of the summit process, which has made a significant contribution to international security in a very short span of time. The summit process, however, may serve it better, and the strengthening of the regime must be continued through the next two summits. However, with or without the summit process, the nuclear security regime has to be strengthened.

Roadmap for Success of the Nuclear Security Summits and Beyond

The Nuclear Security Summits are at a midway point but have not yet reached their full potential of eliminating weak links in the global nuclear security system. The first two summits, in Washington and Seoul, have had a beneficial impact by identifying common objectives, galvanising international action and reducing stockpiles of vulnerable nuclear materials. However, improving nuclear security governance is an important new issue. It could be introduced at the 2014 summit in The Hague and be a springboard for action at the 2016 summit in the US.

Nuclear Terrorism: Assessing the Danger

This article attempts to make a realistic assessment of the danger of nuclear terrorism. While acknowledging the catastrophic consequences of an act of terrorism employing either an improvised nuclear device or a violent attack against a nuclear installation causing spread of lethal radioactivity, it also highlights the complexity of the challenges likely to be confronted by any would-be nuclear terrorist.

The Fissile Materials Working Group: A Case Study of How a Civil Society Group Can Impact Fissile Material Policy

Security experts the world over agree that nuclear terrorism is one of the greatest threats to international peace and security in the 21st century. Since the end of the Cold War, there have been more than 20 confirmed cases of the illicit or unauthorised trafficking of fissile materials. Fissile material for more than 100,000 additional nuclear weapons is spread across the globe.

Nuclear Security, the Summit Process and India

India has been dealing with terrorism for several decades, and is therefore constructively involved in all genuine exercises for countering the menace. As terror groups are expected to use weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), India fully supports the legal and other operational measures and mechanisms adopted by multilateral and international organisations to mitigate the risk of WMD terrorism. A resolution has been steered in the United Nations General Assembly to gain international support for fighting WMD terrorism.

The Technological Dimension of Nuclear Security

The issue of nuclear security has several dimensions including security of nuclear materials and facilities, export controls, security of technologies and development of technologies that are proliferation-resistant. Each of these dimensions needs examination from an applicable perspective. India looks at nuclear technology and nuclear materials primarily as a resource for meeting a part of its requirements for electricity.

The Arab Uprising: The Unfinished Revolutions of the New Middle East by Marc Lynch

Tunisia’s Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali was the first to fall to the thundering protests in that country in early 2010. Within a month, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak was forced out of office by masses of protesters chanting against an authoritarian government that had closed its people off from every possible political avenue available to push for greater democratisation. The slogans Irhal [Leave!] and Al-Shaab Yureed Isqat al-Nizam [The People Want to Overthrow the Regime] reverberated from a tiny town on the periphery of the Arab world in Tunisia, to as far away as Yemen.

China’s Nightmare, America’s Dream: India as the Next Global Power by William H. Avery

The rise of Asia, particularly China and India, is a significant development in the early 21st century. In the last three decades, China has transformed itself from an agricultural economy to a manufacturing economy. While China’s growing economic power has lifted more than 500 million people out of poverty, it has also modernised its defence sector. China is now playing an increasingly assertive role on the world stage. During the same period, India also registered significant progress in the economic and defence sectors.

Confronting the Bomb: Pakistani and Indian Scientists Speak Out by Pervez Hoodbhoy (ed.)

Eminent nuclear physicist Pervez Hoodbhoy and his co-authors in the seminal volume Confronting the Bomb: Pakistani and Indian Scientists Speak Out have defied the age-old perspective that nuclear weapons are the ultimate armaments of security. While courting controversy, the authors have presented nuclear issues considered taboo and yet critical. This is a bold attempt by a group of eminent scientists who ‘reject nuclear patriotism’ (p. xxii) and have delved into issues of ‘nuclear weapons, war, strategy and politics’ (p.

Reshmi Kazi |
January 2014 |
Strategic Analysis

Never Forget National Humiliation: Historical Memory in Chinese Politics and Foreign Relations by Zheng Wang

Scholars studying China are quite familiar with themes like national humiliation, nationalism as a new source of regime legitimacy vis-à-vis communism, and China’s anti-US and anti-Japan polemic. Zheng Wang’s book Never Forget National Humiliation captures the interrelated nature of these themes in a skilful manner and is a valuable addition to the study of Chinese nationalism.

Religion and Politics in South Asia by Ali Riaz (ed.)

In the post-colonial era, religion has emerged as a powerful political force in South Asia. The key question that emerges is: how and why did religion become this potent political ideology in the South Asian region? Aiming to find the answer to this question, Ali Riaz, along with other scholars from the region—namely Abdulkader Sinno, Amalendu Misra, Subho Basu, Farhat Haq and A.R.M. Imtiyaz—offers a comprehensive analysis of the interaction between religion and politics in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of Pakistan, Afghanistan and the West by Ahmad Rashid

There is immense strategic interest in the Af-Pak region. The US has spent over half a trillion dollars in Afghanistan and perhaps billions in Pakistan. NATO has spent money and sacrificed lives in Afghanistan. India, China, Russia and Iran have given large packages of aid and invested in the country. What will be the future of these trillion dollars of expenditure, huge investments and diplomatic efforts in the Af-PaK region? Ahmad Rashid offers a disturbing answer. Pakistan is on the brink of collapse, Afghanistan is in the midst of a civil war, and the Americans are pulling out.

Naser Timory |
January 2014 |
Strategic Analysis

Lee Kuan Yew: The Grandmaster’s Insights on China, the United States and the World by Graham Allison and Robert D. Blackwill with Ali Wyne

Without doubt, Lee Kuan Yew has been among the most distinguished statesmen to emerge from the ruins of post-colonial Asia. He orchestrated and led the transformation of Singapore from a poverty-stricken and war-ravaged city into a prosperous and developed city-state in less than four decades by laying robust, hybrid and sustainable economic and political structures. A disciplined, orderly and controlled democracy, Singapore has emerged as a hub for the convergence of western and eastern processes and competencies.