Strategic Analysis

President Barack Obama has detailed his strategy to degrade, defeat and ultimately destroy the Islamic State (IS) (the IS is also referred to as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS]) currently considered the most threatening of the various terrorist groups operating primarily in the Middle East. Fundamental to the success of the strategy is military action aimed at degrading the combat capabilities of the fighting elements of the IS.

• Sanu Kainikara |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led coalition coming to power in India in May 2014, the issue of illegal immigration from Bangladesh has come to the forefront once again. However, the fear is whether the debate over the issue will shed more light, leading to the resolution of the problem, or whether it will simply degenerate into political rivalry and polarisation. Illegal immigration figured prominently in the run-up to the 2014 parliamentary elections and was often raised by one of the leading political parties, the BJP.

• Anand Kumar |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

India’s global policy strategy is on the verge of major changes. Non-alignment as a cornerstone of foreign policy has become outdated given the power shifts in a multipolar world, especially through the emergence of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), which has put India in the position of being perceived as a potential new global player.

• Herbert Wulf , Tobias Debiel |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

After nearly 30 years in power, the Hosni Mubarak regime in Egypt, considered by many to be the strongest in the Arab world, collapsed suddenly in February 2011 after a mere 18 days of street protests. In this article, we try to explain the puzzling collapse of the Mubarak regime using regime transition theory. We argue that the Mubarak regime’s collapse came about as a result of four key developments, none of which were sufficient to cause the regime’s collapse, but when coalesced together exposed the regime’s lack of coercive and persuasive powers, thereby hastening its demise.

• Kirsten Henderson , Rajat Ganguly |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

The growing international influence of so-called emerging powers has had a major impact on global governance, leading to new challenges for established and emerging powers alike. This contribution outlines the expectations of established powers and the debates on the state of global governance in the field of International Relations, as well as the positions and policies of emerging powers.

• Sandra Destradi , Cord Jakobeit |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

This article examines how the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) conflict management process in the South China Sea (SCS) has been conducted and whether the ASEAN way can effectively manage the dispute, in which China is a prime and important actor. It argues that rising tensions in the South China Sea are a direct result of the changed balance of power in the region given the asymmetry between China and ASEAN members. China has taken advantage of ASEAN efforts to develop a code of conduct that is premised on the ASEAN way.

• Munmun Majumdar |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

Maritime security in the Indo-Pacific (or the Indian Ocean–Pacific Ocean continuum) has acquired salience following the shift of the centre of gravity from the Atlantic. It has brought the focus onto the trade, resources and energy lifelines that run across it. The emerging power equations marked by an assertive China, a rising India, a resurgent Japan, together with a rebalancing United States make for a potentially turbulent region.

• Udai Bhanu Singh |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

In 2013 two significant books were published dealing with the creation of Bangladesh, one by Srinath Raghavan (1971: A Global History of the Creation of Bangladesh, Permanent Black, Ranikhet) and the other under review here. In terms of their databases and analyses, they are both outstanding. This, in spite of Bass’s reminder that the most sensitive wartime records remain classified and at times even White House tapes are edited to maintain secrecy (p. 289).

• Partha S. Ghosh |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

It is clear that the Asia Pacific is a platform where various actors can be seen playing wide-ranging roles. The United States is considered one of the existing influential powers playing the role of a security provider, at least partially. On the other hand, an emerging power like India, which is expected to be more responsible and visible in the Asia Pacific region, faces several challenges both at the national and international level. David Brewster’s book discusses India’s ambitions and capabilities as well as its limitations and challenges in becoming an Asia Pacific power.

• Sampa Kundu |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

The history of the 20th century has for a long time looked at the inhospitable Russian Tundra in winter as the most hostile battleground that armies could experience. Hitler’s defeat at Stalingrad in the bleak winter of 1942 and the decimation of his Panzer divisions by hardy and acclimatised Russian forces remains one of the key turning points of World War II.

