Strategic Analysis

Whither Oil Prices? India’s Choices

President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal has sent oil prices soaring again. Even prior to the May 8, 2018 announcement, after falling to below $30 a barrel in early 2016, oil prices were on the boil again, belying the projections of market analysts, including those of the respected International Energy Agency (IEA), that the era of $100 plus per barrel of oil was over. The projections were based on the assumption that nations would move increasingly away from oil—and coal—to meet their carbon mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement.

Transforming Eastern South Asia: Relevance of BIMSTEC

Of late the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is receiving sincere attention from its member countries as an organisation that has the potential to transform the region’s political and economic future. This is because there are several bilateral and sub-regional ongoing projects that are seeking to connect the region and bind them together into one economic whole. Apart from this, after the cancellation of the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) summit in 2017, many would see the BIMSTEC as an alternative to SAARC.

Human Security Approach to Internal Security: Case Study of Reconciliation and Insurgency in Tamenglong, Manipur

Human security as a concept contends that the appropriate referent for peace and security should be the individual instead of the state. This Essay explores whether a human security-centred approach, i.e., a focus on the individual citizen’s concerns and security complements rather than contradicts state and national security.

Indian Diaspora in Reunion Island: A Strategic Asset

Wherever Indians have migrated, they have carried with them their culture, which has subsequently served to build multi-layered bridges with their country of origin. The article studies the Indian migration to the French territory of Reunion Islands located in the southwestern Indian Ocean and delves into various factors, including the historical, demographic, socio-economic aspects of the evolution of the Indian diaspora.

Securing Peace? Regime Types and Security Sector Reform in the Patani (Thailand) and Bangsamoro (the Philippines) Peace Processes, 2011–2016

This article examines how regime types shape security sector reforms, that are integral to the peace processes in Thailand’s Patani and the Philippines’ Mindanao.

AKP, the Arab Spring and the Unravelling of the Turkey ‘Model’

The rise of the Adalet ve Kalk?nma Partisi (AKP), its domestic and foreign policy successes and its early response to the Arab Spring made it popular in the Arab world. Many inside Turkey, the US and the Arab world saw the AKP as an Islamist party with a difference, that could be a ‘model’ for the Arab countries struggling with a democratic deficit.

The Evolution of China’s Southern Frontier: Cartographical Encroachments on Indian Territory, 1922–1960

The People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s case on the Sino–Indian boundary question has not received the sort of attention it deserves with the result very little is known about it. While India appears to have inherited its northern frontier from the British with some ambiguities, Manchu China’s territorial bequest to the Republic of China (RoC), in comparison, is more straightforward. Both foreign and Indian writers have subjected the Indian case to rigorous scrutiny. However, the PRC’s case has, thus far, escaped similar scrutiny.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative and India’s Concerns

The successful conclusion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Summit in Beijing recently has raised a number of questions about India’s strategy to counter the Chinese project. The One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative which China is implementing along with other partners is primarily aimed at strengthening its economy which was impacted by the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. Through this flagship scheme China will develop large-scale projects in infrastructure such as roads, railway lines, sea ports and airports.

Indian Nuclear Policy—1964–98 (A Personal Recollection)

This is a personal recollection of the author on the evolution of the Indian nuclear policy and developments leading to the Shakti tests. Since it draws solely upon the author’s memory there could be errors and discrepancies in the account. This has been written in an effort to present a coherent and comprehensive account of the Indian nuclear policy, since, in the absence of an authoritative official document, there are considerable dissensions and misperceptions in the country.

Nuclear Arms Race in South Asia? – An Analysis

Ever since India and Pakistan conducted their nuclear tests in 1998, it has been the favourite pastime of many analysts writing on nuclear issues to cast the strategic stability in South Asia in dark tones. This urban myth is primarily a Western invention although at times writers in the subcontinent as well have taken some part in it.

India’s Deterrence and Disarmament: The Impact of Pokhran-II

After the nuclear weapons tests of May 11, 1998, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee made a matter-of-fact statement:

“I have an announcement to make: today at 3:45 p.m., India conducted three underground nuclear tests in the Pokhran range…. These were contained explosions like the experiment conducted in May 1974….”

