Strategic Analysis

Gilgit-Baltistan in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir has witnessed a series of political disturbances and violence over the past years. Though many analysts have viewed the often-violent assertions by otherwise peaceful residents of this remote and mountainous region as occasional eruptions of the Shia-Sunni sectarian divide, a careful examination will indicate the deeper roots of alienation of the population in this long-neglected region.

• Alok Bansal
• January 2008 |
• Strategic Analysis
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With the discovery of substantial gas in Myanmar's Sittwe region in the Rakhine state, India was keen to acquire gas from some of the new finds in the Shwe gas field, divided in several blocks, of which A-1 and A-2 blocks were closer to India and also estimated to have the best recoverable reserves. Given the geographical location, overland pipelines transiting through Bangladesh are the most cost-effective way of getting gas from Myanmar to India. Despite its initial enthusiasm, Bangladesh backtracked from its earlier willingness to be a partner to the tripartite pipeline.

• Sreeradha Datta
• January 2008 |
• Strategic Analysis
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Tokyo looks at energy security differently than does Washington, or other major global capitals. This persistent and deepening reality—so incongruously at odds with the continual affirmations of solidarity and alliance in the US–Japan bilateral relationship—has substantial grounding in economics. Yet, the contrast in mindset between Japan and the broader world is sharply amplified by differences in domestic institutions and politics. This perceptual gap has major implications for East Asia's energy future and for global geopolitics as well.

• Kent E. Calder
• January 2008 |
• Strategic Analysis
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• Greg Mills
• January 2008 |
• Strategic Analysis
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The Taliban are proving to be increasingly irrepressible. They seem to be adapting, faster than expected, to the challenges confronting them. Although in terms of weaponry they cannot match the vastly superior Western forces, in terms of propaganda, psyops and operational reach they are proving to be a force to reckon with. In retrospect one can say that the Taliban made good use of the time made available to them by the United States when it shifted its focus towards Iraq in late 2002.

• Vishal Chandra
• January 2008 |
• Strategic Analysis
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• Sukanya Podder
• January 2008 |
• Strategic Analysis
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Today, it is necessary for India to respond to the current crisis of the NPT and weigh its options vis-a-vis the Treaty. This paper is an attempt to explore answers to the question of what ought to be India's policy in the light of the new nuclear reality. It analyses three policy options that India could pursue and concludes that India must strive to join the NPT as a nuclear weapon country, because joining the non-proliferation regime by evading the NPT is likely to prove costly and is also unlikely to remove destabilizing irritants.

• Rajiv Nayan
• November 2007 |
• Strategic Analysis
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As the world's fastest growing energy consumer, China has attracted enormous attention over the last few years. This paper looks at the factors influencing China's policies and strategies in its search for energy security and examines whether China can be persuaded to adopt a more integrative stance with respect to energy. It argues that China's pursuit of a policy to secure preferential access to oil and gas resources in politically unstable states could lead to heightened competition with other major importing states and to geopolitical tensions.

• Shebonti Ray Dadwal
• November 2007 |
• Strategic Analysis
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King Gyanendra's takeover of absolute political power in February 2005 paved the way for the Maoists of Nepal and the political parties to fight together for democracy. In signing the 12-point agreement with the Seven Party Alliance (SPA), the Maoists even changed their strategy from a revolutionary agenda to a democratic one. The paper argues that the Maoist departure from the classical resistance model to the path of negotiation was tactical, to overcome the constraints on their way forward.

• Nihar R. Nayak
• November 2007 |
• Strategic Analysis
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The Tamil minority in Sri Lanka have traditionally exerted a sympathetic pull on their co-ethnics in Tamil Nadu. This has inevitably influenced India's policy towards Sri Lanka. The assassination of Rajiv Gandhi in 1991 changed this pattern and the popular sympathy for Tamil militancy ebbed considerably in its aftermath.

• M. Mayilvaganan
• November 2007 |
• Strategic Analysis
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