• Arjun Subramaniam |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

Mark Fitzpatrick’s book Overcoming Pakistan’s Nuclear Dangers makes a courageous attempt in advocating recognition of Pakistan as a ‘normal nuclear state’ (p. 12). The author asserts that the international community must now refrain from making Pakistan pay for its 2004 AQ Khan debacle and recognise that ‘the time has come to offer Pakistan a nuclear cooperation deal akin to India’ (p. 162).

• Reshmi Kazi |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

The Maoist insurgency and the internal security response, which in part flows from India’s security architecture, have become increasingly relevant in the recent past. The Maoist threat has repeatedly been referred to as the gravest internal challenge to India’s security. The impact of this threat, along with terrorism in the hinterland, has exposed the inadequacies of the country’s internal security capacities. Therefore, a book dealing with the two is a timely addition to the literature, in the Indian context.

• Vivek Chadha |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

‘My, I always thought he was the peaceable sort’, remarked Jacqueline Kennedy, sitting next to her husband in the White House in the late evening of October 25, 1962. She had just read a letter written to John F. Kennedy from Jawaharlal Nehru, the first of three crucial letters seeking US military assistance during the Indo-China war in 1962.

• Aniruddh Mohan |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

In his Murmansk speech in 1987, Gorbachev proposed the Arctic as the shortest sea route linking Europe to the Far East and the Pacific Ocean, triggering a new perspective on the region.1 Since then, the 1991 Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy (AEPS), referred to as the Finnish Initiative, has been created as a multilateral, non-binding agreement among Arctic states to protect the environment by monitoring, assessment, emergency preparedness/response, and conservation of the Arctic zone.

• Jong Deog Kim |
• November 2014 |
• Strategic Analysis

For nearly a quarter of the past century a series of notable changes have taken place in the Arctic. All of them, whether political, economical, environmental or climate-related, inevitably had an impact on regional and global governance. This commentary mainly focuses on the role of China in Arctic affairs in the context of global change and global governance.

• Ye Jiang |
• November 2014 |
• Strategic Analysis

The Arctic Ocean is melting. Essentially, this means that new sea routes will open up for international navigation, and large resources, especially oil and gas, lying underneath the frozen ice will become more accessible and exploitable. Therefore, in the emerging contemporary debates concerning the Arctic, two important questions are raised: what is the legal regime that applies to navigation in new shipping routes that will open up with the melting of Arctic ice and what is the legal regime that governs the exploitation of the vast oil and gas resources?

• H.P. Rajan |
• November 2014 |
• Strategic Analysis

South Korea is not a traditional Arctic state, but it has several key interests in the region. This article explores the sources of those interests and the country’s commercial activities in the Arctic in the areas of shipping, shipbuilding and hydrocarbons. Since the country’s polar interests transcend commerce, however, attention is also paid to the importance of science and research and development in Korean culture.

• Mia M. Bennett |
• November 2014 |
• Strategic Analysis

A global temperature rise is being experienced earliest and most intensely in the Arctic region. The changes are worrying but the commercial interests are equally enticing. The Arctic is witnessing the convergence of the geophysical, the geo-economic and the geostrategic in strange and dramatic ways, making it a paradox and an antithesis. For India, the Arctic is distant when it comes to economic interests and near when it comes to climate change.

• Uttam Kumar Sinha , Arvind Gupta |
• November 2014 |
• Strategic Analysis

Russia places a high strategic priority on the Arctic from a security perspective, in view of the need to secure the Northern Sea Route as well as develop natural resources in the region. While large-scale snap military inspections were taking place in Russia’s Far East in July 2013, five Chinese navy vessels passed into the Sea of Okhotsk—the first such instance in history.

• Shinji Hyodo |
• November 2014 |
• Strategic Analysis

This article discusses the type of partnership Russia pursues towards China in the Arctic. Through evidence, the author finds that while Russia may be aiming for an overall strategic partnership, Arctic developments on the whole conclude on a pragmatic approach. Russia needs assistance to develop the Arctic and an eastward diversification is opportune. Russia’s energy development in the Arctic indicates an emerging strategic co-operation with China, but policies towards Beijing concerning the Arctic Council and the Northern Sea Route prove to be more pragmatic.

• Tom Røseth |
• November 2014 |
• Strategic Analysis