US–Soviet/Russian Dialogue on the Nuclear Weapons Programme of India

The history of the US–Soviet and US–Russian dialogues on the nuclear weapons programme of India can be divided into two major periods: First, from Pokhran I up to the end of the 1990s, when Moscow and Washington shared concerns regarding India’s nuclear programme, and even their bilateral disagreements in international affairs did not stop them from reaching a consensus on how to react to the 1974 nuclear test.

Nuclear Armed for Uncertain Times

India can look back with more than a fair measure of satisfaction on the past two decades since its nuclear weapon tests of May 1998. Those tests signalled a strategic shift. This article therefore looks at the international situation and tendencies that prevailed in the run up to these tests. It then presents an assessment of the international reaction as a consequence of that bold and courageous action

Nuclear India and the Global Nuclear Order

The 1998 nuclear tests conducted by India heralded yet another nuclear age. The instant response of a section of the international community was highly pessimistic. It foresaw regional instability, collapse of the global nuclear order and serious crisis in the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. As a result, overlooking India’s security imperatives, a number of countries reacted with hostility against the Indian nuclear tests. Even international organisations were mobilised against India.

Post-Pokhran II: Emerging Global Nuclear Order and India’s Nuclear Challenge

Post-Pokhran II the global nuclear environment has changed both in terms of developing niche technologies as also the nuclear strategies. Apart from the traditional challenges, there are new threats emerging in the form of cyber, space, hypersonic glide vehicles, nuclear terrorism, etc. The development of multiple nuclear dyads and triads further makes the security environment increasingly complex, as nations now have to deal with multiple nuclear problems and adversaries.

Military Dimensions of a Multipolar World: Implications for Global Governance

For a decade after the Cold War it seemed that multilateral governance might take root under US leadership, including a reinvigorated United Nations and a strengthened international legal framework. The nuclear explosive devices tested by India in 1998 took place in a pivotal period when the so-called ‘unipolar moment’ of the US began to be challenged by states that were not satisfied such an arrangement could advance their national interests.

Pokhran 20 Years After: Did the World Change?

Was the 1998 Pokhran test a historical watershed as many contemporary observers believed? This article looks at its impact on the nuclear non-proliferation regime, regional security, India’s position in global institutions, and the ongoing global power shift: the non-proliferation regime continued along the old dispute lines; regional conflict behaviour did not change at all; India grew into global institutions not because of nuclear tests but because of her remarkable economic development; the re-arrangement of global power follows more basic trends as well.

Walking Back Delusional Nuclear Policies

India’s ‘dual use’ nuclear policy has been strung out from the beginning between the peaceful atom and military atom as illustrated in Jawaharlal Nehru’s use of the phrase for the country’s nuclear energy programme—‘Janus-faced’. However, the Indian Government has been too influenced by its own rhetoric of peaceful use to equally emphasise the security aspects that the phrase implied.

How Sri Lanka Walked into a Debt Trap, and the Way Out

Sri Lankans love to project their country as the land of serendipity. So, when the island country saw the back of a four-decade-old violent Tamil insurgency in 2009, it was expected that it would surge ahead in a serendipitous way. The turn of events ever since has, however, proved that the country has not been that fortunate. In fact, immediately after the conclusion of the war, Sri Lanka (re)lapsed into multiple crises, occasioned by a regime which functioned in an authoritarian manner.

The Unlikely Friends: Iranian–Latin American Relations and Washington’s Anxiety

Although Iran and the Latin American states appear to be unlikely allies when considering the vast distances and the religious, cultural and demographic differences between these regions, their shared experience of Washington’s hegemonistic designs have brought them closer. Washington’s failure to isolate Tehran has meant that the Islamic Republic, and Hezbollah, have prioritised relationship-building with states that are at the doorstep of the US. Although this has antagonised the US, Washington has only offered a weak reaction to the economic and geopolitical advances made by Iran.