Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
मनोहर पर्रिकर रक्षा अध्ययन एवं विश्लेषण संस्थान

Strategic Analysis

The Elusive Quest for an ‘Asian NATO’

The turn of the twenty-first century brought with it the miraculous economic rise of China in Asia and beyond; American strategy towards the region, denoted by the ‘pivot to Asia’ and acceptance of a ‘Pacific Century’ for the US,1 became increasingly China-centric. Building partnerships, forging security and commercial pacts with Asian countries and enhancing maritime presence across the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) eventually became the fulcrum of America’s Asia strategy, with mainstream strategic perception in the United States on China becoming increasingly negative.

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The KMT’s Predicament: Cross-Strait Relations and Taiwan’s Domestic Politics

On October 6, 2020, Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan (parliament) passed two important Resolutions, moved by the main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT). These sought to ensure ‘US military aid in combating aggression by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’ and ‘a resumption of diplomatic relations between the US and Taiwan.’1 The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supported the Resolutions. Such a bipartisan consensus is rare in Taiwan’s deeply divided politics.

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Strategic Use of Cam Ranh Bay in Vietnam’s External Relations with Major Powers

The article focuses on analyzing the ‘Cam Ranh policy’ of the Vietnamese government as well as the implementation of this policy since 2002 via its relations with major powers such as Russia, the United States and Japan. The article indicates that these great powers have a significant presence in Cam Ranh Bay. While the China factor is an important cause of American and Japanese interest in Cam Ranh, the traditional relationship with Vietnam and the Far East policy are the driving the choices of Russia in the region.

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Modeling Attribution of Cyber Attacks Using Bayesian Belief Networks

The article makes an attempt to bring to the fore the various factors which are considered in the due process of attribution of a cyber-attack and the correlation of credible attribution with cyber deterrence. The focal point of the article is a three-step approach to model the decision-making process behind attribution of cyber-attacks using Bayesian Belief Networks and a case study to elucidate on the functioning of the model.

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The Sino-Indian Geopolitics and Maritime Security of the Indian Ocean Region

The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is a prominent arena in international politics, in terms of trade, tourism, population, among other aspects. Several countries, some unconnected geographically, have shown interest in these waters. These entities offer financial, technical, infrastructural and capacity-building support, and security services to several IOR countries. India, the prominent resident power of this ocean, and others, consider this development unnecessary, uncalled for and unacceptable.

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India’s Oil Imports from the US: How Beneficial Are They?

India has been importing oil from the US to diversify away from the Middle Eastern Crudes. However, the weak oil demand, with attendant supply glut and contest for market share are reshaping global energy politics. This article examines the extent to which increasing oil imports from the US would be conducive for India's energy needs and the possible trade-off for the Indian refineries.

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President Trump’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ Campaign and Iran’s Endgame

Iran—US relations are in a state of flux due to President Trump’s draconian sanctions, what is dubbed the ‘maximum pressure’ campaign, to force Iran to renegotiate the 2015 nuclear deal. Iran’s ‘counter pressure’ policy, in contrast, has sought to blunt the effects of sanctions and compel the Trump administration to return to the nuclear deal. This article examines the basic thrust, goals and shortcomings of Trump’s anti-Iran campaign, and also explores Iran’s policy choices and responses to face off Trump’s campaign of ‘maximum pressure’.

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China’s India Policy in the 1950s: From Friendship to Antagonism

What led to the Sino-Indian militarized confrontations in 1959? I argue that Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai became a victim of changed perceptions in China. As long as China’s external and internal environment was relatively secure, India was seen as a potential ally, and Sino-Indian relations thrived. As external and internal pressures on China mounted, India’s behaviour vis-à-vis the Dalai Lama’s flight from China and the territorial dispute was perceived by China as reactionary.

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Expanding Role of PLAAF in China’s National Security Strategy

China’s great power ambition and actions have been fuelled by its spectacular economic growth and military modernization. The need to sustain the economy and energy flow makes the East and South China seas vital to it. Its vulnerabilities also lie on its seaboard. To dominate the maritime spaces, it needs to own the contiguous airspace as well. The prescient Chinese leadership has transformed its Air Force into a strategic instrument of power, to protect its economic lifelines, geo-political interests and regional dominance.

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