Strategic Analysis

Whither Oil Prices? India’s Choices

President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal has sent oil prices soaring again. Even prior to the May 8, 2018 announcement, after falling to below $30 a barrel in early 2016, oil prices were on the boil again, belying the projections of market analysts, including those of the respected International Energy Agency (IEA), that the era of $100 plus per barrel of oil was over. The projections were based on the assumption that nations would move increasingly away from oil—and coal—to meet their carbon mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement.

Transforming Eastern South Asia: Relevance of BIMSTEC

Of late the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is receiving sincere attention from its member countries as an organisation that has the potential to transform the region’s political and economic future. This is because there are several bilateral and sub-regional ongoing projects that are seeking to connect the region and bind them together into one economic whole. Apart from this, after the cancellation of the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) summit in 2017, many would see the BIMSTEC as an alternative to SAARC.

Human Security Approach to Internal Security: Case Study of Reconciliation and Insurgency in Tamenglong, Manipur

Human security as a concept contends that the appropriate referent for peace and security should be the individual instead of the state. This Essay explores whether a human security-centred approach, i.e., a focus on the individual citizen’s concerns and security complements rather than contradicts state and national security.

Indian Diaspora in Reunion Island: A Strategic Asset

Wherever Indians have migrated, they have carried with them their culture, which has subsequently served to build multi-layered bridges with their country of origin. The article studies the Indian migration to the French territory of Reunion Islands located in the southwestern Indian Ocean and delves into various factors, including the historical, demographic, socio-economic aspects of the evolution of the Indian diaspora.

Securing Peace? Regime Types and Security Sector Reform in the Patani (Thailand) and Bangsamoro (the Philippines) Peace Processes, 2011–2016

This article examines how regime types shape security sector reforms, that are integral to the peace processes in Thailand’s Patani and the Philippines’ Mindanao.

AKP, the Arab Spring and the Unravelling of the Turkey ‘Model’

The rise of the Adalet ve Kalk?nma Partisi (AKP), its domestic and foreign policy successes and its early response to the Arab Spring made it popular in the Arab world. Many inside Turkey, the US and the Arab world saw the AKP as an Islamist party with a difference, that could be a ‘model’ for the Arab countries struggling with a democratic deficit.

The Evolution of China’s Southern Frontier: Cartographical Encroachments on Indian Territory, 1922–1960

The People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s case on the Sino–Indian boundary question has not received the sort of attention it deserves with the result very little is known about it. While India appears to have inherited its northern frontier from the British with some ambiguities, Manchu China’s territorial bequest to the Republic of China (RoC), in comparison, is more straightforward. Both foreign and Indian writers have subjected the Indian case to rigorous scrutiny. However, the PRC’s case has, thus far, escaped similar scrutiny.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative and India’s Concerns

The successful conclusion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Summit in Beijing recently has raised a number of questions about India’s strategy to counter the Chinese project. The One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative which China is implementing along with other partners is primarily aimed at strengthening its economy which was impacted by the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. Through this flagship scheme China will develop large-scale projects in infrastructure such as roads, railway lines, sea ports and airports.

Indian Nuclear Policy—1964–98 (A Personal Recollection)

This is a personal recollection of the author on the evolution of the Indian nuclear policy and developments leading to the Shakti tests. Since it draws solely upon the author’s memory there could be errors and discrepancies in the account. This has been written in an effort to present a coherent and comprehensive account of the Indian nuclear policy, since, in the absence of an authoritative official document, there are considerable dissensions and misperceptions in the country.

Nuclear Arms Race in South Asia? – An Analysis

Ever since India and Pakistan conducted their nuclear tests in 1998, it has been the favourite pastime of many analysts writing on nuclear issues to cast the strategic stability in South Asia in dark tones. This urban myth is primarily a Western invention although at times writers in the subcontinent as well have taken some part in it.